China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- - CHINA WILL STAY THE COURSE, DESPITE SLOWING GROWTH
- - BOJ IS LASER-FOCUSED ON WAGE NEGOTIATIONS
- - KOREAN EXPORTS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM CHIP UPCYCLE
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Still sluggish, hit by waning demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC yesterday announced an RRR cut; we see this as mainly to facilitate government-bond issuance.
- Governor Pan said RRR adjustments would drive down the LPR; a Q1 cut still seems likely.
- The big picture: China is relying on fiscal support to prop up growth, 2024 is likely to see token rate cuts.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ maintained its easy policy settings yesterday, while raising hopes for a change...
- ...Governor Ueda sees more chance of attaining the price target, given events in the spring wage talks.
- Q2 seems the most likely timing for negative rates to end, even if unwarranted by fundamentals.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ keeps policy steady; Governor Ueda confirms focus on the spring wage round
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ keeps policy steady; Governor Ueda confirms focus on the spring wage round
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean 20-day exports fell in January, defying our expectation for a continued rise.
- But this is likely a blip; exports to the US slowed sharply, despite still-strong consumption there.
- A surge in AI-related chip demand is likely to drive a gradual recovery in Korean exports this year.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean exports are stuttering, hit by slowing shipments to the US
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean exports stutter in January; China's LPR is kept on hold
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japanese inflation continues slowing trend; the BoJ should stay put next week
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japanese inflation continues slowing trend; the BoJ should stay put
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japanese consumer inflation continued to cool in December, led by falling food and energy inflation.
- Core inflation excluding fresh food fell to 2.3% year-over-year, just above the BoJ’s 2% target.
- The BoJ is likely to end negative interest rates in Q2, though an argument for delaying this is building.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s developer financing fell further in December, despite a new round of regulatory support.
- Residential property-price declines also worsened, as investors offloaded excess properties.
- More homebuyer support will likely be needed to drive a property-sector recovery.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Chinese GDP slowed q/q, hit by fading property and consumption spending
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s real GDP growth slowed in Q4, hit by property-sector woes and soft consumption.
- Targeted stimulus is giving a modest lift to manufacturing and fixed asset investment.
- Industrial output is holding up relatively well, with carmakers bullish about prospects for this year.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold, gauging the impact of other easing measures
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged yesterday, as policymakers assess the impact of recent easing.
- Headline consumer inflation improved slightly in December, but core inflation remains sluggish.
- Excess capacity is likely to weigh on manufactured goods prices in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s M2 growth fell in December, amid soft mortgage loan demand.
- Government-bond issuance is supporting social financing growth, despite slowing loan growth.
- The PBoC announced an additional RMB500B PSL quota, to fund projects like urban redevelopment.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufactured goods producer price decline is continuing unabated
Duncan WrigleyChina+
