Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- China’s manufacturing sector hit a soft patch in October
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s manufacturing sector hit a soft patch in October
- Japan’s final PMI points to moderate activity decline
- Korean manufacturing PMI shows leading signs of stabilising demand
- Korean exports rise in October for the first time in 12 months, owing to base effects
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ makes tweak to yield curve control policy, while expecting core inflation to fall in 2024
- China’s fall in manufacturing activity reinforces the need for continued economic support
- China’s infrastructure construction activity is holding up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Fed preserves optionality, but two rounds of softer jobs and CPI data should keep them on hold.
- Unit labor costs growth is slowing sharply, signalling low inflation once the Covid echoes fade.
- Unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing signals a renewed slowdown and an inventory correction.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The rise in bund yields since summer is driven by a higher term premium, from a depressed level.
- Medium-term forecasts for the ECB’s policy rate suggest that the term premium could rise further.
- We still see a near-term fall in bond yields as core inflation undershoots the ECB’s expectations.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The NLW looks set to rise by about 7% next April, while the Real Living Wage has just been increased by 10%.
- Fewer people than last year, however, are paid the NLW, and supermarkets may shrink their premium to the NLW.
- Now ample labour market slack will bear down on pay rises offered to the bulk of employees not on the NLW.
Samuel TombsUK
- U.S. - Unemployment Likely will Rise even if Job Gains Remain Close to 200K
- EUROZONE- A Dovish ECB, Despite No Talk of Rate Cuts Next Year
- U.K. - MPC Won’t Hint at 2024 Rate Cuts Just Yet, Despite Data Surprises
- CHINA+ - More Stimulus Provides a Growth Cushion Going into 2024
- EM ASIA - BSP’s Off-Cycle Rate Hike a Rash Move; Expect No More This Quarter
- LATAM - We Still Expect Brazil’s Selic Rate to Be Cut to Around 7% Next Year
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Labor cost inflation is slowing; further progress likely, depressing core services PCE inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Consumers' confidence likely to rebound from here; the manufacturing recovery is stalling.
US
In one line: EZ headline inflation will snap back in coming months; GDP is going nowhere.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Avoided a technical recession, just.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BoJ announced another change to make itsyield curve control policy more flexible yesterday.
- The switch to a soft "reference" target, from a hard cap, is likely to lead investors to test the BoJ.
- The Bank is likely to hold the line, just, until U.S. yields fall next year, relieving pressure on the JPY.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Fed will stick to its position today that policy optionality is still required; inflation not yet beaten.
- ISM manufacturing has likely stalled; the modest uptick in the sector has run into the spike in rates.
- Auto sales probably rose marginally in October, but the overall trend is about flat.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- EZ inflation plunged in October, but energy inflation will snap back in November and December.
- We still see a much quicker fall in core inflation than the ECB between now and March.
- GDP in the Eurozone fell slightly in Q3, and we look for another poor quarter in Q4, with zero growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely fell sharply in October, driven chiefly by the energy component...
- ...but BRC and Eurozone data are consistent with further declines in food and core goods CPI inflation too.
- Our headline rate forecast, 4.6%, is 0.3pp below the MPC’s, but is subject to revision as more data come in.
UK