Tokyo inflation slows due to implementation of free high school education and cooling food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ resists JPY market pressure in keeping the policy rate target range steady
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ holds the policy rate steady; Tokyo consumer inflation cools, thanks to education subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI improves on higher output and weak JPY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI improves on higher output and weak JPY; services activity expands amid higher cost pressure
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Housing market activity likely to slow sharply in Q2.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING IN JUNE...
- ...IF THE INFLATION AND WAGE DATA COOPERATE
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Surging, will spending follow confidence up?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Q1 data suggest upside risk to our 0.28% March core PCE forecast, but 0.3% rounded still looks likely.
- Q1 GDP growth was better beneath the hood; the headline was hit by a big foreign trade drag...
- ...But expect drags in Q2 from inventories and residential investment, as well as slowing consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Banxico will likely keep rates on hold after the upside surprise in headline inflation in early April.
- Disinflation is likely to resume in late Q2, allowing policymakers to resume cuts, the Fed permitting.
- Economic activity in Argentina continued to falter in Q1, but the EMAE report reveals positive signs.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- China’s structural problems, notably in the property sector, are limiting the efficacy of interest rate cuts.
- But varied public views on the management of bond yields hint at a broader internal policy debate.
- Labour-market issues are compounded by credit constraints for private firms, especially SMEs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- A pick-up in services production boosted French growth in Q1; Q2 is set for further improvement, just.
- Forecast upgrades in Germany and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1.
- Political uncertainty is increasing in Spain, as the Prime Minister mulls resignation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Month-to-month falls in the Nationwide and Halifax house-price indices in March were a blip.
- Mortgage interest rates will resume their gentle decline in May, and estate agents remain upbeat.
- We expect house prices to rise 4% year-over-year in Q4 2024 and the same again in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Rounding off another weak quarter for equipment investment.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Banxico likely to move to the sidelines next month.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Durable orders were stronger than we expected in March, but they still fell in Q1 as a whole.
- GDP likely rose by 2.6% in Q1; this week's data have triggered only marginal changes in our forecast.
- Time lags and generous seasonals mean today's initial claims data likely will be little changed, again.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
