In one line: Pointing to better times ahead for the economic surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The slowdown is becoming broad-based.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The slowdown is becoming broad-based.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Headline lifted by large orders, and revisions signal downside risks to the initial Q3 GDP estimate.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Indonesia’s Q3 GDP miss is worse than it looks
The government’s fuel price cuts brings about deflation in Thailand
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The gradual downshift in job growth continues, but labor demand is not collapsing.
- If unemployment hits 4%, the Fed will struggle to jus- tify sticking to the line that it could hike again.
- Wage growth is slowing, with a further softening in the pipeline; further policy tightening is unnecessary.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s COPOM cut the Selic rate by 50bp, and will keep this pace, as global risks are now a threat.
- A faster easing cycle is needed as the economy struggles and inflation remains in check.
- COPOM will be more dovish in Q1, potentially allowing bigger cuts, assuming the fiscal situation is benign.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Singapore is likely to remain elevated at 4.1% next year, but down from 5.0% in 2023...
- ...As the GST hike, higher regulated transport and commodity prices fuel inflationary pressures.
- Thankfully, COE prices—a key driver of inflation this year—are likely to moderate from H2 2024.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The EZ unemployment rate will rise further, but prob- ably not enough to sway ECB hawks...
- ...Still, we think the Bank will cut rates come March, as inflation likely will fall faster than it expects.
- Unemployment will rise most in industry, which will stay in recession until global trade recovers.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Signalling softer spending on services after the summer blowout.
US
The rebalancing continues; chance of a Dec hike dips further
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Still pointing to a mild recession, but the survey is probably too downbeat.
Samuel TombsUK
In one line: Net exports in goods were virtually flat in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: French industry stuttered at the end of Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
