- Producer prices fall at a faster pace, thanks to volatility in global energy and commodity prices
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China FX reserves fall for the third straight month as capital outflow continues
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: Disinflation, at the headline level, remains fully on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Government spending saves the Philippines’ Q3 GDP
Philippine sales entered Q4 with encouraging momentum
Indonesian retail sales will be ending 2023 still below the pre-Covid level
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Households’ debt service ratios have edged higher since the Fed starting raising rates, but remain low.
- Debt service costs will rise further, but are unlikely to trigger sudden cuts to discretionary spending.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely improved in November, and inflation expectations probably fell.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s retail sector ended Q3 on a solid footing, but growth momentum will continue to slow.
- Chile’s disinflation continues, leaving the door open to further rate cuts as the economy struggles.
- The major threat in the very near term is politics, but calm will emerge after the storm.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP growth in the Philippines surprised to the upside in Q3, leaping to 5.9%, from 4.3% in Q2...
- ...But largely thanks to an unsustainable bounce in public spending; fiscal consolidation isn’t over.
- Consumption continues to slow amid weak balance sheets, while lacklustre investment is here to stay.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The central message from ECB policymakers is still that interest rates won’t be lowered any time soon...
- ...but we still see a path to a first rate cut in March, as core inflation undershoots the ECB’s forecasts.
- Sticky wage growth and rising unit labour costs are the main threats to our forecasts for cuts in H1 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Our base case forecast is immaculate disinflation; no recession but inflation heading back to the target.
- The net risk, though, is of a steeper downturn as businesses react to margin pressure with big layoffs.
- In that case, inflation will fall faster and the Fed will cut aggressively, but credit and some stocks will suffer.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Global uncertainty to remain the key driver
- Argentina — Fluctuating on the political news
- Colombia — Subdued despite better politics
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China saw a smaller decline of $13.8B in its FX reserves, to $3,101B, in October...
- ...Thanks to a less significant valuation effect and lower capital outflows via the Stock Connects.
- We expect capital outflows to moderate in Q4 as fundamentals strengthen on stimulus measures.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: Disinflation is fully on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid finish to Q3, but the near-term outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Slide in inflation is in full swing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Confirming that net exports were a drag on GDP in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
