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8th Nov 2023 18:42US, Daily Monitor

  • Our base case forecast is immaculate disinflation; no recession but inflation heading back to the target.
  • The net risk, though, is of a steeper downturn as businesses react to margin pressure with big layoffs.
  • In that case, inflation will fall faster and the Fed will cut aggressively, but credit and some stocks will suffer.

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Keywords for: 9 November 2023 US Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence