- We expect India’s Q3 GDP at end-November to show a big drop in growth to 4.2%, from 7.8% in Q2.
- The flattering boost from discrepancies in Q2 is unreliable, and consumption was weak in Q3.
- Disinflation, which continued in October, will likely partly unwind in the short run, due to onion prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Falling EZ inflation and our call for policy rate cuts mean we do not expect faster ECB QT...
- ...The Bank has pushed ahead with conflicting policies before, however, so the risk remain.
- If we are wrong, the most likely rate of faster ECB balance-sheet shrinkage is tiny, just €30B per month.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Slowing core inflation will make the next few months of headline stubbornness easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Slowing core inflation will make the next few months of headline stubbornness easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The jump in inflation expectations probably is temporary, but the Fed won't like it.
US
- In one line: A broad-based moderation, as favourable base effects reverse partially.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A broad-based moderation, as favourable base effects reverse partially.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: The first quarterly increase since mid-2022.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Banxico kept interest rates on hold, as widely expected, but started to lay the ground for rate cuts.
- Falling inflation and a dovish Fed have the potential to open the door to rate cuts as early as next month.
- Inflation continues to fall, and we are confident that underlying pressures will remain subdued.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- House Republicans are yet to coalesce around a funding plan that could pass the Senate…
- …That might change, but right now a government shutdown starting at midnight Friday looks likely.
- The spike in inflation expectations will reverse, but Fed policymakers will be unhappy in the meantime.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Thailand’s Q3 GDP report next Monday should show a leap in growth to 2.9%, from 1.8% in Q2…
- …But this will be due largely to a material drop in imports; domestic demand likely weakened further.
- Retail sales momentum in Indonesia remains lackluster, keeping price-hike expectations at bay.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chinese auto sales picked up in October, in a positive sign for consumer demand....
- ...But sluggish sentiment and a still-high savings rate point to a tepid recovery in 2024.
- Producer prices fell in October, due to excess capacity and soft demand, at home and abroad.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Italian GDP will probably fall in Q4, even if revisions don’t show it declined in the third quarter.
- Budget negotiations are heating up; BTP yields will stay high next year despite a likely fall in spreads.
- Spain may end the year with a government after all, but this won’t change the economic outlook.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Disinflation, at the headline level, remains fully on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
Nudging back up, but no sustained increase visible on the near horizon
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- China resumes consumer price deflation in October and is dragged down by food and core prices
- Producer prices fall at a faster pace, thanks to volatility in global energy and commodity prices
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
