Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence to stay rangebound for the rest of the year.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity looks subdued but stable, it should recover in H2.
Jump in underlying orders looks unsustainable.
- We look for a mere 75K rise in payrolls, despite the rebound in stock prices and decline in tariff uncertainty.
- Reliable surveys of hiring intentions have remained weak; consumers report worsening job availability.
- A rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August is likely too, given the latest continuing claims data.
- Tier-one cities are leading another round of targeted residential property market easing in China.
- The goal is stabilisation, however, rather than returning to solid growth, so expect an L-shaped recovery.
- Industrial profits barely improved in July amid excess supply; manufacturing profits are rising though.
- GfK consumer confidence in Germany sank in September, but income expectations still look fine.
- All eyes on core inflation in France and Spain for signs of a downside surprise for the EZ print.
- Unemployment in Germany likely rose in August, but the IAB survey points to better times ahead.
- Cautious guidance and strain on long-dated gilts suggest the MPC will slow the pace of QT.
- We expect rate-setters to opt for a reduced pace of £70B-per-year for the next 12 months from October.
- Level of reserves in the system is high, but use of the short-term repo facility indicates demand for liquidity.
In one line: Grim, and little scope for near-term improvement.
- US - We think a September easing will be the first of many
- EUROZONE - Germany is balancing on the edge of recession and recovery
- UK - Week in review: August rate cut looks increasingly like a mistake
- CHINA+ - Japan’s inflation elevated, with no easy cure for rice-price headache
- EM ASIA - BI’s urgency to cut faster since July in context; expect at least one more
- LATAM - Our LATAM team is on leave this week, publication will resume on Sep 2nd
- Tariff revenues crept up by just $2B to $32B in August, but likely will reach $45B soon.
- Tariffs have risen this month; imports from high tariff nations will rebound; the de minimis exemption will end.
- We doubt the jump in underlying durable goods orders in July is a sign of things to come.
- Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
- Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
- Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.
- Our call for a September rate cut is hanging on by the skin of its teeth; can the August HICP save it?
- We doubt ECB doves will be able to push through easing in Q4 if the Bank stands pat next month.
- The game of chicken in French politics continues, with Mr. Bayrou’s government on the brink.
- The insolvency rate remains low and steady, indicating that corporate distress is contained.
- Leading indicators suggest that insolvencies will remain around current levels in the coming months.
- Solid GDP growth and falling borrowing costs will limit corporate distress in H2.
Bigger falls in sales likely lie ahead.
A September easing looks nailed on, with more likely to follow.
In one line: Still pointing to downside risks.
In one line: Germany fared worse than initially expected in Q2.
In one line: Japan's slowing headline inflation won't shift BoJ's worries about rising food inflation
Japan's slowing headline inflation won't shift BoJ's worries about rising food inflation
- In one line: Growth will match the MPC’s expectations in Q3.
