- Taiwan’s March retail sales rose by 0.4% year-over-year, though our seasonal adjustment erases this…
- …We see worrying signs in motor vehicle, textiles, and fuel sales, the three largest components.
- This all points to a weak Q1 private consumption print, ahead of next Wednesday’s GDP release.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Most near-real-time consumers’ spending indicators suggest it is holding up well in April.
- The trade war also hasn’t hit job postings, while Google searches for ‘unemployment’ are down.
- Leading indicators on production, meanwhile, reflect greater activity, boosted by tariff front-running.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A swathe of data on the labour market indicates that the job market is cooling, not cratering.
- But the balance of risks has shifted to a faster shake-out after President Trump’s tariffs.
- We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.1% in 2026 as the trade war dampens GDP growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Fastest fall in demand for services since Covid pulls down the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Fastest fall in demand for services since Covid pulls down the headline.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line:The public finances are weak heading into the trade war, difficult choices lay ahead for the Chancellor.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Brazil — Uncertainty and fiscal risks resurfacing
- Mexico — Reforms and trade noise persist
- Colombia — Reform gamble deepens risks
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bank Indonesia stayed on hold this month, but—rightly—downgraded its 2025 growth forecasts…
- …Consumption is still struggling to increase more meaningfully, and confidence is starting to wobble.
- India’s trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in March, but underlying import demand is flailing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Soft April PMIs signal downside risk to our Q2 GDP call, but we still think tariff front-running will help.
- Demand for services is retreating, confirming that trade uncertainty is weighing on domestic demand.
- Manufacturing is holding the fort for now, with new orders recovering thanks to tariff front-running.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the resulting uncertainty have led the UK PMI to tank to its lowest since late 2022.
- Rising price pressures and the PMI’s overreaction to uncertainty mean the MPC will retain some caution.
- But downside growth risks mean we expect back-to-back, precautionary, rate cuts in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: EZ consumers didn’t like Trump’s tariff announcements.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Erratic computer games and hotel prices drag inflation down, headline inflation will still likely jump to 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Enough softening for the MPC to cut, but strong wage growth will keep rate setters cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise in February but property price inflation will ease in Q2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales continue to grow strongly but slowing global growth clouds the outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ignore Indonesia’s larger-than-expected surplus in March; export growth will be weaker from Q2.
- Expect more downside this month after Indian inflation fell to a five-year-plus low in March…
- …Our food-price tracker indicates downside risks are still intensifying; our 2025 CPI call is now 3.0%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Few alarms yet in high-frequency data; business surveys weaker
- EUROZONE - A dovish, but also conditional, pivot from the ECB
- UK - Wages stay strong and inflation heading to 3.5% in April
- CHINA+ - China’s strategic pivot to ASEAN in the face of tariff pressures
- EM ASIA service is on holiday this week; returning next week
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial rebound masks structural weakness and policy risks
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Fear of a severe economic and market hit will dissuade President Trump from firing Chair Powell...
- ...But the president’s tariffs show he is willing to throw caution to the wind on economic policy.
- The S&P Global PMI likely will indicate higher goods inflation, but services inflation remaining in check.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Colombia’s economic rebound continues, thanks to falling inflation and resilient services…
- …But other sector performances remain uneven and fragile, and financial volatility poses a growing risk.
- The US–China trade war is a threat to key exports and investment; domestic policy options are narrowing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
