- The BSP eased policy further yesterday, by 25bp, cutting the TRR rate to 5.00%, as widely expected…
- …But its rhetoric was much less dovish; Governor Remolona now thinks the rate is in the “sweet spot”.
- We continue to see one more cut, but this is unlikely to come until December, after the Q3 GDP report.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The acceleration in money supply growth has faded, but it still signals solid underlying GDP growth.
- Surveyed EC selling price expectations rose in services but fell further in food.
- The Swiss economy came down to Earth in Q2 amid wild swings in net trade and inventories.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The yield curve has steepened sharply since our last gilt market update in April, driven by higher real rates.
- A reduction in the pace of QT from October has the potential to support the long end at the margin.
- Acute fiscal risks mean we raise our year-end target for yields across the curve.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
China's industrial profits still falling in July
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line:The Chancellor will still have to raise taxes in October despite borrowing matching official forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence to stay rangebound for the rest of the year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing activity looks subdued but stable, it should recover in H2.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
Jump in underlying orders looks unsustainable.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- GfK consumer confidence in Germany sank in September, but income expectations still look fine.
- All eyes on core inflation in France and Spain for signs of a downside surprise for the EZ print.
- Unemployment in Germany likely rose in August, but the IAB survey points to better times ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Cautious guidance and strain on long-dated gilts suggest the MPC will slow the pace of QT.
- We expect rate-setters to opt for a reduced pace of £70B-per-year for the next 12 months from October.
- Level of reserves in the system is high, but use of the short-term repo facility indicates demand for liquidity.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Grim, and little scope for near-term improvement.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - We think a September easing will be the first of many
- EUROZONE - Germany is balancing on the edge of recession and recovery
- UK - Week in review: August rate cut looks increasingly like a mistake
- CHINA+ - Japan’s inflation elevated, with no easy cure for rice-price headache
- EM ASIA - BI’s urgency to cut faster since July in context; expect at least one more
- LATAM - Our LATAM team is on leave this week, publication will resume on Sep 2nd
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
- Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
- Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our call for a September rate cut is hanging on by the skin of its teeth; can the August HICP save it?
- We doubt ECB doves will be able to push through easing in Q4 if the Bank stands pat next month.
- The game of chicken in French politics continues, with Mr. Bayrou’s government on the brink.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
