Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The BSP surprised yesterday with another 25bp cut to its policy rate, as it rejigged its growth views…
- …But the weakness in business confidence has been in play for a while; we now see two more cuts.
- Indonesian retail sales growth is starting to revive more noticeably, but headwinds are intensifying.
- German auto output rebounded in September, but will this be included in the first Q3 GDP estimate?
- Construction investment rose in Q3, but net trade and consumption likely remained sluggish.
- We now think the first Q3 GDP estimate in Germany will show that output fell by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- We expect the OBR to lower potential GDP growth by 0.1pp per year in the November Budget forecasts.
- Only a small downgrade is needed after payroll-based productivity growth far exceeded OBR forecasts.
- The fiscal watchdog should also avoid becoming unduly pessimistic about a hard-to-forecast variable.
- In one line: Expect this to be a temporary pause from the new Governor and Co.
- In one line: Expect this to be a temporary pause from the new Governor and Co.
In one line: Ugly, but stung by one-off distortions.
In one line: Japan's wage growth slows again, with bonuses hit by tourism weakness
- AI capex—net of tech imports—lifted H1 GDP growth by an annualized rate of around 0.3pp.
- The boost to spending due to the wealth effect from surging tech stocks likely has been similar.
- That suggests to us that weaker growth is more likely than a recession if the AI boom turns to bust.
- Brazil — Rally on easing inflation
- Mexico — From record peaks to profit-taking
- Chile — Market consolidates after regional volatility
- The BoT surprised the widespread consensus yesterday by holding the policy rate at 1.50%.
- The export U-turn is here, and the MPC sounds too nonchalant over domestic demand and inflation…
- …We reiterate our 1.00% terminal rate forecast, implying 25bp cuts in December and in Q1.
- Japan’s real household spending continued to rise in August, despite falling real incomes.
- Nominal wages took a hit, as bonuses plunged, notably in tourism-related sectors and manufacturing.
- The BoJ will be looking for clues about 2026 wage growth, but is also wary of recent JPY weakness.
- Italy’s deficit will shrink this year but still exceed the EU’s 3%-of-GDP limit and the government’s target.
- Its 2026 budget plans are mildly expansionary, including a cut to taxes for middle-income earners…
- ...while little consensus on offsetting revenue-raising measures exists among the coalition.
- We expect GDP to be unchanged in August, as an erratic fall in mining output drags on growth…
- …Services activity likely saved GDP from a fall, with rebounds in large sub-sectors boosting growth.
- We think that underlying economic activity remains firm, which will keep the MPC on hold this year.
Philippine sales still sliding, but a few green shoots are emerging
Soft… keeping the door wide open for at least one more BSP cut this quarter
- In one line: The PMI has been a poor construction indicator lately, official output will probably hold up.
- In one line: Strongest September car sales for three years bodes well for GDP.
- US - Most alternative indicators of payrolls are garbage
- EUROZONE - Swiss inflation is low and set to fall, but the SNB will ignore it
- UK - H1 growth well-balanced, if we smooth through front-running
- CHINA+ -Japan’s likely new prime minister could lead the BoJ to delay rate rise
- EM ASIA - Still a matter of when, not if, the RBI will cut again; we look for December
- LATAM - BanRep holds rates as inflation persists, fiscal weakness deepens
- The NY Fed survey suggests the mood among consumers was souring again even before the shutdown.
- The weak labor market and further upward pressure on inflation from tariffs are the most likely culprits.
- Alternative indicators of payrolls are even worse guides to the final estimates than the initial prints.
- The mild inflation uptick in Peru was driven by base effects, underlying price pressures remain in check.
- Economic momentum is holding steady, with construction, credit and labour markets resilient.
- Fiscal discipline and solid external accounts support PEN stability amid mounting political uncertainty.
