Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- China’s industrial profits rose in Q1 on lower costs and higher revenues from precautionary front-loading.
- Producer reflation supported the rise, but was more evident in metals and upstream energy sectors.
- Profit growth will face pressure from war-related costs, fading front-loading and weak domestic demand.
- Swiss headline inflation is likely to pick up further as the disinflationary impact of the strong CHF eases.
- Second-round effects from the energy shock on core prices now look increasingly likely.
- The Swiss economy looks set for a spell of stagflation, just like its Eurozone neighbours.
- Retail sales were boosted by fuel purchases in March, which will unwind as demand normalises...
- ...but we see tentative signs that households are willing to reduce their high saving rate to smooth spending…
- ...and the GfK’s major purchases balance held firm in April, suggesting that retail sales can grind higher.
In one line: In the footsteps of the PMI and IFO.
- In one line: Labour market holds up, but activity is weakening.
- In one line: Labour market holds up, but activity is weakening.
- In one line: A solid end to Q1 for two-way trade, but fundamental pressure on the THB is building.
- - CHINA'S Q1 GROWTH SPURT COULD BE HIGH-WATER MARK
- - BOJ WILL LIKELY HOLD POLICY RATE AT APRIL'S MEETING
- - KOREA'S CHIP EXPORT RISE OFFSETS OIL IMPORT BILL
Core services inflation unlikely to accelerate sharply.
- In one line: Disinflation is slow, and demand is beginning to weaken.
- Tax refunds have more than offset the hit from higher gas prices, so far, but this support will fade shortly.
- The BEA’s impartiality faces scrutiny this week when it chooses the PCE deflator input for legal services.
- Tariff costs are down and refund applications are now going in; retailers can hold back raising prices.
- IGAE data in Mexico confirm slowing growth, with industry weak and services losing support.
- Labour market remains tight, but employment growth slows as activity weakens and capex stays subdued.
- Banxico will ease gradually, as weaker growth builds slack but inflation keeps policy restrictive.
- THB strength is no longer a ‘good headache’ for policymakers, but its wobble is no mere correction…
- …We still see a current-account deficit this year, but now at -1%; export leading indicators are tanking.
- A painful war punch to Indian exports; we expect net trade to impose a bigger 1.8pp hit on Q1 GDP.
- President Trump’s mid-May Beijing visit faces risk of another delay amid persistent Middle East tensions.
- China’s relative insulation from the war has supported Beijing’s position in discussing trade terms with the US.
- Japan’s manufacturing is boosted by precautionary front-loading amid supply shocks, while services slow.
- There are downside risks to Q1 GDP growth, but Eurozone inflation rose further in April, to 3.0%.
- Core inflation likely fell a touch in April, due to weakness in services, but it will snap back in May.
- The ECB will stand pat this week, waiting for the June forecasts before its next move—a hike.
- Risks are skewed to a hawkish hold by the Bank of England as the DMP shows rising price pressures.
- A slew of surveys last week suggests inflation risks are more prominent than growth weakness.
- Bank Rate expectations are moving with oil prices rather than economic data.
In one line: Stagflation is back, with a vengeance.
In one line: Stagflation is back, with a vengeance.
In one line: Downside risks are widening.
In one line: Downside risks are widening.
