Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, January 2026

The underlying trend in core sales still is slowing.

PM Datanote: US Employment, February 2026

What stabilization?.

Global Datanote: Inflation, Chile, February, 2026

• In one line: Inflation surprised to the downside, but upside risks are emerging.

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, February, 2026

• In one line: Inflation surprised to the downside, reinforcing Chile’s disinflation trend.

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, January, 2026

• In one line: Output rebounded in January, but the broader industrial trend remains fragile.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, February

• In one line: Lunar New Year distortions.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 March 2026

Don’t stress about the February collapse in Vietnamese export growth
A disappointing Tet season for retail sales in Vietnam
Raising our 2026 average inflation forecast for Vietnam to 3.7%
Strong end-2025 momentum in Philippine sales carrying over to early-2025

9 March 2026 US Monitor Labor market is too weak for oil prices to trigger sustained inflation

• Only part of the drop in February payrolls was due to strikes and the birth-death model.
• The trend in first estimates of payrolls is only about 25K, implying falling employment after revisions.
• Drivers soon will be paying $4.00 per gallon for gas, squeezing real disposable income and hitting jobs.

9 March 2026 LatAm Monitor Brazil's tight job market and oil shock complicate BCB's easing path

• Brazil’s jobless rate remains at historic lows, indicating labour demand is still far above sustainable levels.
• Real wage growth above 5% keeps services inflation sticky and limits room for rapid easing.
• Rising oil prices from Middle East tensions add upside inflation risk, impeding the COPOM’s policy path.

9 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's disinflationary spell likely over, due to Middle East conflict

• Taiwanese CPI rose to 1.8% in February, but it’s just Lunar New Year noise; a bigger issue is at hand...
• … A likely increase in fuel prices will hit Q2 inflation, though we still expect no rate hike.
• Tet noise means that Vietnam’s ‘ weak’ February exports should be ignored; the hot CPI less so.

9 March 2026 China+ Monitor China sticks to its growth vision based on technology and industry

• China’s 15th Five-Year Plan confirms the emphasis on technology and manufacturing to power growth...
• ...We expect continued success on this front, but little progress in rebalancing to consumption and services.
• Services development is hampered by low education; 65-to-70% of workers lack a high-school diploma.

9 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor EZ domestic demand rose solidly in Q4, but risks loom in Q1

• Domestic demand ex-inventories rose strongly in the EZ in Q4, despite the hit from a revision in Ireland.
• A jump in energy inflation is a risk to consumer confidence and spending in Q1.
• The EZ investment cycle is looking in better shape, despite downside risks to construction in Q1.

9 March 2026 UK Monitor Week in review: energy shock to take inflation back above 3.0%

• The MPC’s hopes of hitting the inflation target will have to wait another year if commodity prices are sustained.
• So, we expect the MPC to wait until April to ease, and see only one rate cut this year.
• A quick end to the war would bring forward cuts, but a protracted conflict would mean no reductions this year.

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, February 2025

• In one line:Sales growth jumps, hiring plans improve, and wage growth remains stubbornly strong.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Taiwan, January 2026

• In one line: Spending on big items is failing to recover.  

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Thailand, February 2026

• In one line: Diesel fix still more than safe; shading our 2026 forecast.