Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: A less-dovish cut, but expect at least one more before the end of 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A less-dovish cut, but expect at least one more before the end of 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: BoK stays put amid US pressure not to weaken currency
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
In one line: BoK stays put amid US pressure not to weaken currency
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THE ‘STRONG’ Q2 GDP
- …TAIWAN’S EXPORT OUTPERFORMANCE HAS STAYING POWER
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
EZ ECONOMY SLOWS AS TARIFF HIKES START TO BITE…
- …BUT OUR CALL FOR A SEPTEMBER RATE CUT IS NOW ON LIFE SUPPORT
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- QCEW data up to Q4 2024 imply payrolls have been overestimated substantially; Q1 data will be weak too...
- ...But QCEW data are revised too; the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision is usually too downbeat.
- The birth-death model has been too generous again; unauthorized workers also will be removed from the data.
Samuel TombsUS
- The BSP eased policy further yesterday, by 25bp, cutting the TRR rate to 5.00%, as widely expected…
- …But its rhetoric was much less dovish; Governor Remolona now thinks the rate is in the “sweet spot”.
- We continue to see one more cut, but this is unlikely to come until December, after the Q3 GDP report.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, citing household-debt worries.
- The Bank is probably also seeking to avoid upsetting the US with a rate cut which could weaken the KRW.
- A likely government housing-supply plan and Fed rate cut in September should allow a BoK rate cut in Q4.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The acceleration in money supply growth has faded, but it still signals solid underlying GDP growth.
- Surveyed EC selling price expectations rose in services but fell further in food.
- The Swiss economy came down to Earth in Q2 amid wild swings in net trade and inventories.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The yield curve has steepened sharply since our last gilt market update in April, driven by higher real rates.
- A reduction in the pace of QT from October has the potential to support the long end at the margin.
- Acute fiscal risks mean we raise our year-end target for yields across the curve.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
China's industrial profits still falling in July
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line:The Chancellor will still have to raise taxes in October despite borrowing matching official forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence to stay rangebound for the rest of the year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing activity looks subdued but stable, it should recover in H2.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
Jump in underlying orders looks unsustainable.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a mere 75K rise in payrolls, despite the rebound in stock prices and decline in tariff uncertainty.
- Reliable surveys of hiring intentions have remained weak; consumers report worsening job availability.
- A rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August is likely too, given the latest continuing claims data.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tier-one cities are leading another round of targeted residential property market easing in China.
- The goal is stabilisation, however, rather than returning to solid growth, so expect an L-shaped recovery.
- Industrial profits barely improved in July amid excess supply; manufacturing profits are rising though.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
