Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: China’s LPR steady in April amid NIM pressure
EARLY Q1 GDP NUMBERS SHOW A GENERAL COOLING
- …BSP AND MAS TIGHTEN IN VIEW OF CPI RISKS
Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.
- In one line: The oil shock is now feeding through more forcefully into headline inflation.
- In one line: Decent, but positive momentum is fading.
- In one line: Decent, but positive momentum is fading.
- Most Committee members stuck to language implying an easing bias, rather than placate the hawks.
- Powell’s decision to stay on means the President must use Miran’s seat to place Warsh on the FOMC.
- We look for Q1 GDP growth of 1.8%, with consumption mediocre and investment lifted by the AI boom.
- We now see a relatively small rise in Eurozone HICP inflation in April, by 0.1pp, to 2.7%.
- Energy inflation climbed further in the EZ, but the core fell due to a temporary slide in services inflation.
- EC selling price expectations rose across the board in April, and recession probability remained low.
- Household inflation expectations eased—although were still high—in April, according to YouGov.
- But we think the MPC can take limited comfort, because expectations still look de-anchored.
- Consumers are more attentive to inflation now than before 2022, raising risks of second-round effects.
- In one line: BoJ on hold, but Governor Ueda's lack of clear policy signalling leaves JPY exposed
In one line: BoJ on hold, but Governor Ueda's lack of clear policy signalling leaves JPY exposed
- US - FOMC to signal little urgency to shift policy, but will keep easing bias
- EUROZONE - Week in preview: Inflation up, growth stable, the ECB on hold
- UK - Week in review: inflation pressure rockets while growth holds up
- CHINA+ - War tilts leverage towards China ahead of Xi-Trump summit in May
- EM ASIA - THB needed a correction, but its fundamentals are weakening
- LATAM - Mexican growth weakens as labour softens; policy easing to be gradual
- Regular gasoline prices hit a 2026 high earlier this week, despite the modest dip in oil prices.
- Spending on fuel and discretionary services is solid for now, but demand usually wilts after a few months.
- The labor market components of the Conference Board survey suggest hiring remains very weak.
- Brazil’s inflation story is shifting; external shocks are driving a renewed increase in prices.
- The key challenge now is to stop a temporary shock becoming persistent; the COPOM will be cautious.
- Exports are surging in Mexico on non-manufacturing strength, but weak capex limits broader gains.
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady at 0.75% yesterday, amid uncertainty in the Middle East.
- Governor Ueda’s mixed message on policy direction could invite speculation on USDJPY.
- We think a June rate hike is still on the table, as long as prospects for a lasting ceasefire have improved by then.
- ECB consumer inflation expectations jumped in March, to 3%, on a three-year basis.
- The ECB’s bank lending survey points to tightening credit standards and weakening loan demand.
- Markets are still pricing the path for the ECB, based on inflation, inflation expectations and the oil price.
- The latest public finances data show cumulative borrowing for 2025/26 close to the OBR’s forecasts.
- But that respite will be short-lived, as the war in Iran increases borrowing in 2026/27 by about £19B.
- The Chancellor’s headroom is less affected, as long as gilt yields and inflation fall back in future years.
- The FOMC statement is unlikely to cite “two-sided” policy risk, despite better labor market data…
- …GDP growth is slow, upside inflation risks have eased, and inflation expectations remain unalarming.
- GDPNow’s Q1 estimate understates the rebound in federal spending, but the underlying picture is weak.
- Activity is weakening in Argentina, with domestic sectors lagging behind primary sectors.
- Growth is becoming less labour-intensive; external sectors are solid while domestic demand is subdued.
- The export-led recovery looks sustainable, but weak consumption and capex mean uneven growth in Q2.
- China’s industrial profits rose in Q1 on lower costs and higher revenues from precautionary front-loading.
- Producer reflation supported the rise, but was more evident in metals and upstream energy sectors.
- Profit growth will face pressure from war-related costs, fading front-loading and weak domestic demand.
