Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Korea’s 20-day exports surge in February on semiconductors, despite fewer working days, as DRAM prices soar in Q1
- The core CPI likely rose by 0.2% in February, despite the rebound in used auto prices.
- Nearly all the tariff costs have already come through; snowstorms likely weighed on clothing prices.
- The jump in oil prices to $85pb implies headline CPI inflation will shoot above 3% soon.
In one line: Japan exports spike on Lunar New Year boost, strong momentum unlikely to last.
- Higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions risk reversing recent disinflation progress across LatAm.
- Banxico likely will pause easing as core inflation remains sticky and external risks intensify.
- Chile’s inflation has cooled below target, but rising oil prices and a weaker CLP now threaten the outlook.
- The spike and projected stickiness in oil prices due to the Middle East unrest is now material for Asia…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecasts for India and Indonesia to 4.0% and 2.9%, respectively.
- Taiwan’s exports moderated in February amid Lunar New Year noise, but now face serious energy risk.
- China’s consumer inflation in January-February, at 0.8%, was in line with the previous two months.
- Low inflation and sluggish domestic demand leave ample room to absorb an energy-price surge.
- Producer inflation continued to improve in February, thanks to oil and non-ferrous metals prices.
- The ECB will hold fire next week, but the risk of a hawkish shift in communication is now elevated.
- EZ inflation is on track to settle well above the ECB’s target, based on current oil and gas price futures.
- A modest 50bp tightening in Q2, taking interest rates to the higher end of neutral, is now a key risk.
In one line: Japan’s softer than expected GDP outturn reinforces our case for a later than market rate hike.
- We expect inflation to trough at 2.6% in June and peak at 3.4% in December, given energy futures yesterday.
- We expect the flash payroll estimate to show a 5K month-to-month fall in February.
- Private-sector wage growth should tick up in January, and surveys suggest stabilisation ahead.
HOUSE PRICE INFLATION DIPS IN DECEMBER...
- ...BUT ACTIVITY IS ALREADY PICKING UP IN Q1
In one line: China’s Q4 current account surplus surges on strong goods exports
China's PPI reflation remains patchy; CPI falls back on Lunar New Year timing
In one line: China’s PPI deflation eases further in January, but improvements were patchy.
In one line: China’s FX reserves jumped in January on factors beyond valuation effects.
In one line: China’s FX reserves rose further in February amid RMB strength, partly driven by exporters repatriating overseas USD proceeds.
In one line: Recovery in sentiment derailed by war in Iran.
- In one line: China’s producer prices continued improvement, ahead of the oil price surge
In one line: Consumer inflation gets holiday bump; Producer inflation continued to improve, ahead of oil price surge
- In one line: Wet weather weighs on the Construction PMI in February, and sentiment will continue to remain weak in 2026.
- In one line: Car registrations will continue to rise over the course of 2026.
