Pantheon Publications

China+ Datanote: China's action plan for equipment upgrading & consumer goods

China's action plan for equipment upgrading & consumer goods trade-ins to prop up demand

Duncan WrigleyChina+

14 March 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ likely to hold off normalising rates until April

• BoJ Governor Ueda gave mixed signals at his legislature appearance on Tuesday.
• Japan’s January household spending data were broadly weak, but the incoming wage data are key...
• ...The BoJ is likely to keep rates on hold next week, waiting for more data, leaving the rate hike until April.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

11 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's ramps up fiscal support, notably for industrial development

• The Two Sessions confirm China will mainly rely on fiscal policy to support growth this year.
• We estimate the impact of additional fiscal support at 1.5% of GDP, partly offsetting the property drag.
• Regions are rolling out “ future industry” plans, anticipating the next generation of high-tech sectors.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

6 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's PMIs suggest weak labour market undermines domestic demand

• The February services PMIs were both respectable, albeit still below long-term averages...
• ...But weak employment indices highlight the fragility of domestic demand.
• Premier Li yesterday indicated a steady course, with no big stimulus, and outlined targeted measures.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, China, February

In one line: China’s manufacturing sector treads water during Lunar New Year 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 March 2024

China’s manufacturing sector treads water during Lunar New Year 

Holiday spending buoys China’s services activity 

Japanese manufacturing still struggling 

Ignore the headline export slowdown; Korean working-day adjusted export growth is vigorous

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's Lunar New Year holiday spending splurge won't last

• Holiday spending drove a modest uptick in the February services PMI, but this is set to fade again.
• The manufacturing PMIs moved sideways over February, waiting for a stimulus lift.
• Premier Li is likely to announce only targeted support for consumption and investment at tomorrow ’s NPC.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 March 2024 China+ Monitor Premier Li likely to announce only targeted support for consumption

• Premier Li is likely to announce targeted support for auto and home appliance consumption at the NPC...
• ...But this should be incremental demand support, rather than a big stimulus.
• China’s recovery will probably remain lacklustre but gradually gain traction in 2024.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 February 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's CPI falls less than expected due largely to data anomalies

• Japan’s national prices rise at the slowest rate since Q1 2021, thanks to softer food and energy prices.
• The surge in overseas package-holiday inflation has distorted the outturn away from the consensus.
• BoJ will be more confident to normalise rates but, given Fed’s delayed move, policy will tighten by June.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

26 February 2024 China+ Monitor BoK edging towards a rate cut; Q3 still most likely timing

• The BoK kept the policy rate unchanged yet again, but one board member is now open to a rate cut...
• ...But the Bank will probably hold off until Q3, worried about rising household debt and inflation.
• The modest improvement in China’s January residential prices likely doesn’t mark a turning point.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: BoK Policy Decision, Korea, February

• The BoK stays put, but changing voting pattern hints at future policy shift

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Flash manufacturing PMI, Japan, February

• Japanese manufacturing activity hit by fading demand and supply

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 February 2024: BoK on hold; Japanese flash PMIs

BoK on hold, but hinting at future easing; Japan's flash PMIs indicate continued sluggishness

Duncan WrigleyChina+

23 February 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's flash PMIs point to sagging economic activity

• The two Japanese flash PMIs point to a flagging recovery, despite long-term optimism.
• A drop in service sector new export orders is a warning sign for the tourism sector.
• January national CPI, due Monday, will likely be sub- 2%, adding to the case for the BoJ to delay a rate rise.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: PBoC Policy Decision, China, February

Surprise 25bp cut to five-year LPR unlikely enough to ensure rapid property market rebound; one-year LPR on hold

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 February 2024: surprise 25bp five-year LPR cut

Surprise 25bp cut to five-year LPR unlikely enough to ensure rapid property market rebound; one-year LPR on hold

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 February 2024 China+ Monitor China's big five-year LPR cut signals focus on boosting home demand

• The PBoC announced no change to the one-year LPR yesterday, in line with market expectations...
• ...But the surprisingly large 25bp cut to the five-year LPR is a clear signal of property-market support.
• China is finally taking bigger steps to boost the ailing property market, but more will likely be needed.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

19 February 2024 China+ Monitor PBoC sticking to targeted easing; don't expect big rate cuts

• The PBoC left the MLF rate on hold yesterday but is likely to cut it in Q2, as part of targeted support .
• Fiscal stimulus funds are likely to boost business cash flow in selected parts of the economy in H1.
• Urban real estate financing mechanisms promise to bring real money for project completions.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

13 February 2024 China+ Monitor Chinese credit demand still sluggish, but M1 bounce is cause for cheer

• China’s social financing growth slowed a notch in January, due to less government-bond issuance.
• The jump in January net long-term new household loans is probably a blip; new-home sales are weak.
• The increase in M1 growth is a likely sign of stimulus funds improving business cash flow.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, January

M1 and credit growth beat expectations, thanks to stimulus

Duncan WrigleyChina+