Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Duncan Wrigley
- China’s Ministry of Finance yesterday announced ultra-long special-bond issuance will start on Friday.
- April’s credit data hit a wall, due to government-bond and bankers’ acceptances repayments .
- Rising government-bond issuance should lift bond yields and credit growth from May onwards.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China export growth bounced in April, thanks partly to receding high base from last year.
- Adjusted for seasonal factors, monthly exports actually steepened its fall, pointing to still fragile recovery.
- While exports share to US decreased over the years, those to Vietnam and Mexico are on the rise
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- April’s RMB343B PSL net repayment is probably related to the PBoC’s desire to cushion bond yields.
- The April Caixin services activity PMI barely slowed, a rosier picture than the drop in the official index.
- The Caixin index is tracking the service-sector output data better than the official index.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s April manufacturing PMI points to improving output and demand trends year-to-date.
- But burgeoning cost pressures are making firms cautious on hiring and inventory purchasing.
- The BoK is likely to worry about these cost pressures disrupting the slowing trend in consumer inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both China’s April PMIs agree that manufacturing output is going from strength to strength...
- ...But the official gauge shows demand fading slightly, while the Caixin indicates further robustness.
- It was announced at yesterday’s Politburo meeting the reform-oriented Third Plenum will be held in July.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s structural problems, notably in the property sector, are limiting the efficacy of interest rate cuts.
- But varied public views on the management of bond yields hint at a broader internal policy debate.
- Labour-market issues are compounded by credit constraints for private firms, especially SMEs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged, as Japan hasn’t attained sustainable inflation yet.
- Broad wage growth is likely to lag strong pay rises at large employers, while consumption looks soft.
- But building pressure on JPY will probably force the Bank to strike a more hawkish tone on future rates.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q1 GDP growth picked up, thanks to robust industrial output and consumer services spending.
- But a marked fall in industrial capacity utilisation points to burgeoning oversupply issues...
- …Fiscal stimulus should boost demand to mitigate the oversupply, eventually; meanwhile, PPI deflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged yesterday, likely wary of currency pressure.
- Social financing growth slowed in March, due to soft domestic demand and lower bond issuance.
- Government-bond issuance is likely to pick up in Q2, the key plank of short-term growth support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s GDP growth should increase slightly in Q1 quarter-to-quarter, but severe imbalances persist.
- A robust industrial sector contrasts with plunging new-property sales and flat consumption activity.
- Policy support for consumer goods trade-ins and equipment upgrades should be incrementally helpful.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s March official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were both above 50 for the first time since September.
- A strong industrial sector is generating demand for business services too.
- But the lacklustre labour market and dismal property sector will limit the speed of China’s recovery.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s foreign direct investment seems to have passed its lowest point, hit in late 2023.
- Top policymakers are rolling out the red carpet to tempt foreign CEOs back to China, as it recovers.
- But geopolitical tensions will limit the foreign investment rebound, especially in high-tech sectors.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s March flash manufacturing PMI points to still-tepid activity, though improving modestly.
- The service sector continues to shine brightly, albeit based narrowly on tourism and finance.
- A jump in service-sector input costs is a worrying sign of persistently elevated inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s lopsided recovery continued in January and February, led by a galloping industrial sector...
- ...Demand is likely mainly coming from exports and fixed asset investment, with consumption still tepid.
- Further price cuts should drive car sales, while new-property developer woes continue.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- BoJ Governor Ueda gave mixed signals at his legislature appearance on Tuesday.
- Japan’s January household spending data were broadly weak, but the incoming wage data are key...
- ...The BoJ is likely to keep rates on hold next week, waiting for more data, leaving the rate hike until April.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The February services PMIs were both respectable, albeit still below long-term averages...
- ...But weak employment indices highlight the fragility of domestic demand.
- Premier Li yesterday indicated a steady course, with no big stimulus, and outlined targeted measures.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Premier Li is likely to announce targeted support for auto and home appliance consumption at the NPC...
- ...But this should be incremental demand support, rather than a big stimulus.
- China’s recovery will probably remain lacklustre but gradually gain traction in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s national prices rise at the slowest rate since Q1 2021, thanks to softer food and energy prices.
- The surge in overseas package-holiday inflation has distorted the outturn away from the consensus.
- BoJ will be more confident to normalise rates but, given Fed’s delayed move, policy will tighten by June.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The two Japanese flash PMIs point to a flagging recovery, despite long-term optimism.
- A drop in service sector new export orders is a warning sign for the tourism sector.
- January national CPI, due Monday, will likely be sub- 2%, adding to the case for the BoJ to delay a rate rise.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC announced no change to the one-year LPR yesterday, in line with market expectations...
- ...But the surprisingly large 25bp cut to the five-year LPR is a clear signal of property-market support.
- China is finally taking bigger steps to boost the ailing property market, but more will likely be needed.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
