Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Year-over-year growth in the ECI likely fell below 4% in Q1, almost back to its inflation target-consistent rate.
- California fast food price rises driven by the minimum wage hike will have a microscopic impact on the CPI.
- Ignore the 3.9% Q2 growth forecast from GDPNow; its estimates are often way off this early in the quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Thailand’s customs trade balance missed widely in March; the adjusted gap sank to a 19-month low…
- …Export leading indicators remain lacklustre, while import growth is getting a lift from global oil prices.
- Vietnam’s trade surplus collapsed in April; it looks like export growth truly has peaked, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Early April HICP data in Spain and Germany confirm that energy inflation rose, while core inflation dipped.
- We’re lowering our EZ headline inflation forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.4%; the core likely fell by 0.4pp, to 2.5%.
- The Irish economy sprang back to life in Q1; we still look for EZ GDP to have risen by 0.3% in the quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth to average 0.3% this year, driven by consumer spending.
- Energy price cuts will pull inflation below 2% in May; strong services will push inflation to 2.3% in Q4.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate three times this year, starting in June, but the risk is it eases only twice.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The Q1 data suggest upside risk to our 0.28% March core PCE forecast, but 0.3% rounded still looks likely.
- Q1 GDP growth was better beneath the hood; the headline was hit by a big foreign trade drag...
- ...But expect drags in Q2 from inventories and residential investment, as well as slowing consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Banxico will likely keep rates on hold after the upside surprise in headline inflation in early April.
- Disinflation is likely to resume in late Q2, allowing policymakers to resume cuts, the Fed permitting.
- Economic activity in Argentina continued to falter in Q1, but the EMAE report reveals positive signs.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- China’s structural problems, notably in the property sector, are limiting the efficacy of interest rate cuts.
- But varied public views on the management of bond yields hint at a broader internal policy debate.
- Labour-market issues are compounded by credit constraints for private firms, especially SMEs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- A pick-up in services production boosted French growth in Q1; Q2 is set for further improvement, just.
- Forecast upgrades in Germany and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1.
- Political uncertainty is increasing in Spain, as the Prime Minister mulls resignation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Month-to-month falls in the Nationwide and Halifax house-price indices in March were a blip.
- Mortgage interest rates will resume their gentle decline in May, and estate agents remain upbeat.
- We expect house prices to rise 4% year-over-year in Q4 2024 and the same again in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Durable orders were stronger than we expected in March, but they still fell in Q1 as a whole.
- GDP likely rose by 2.6% in Q1; this week's data have triggered only marginal changes in our forecast.
- Time lags and generous seasonals mean today's initial claims data likely will be little changed, again.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- BI surprised yesterday with a 25bp hike, yet again citing a need to stabilise the IDR; this is just overkill.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth in March barely stayed in the black; price effects saved the day…
- …Real wage growth continues to tread water around zero percent, making a Q2 turnaround unlikely.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoJ is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged, as Japan hasn’t attained sustainable inflation yet.
- Broad wage growth is likely to lag strong pay rises at large employers, while consumption looks soft.
- But building pressure on JPY will probably force the Bank to strike a more hawkish tone on future rates.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We’re lifting our forecast for German Q1 GDP growth, by 0.2pp to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- German manufacturing and services output are on the mend, while retail sales are still stuck in the mud.
- Construction was boosted by mild weather in Q1; output will fall sharply in the second quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The first estimate of 23/24 borrowing topped the OBR’s forecast by £7B, but revisions may improve the picture.
- The OBR will likely revise up its forecast for debt interest payments and nudge it down for the tax-to-GDP ratio...
- ...But the Chancellor can pencil in even more implau- sible forecasts for spending in order to cut taxes now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- S&P's employment index has inaccurately pointed to sharp slowdowns in growth in payrolls before...
- ...but its grim message should be taken seriously now, given that it is echoed by the NFIB survey.
- Easter effects point to a downside surprise in durable goods orders ex-transportation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- LatAm central banks are taking a cautious approach to monetary policy due to a still-hawkish Fed.
- Mexico’s economic activity rebounded solidly in February, helping to avert a sharper downturn in Q1.
- Increased fiscal support is boosting growth, but rising real rates pose challenges in H2.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The strong 2024 run in India’s PMIs continued in April, but they still point to sub-8% GDP growth…
- …Hiring appears to have regained momentum recently, but the hard EPFO data remain sluggish.
- Continued headline disinflation in Singapore will be tough, as the low-hanging fruit has been picked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The rise in the EZ composite PMI suggests we should expect a pick up in GDP growth in Q2.
- Higher selling price expectations won’t prevent an ECB cut in June; they still point to lower inflation.
- The SNB’s tweak to minimum reserve requirements is not as big a deal as markets think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI is consistent with 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q2, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- The PAYE employment drop in March looks like noise, as the PMI records strengthening jobs growth.
- Price pressures remain elevated, with the minimum-wage hike boosting input price inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- S&P's PMI is too unreliable a guide to GDP to be useful, but its soft inflation signal should be taken seriously.
- Annual retail sales revisions could have significant implications for consumption growth in Q1.
- New home sales probably rose in March, capping a strong quarter for residential investment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
