Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Duncan Wrigley
- The PBoC announced no change to the one-year LPR yesterday, in line with market expectations...
- ...But the surprisingly large 25bp cut to the five-year LPR is a clear signal of property-market support.
- China is finally taking bigger steps to boost the ailing property market, but more will likely be needed.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s social financing growth slowed a notch in January, due to less government-bond issuance.
- The jump in January net long-term new household loans is probably a blip; new-home sales are weak.
- The increase in M1 growth is a likely sign of stimulus funds improving business cash flow.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japanese nominal wage growth rose slightly in December but remains well below earlier highs..
- The continued decline in real wages, albeit easing, is dragging down real household spending.
- Disappointing tourism wages raise questions about the hoped-for transition to demand-push inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s January Caixin manufacturing PMI is still outperforming the official index.
- Rising investment goods output probably anticipates stimulus effects after the Lunar New Year holiday.
- The Caixin services PMI should see a holiday bump, despite consumer caution over costly purchases.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s January official manufacturing PMI points to an encouraging restocking cycle...
- ...Rising output and inventory readings suggest firms expect stimulus to boost domestic demand.
- Targeted funds for property support are arriving, but the recovery will still be protracted.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC yesterday announced an RRR cut; we see this as mainly to facilitate government-bond issuance.
- Governor Pan said RRR adjustments would drive down the LPR; a Q1 cut still seems likely.
- The big picture: China is relying on fiscal support to prop up growth, 2024 is likely to see token rate cuts.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ maintained its easy policy settings yesterday, while raising hopes for a change...
- ...Governor Ueda sees more chance of attaining the price target, given events in the spring wage talks.
- Q2 seems the most likely timing for negative rates to end, even if unwarranted by fundamentals.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean 20-day exports fell in January, defying our expectation for a continued rise.
- But this is likely a blip; exports to the US slowed sharply, despite still-strong consumption there.
- A surge in AI-related chip demand is likely to drive a gradual recovery in Korean exports this year.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s developer financing fell further in December, despite a new round of regulatory support.
- Residential property-price declines also worsened, as investors offloaded excess properties.
- More homebuyer support will likely be needed to drive a property-sector recovery.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s real GDP growth slowed in Q4, hit by property-sector woes and soft consumption.
- Targeted stimulus is giving a modest lift to manufacturing and fixed asset investment.
- Industrial output is holding up relatively well, with carmakers bullish about prospects for this year.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged yesterday, as policymakers assess the impact of recent easing.
- Headline consumer inflation improved slightly in December, but core inflation remains sluggish.
- Excess capacity is likely to weigh on manufactured goods prices in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, while hinting at future easing in its statement...
- ...But Governor Rhee played down the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, worried about household debt.
- The BoK is likely to start easing in Q3; but a sharp KRW appreciation could bring forward that shift.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo consumer headline inflation continued to fall in December, as food inflation cooled.
- Core inflation is slowing, as high import costs pass through the system gradually.
- The BoJ will probably still exit its negative rate policy in Q2, despite slowing inflation and mediocre growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s foreign reserves posted a second straight strong rise in December, as U.S. yields fell.
- Both valuation effects and improved capital inflows drove the marked increase in reserves.
- China’s pro-growth policy tilt is seen in the firing of an official, after new gaming rules hit stock prices.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Caixin PMI indicated rising service activity in December, in contrast to the depressed official PMI...
- ...But the Caixin PMI has been a better leading indicator of services production recently.
- Consumer services demand is likely to continue to outperform soft consumer goods demand in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ announced no change to its easy policy settings yesterday.
- Falling U.S. yields have eased pressure on the yen, lessening the urgency of a BoJ policy shift.
- The December flash PMIs indicate falling manufacturing demand, but resilient services activity.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s November financing data indicate weak credit demand outside government-bond issuance.
- Home demand is stronger than the headlines suggest, but the supply overhang is bigger too.
- The PBoC is likely to talk up inflationary expectations and provide more assertive liquidity support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The December Central Economic Work Conference confirmed China’s priority is restructuring.
- China should turn to fiscal policy to expand domestic demand, but don’t expect mega-stimulus.
- Regulators are likely to support a broader group of property developers, but no quick fix.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The December Politburo meeting statement struck a more confident tone on China’s economy.
- Headline core inflation sank in November, due to food and energy prices, but core inflation was steady.
- November’s producer prices fell m/m for the first time in four months, indicative of excess supply.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- November trade data show Chine se exports have flattened out in recent months.
- Key commodity import volumes continue to grow, except crude oil, which abruptly fell in November.
- Foreign reserves rose sharply in November, thanks to valuation effects and a larger trade surplus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
