Pantheon Publications

12 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian consumption remains static, but could it fall?

• Malaysian retail sales remain static, in terms of seasonally adjusted volumes…
• …We think consumption will continue to support growth, but consumer confidence seems gloomy
• We see warning signs the recovery in Indonesian consumption risks being nipped in the bud.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 February 2026

Indonesian retail sales took a—likely temporary—breather at the end of 2025
Price effects flatter Malaysian retail sales growth in December

11 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai election: political event risk averted, but no cure for economy

• Thailand’s Bhumjaithai party surprised with a clear win, smoothing A nutin’s path to becoming PM…
• …The People’s Party’s loss implies a bigger chance of internal stability and less risk of populist policy.
• We see no reason to change our growth outlook though, as structural headwinds will still dominate.

10 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's export growth reaches the highest print since the 1970s

• Taiwan’s exports soared by 69.9% in January, with AI demand still overwhelming supply…
• ...though base effects, Lunar New Year distortion and less front-loading point to cooling ahead.
• AI demand could soften near term, due to lack of data centre readiness and delayed deployment.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, Taiwan, January 2026

• In one line: Export growth surge never seems to stop.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 February 2026

The RBI’s likely long pause is here
Don’t buy Vietnam’s Tet-distorted January trade headlines
A more than decent start to 2026 for retail sales in Vietnam
Huge healthcare hike in January last year drops out of Vietnamese inflation
Nascent signs of a recovery in Philippine sales

9 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor This RBI pause will stick; prepare for a quiet year, barring any shocks

• The RBI pressed pause this month, and we believe it will be at least a year before we see any rate action.
• The 2025 Tet holiday flattered Vietnam’s trade data; exports continue to cool, but a soft landing is likely.
• Philippine sale s data indicate that the economy turned a corner in the middle of the abysmal Q4.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, January 2026

• In one line: Big disinflation surprise, due to Lunar New Year noise.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 February 2026

Indonesia’s dream of 6% for 2026 could become reality
Thai deflation now looks set to stick around until mid-year
Philippine inflation is back in the BSP’s range; still expecting a February cut

6 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia's 'hot' Q4 GDP print welcome in more ways than one

• Indonesian Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.4%, and is likely closer to 7.0% in reality…
• …Consumption is the real hero, not investment; we’ve upgraded our 2026 growth forecast to 5.1%.
• The leap in inflation in January was quite deceptive; calm food prices force us to cut our 2026 call.

4 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor India's low-key budget a sign of the times, and generally welcome

• India’s 2026/27 budget is the least restrictive we’ve seen in years, seeing a trivial deficit consolidation…
• …to 4.3% of GDP; an achievable target in our view, given the natural capex ceiling and realistic tax goal.
• The start of a new anchor—debt-to-GDP—will mean faster consolidation from 2027/28 though.

3 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan Q4 GDP hits a 21st-century high; our call was spot on

• Taiwan’s Q4 GDP growth surged to a blockbuster 12.7%, above the unjustifiable 8.8% consensus...
• …Exports did the heavy lifting, though even we were taken aback by the rebound in consumption.
• The MAS held policy steady; we see little need for tightening with imported inflation still non-existent.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 February 2026

Sturdy manufacturing momentum in ASEAN is holding up
Two-way trade in Indonesia ends 2025 on a solid note
A deceptively soft January headline CPI print in Indonesia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, November 2025

• In one line: Returning to earth, again; other, more credible data show a decent Q4.

2 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Ins-and-outs of Indonesia's equity market collapse; a good entry point?

• Indonesia’s soaring equities sold off sharply last week, threatened with a downgrade to ‘frontier’…
• …Fundamentally, the correction seems harsh, from the standpoint of improving ‘real’ economic activity.
• Thailand’s election at the end of this week still looks set to result in a fragile coalition government.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29 January 2026

Anti-graft drive drags Philippine growth down to weakest in nearly 15 years

EM Asia Datanote: IP, India, December 2025

• In one line: An unexpected—if narrow—jump to a 26-month high.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 27 January 2026

Sagging Philippine imports—masked by base effects—is the real story

30 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Even 5% GDP growth this year now looks unlikely for the Philippines

• The Philippines’ Q4 GDP was grim, with growth plummeting to just 3.0%, from 3.9% in Q3…
• …We’ve yet to see signs of a bottom in investment-related indicators, while consumption remains soft.
• We’ve cut our already-below-consensus GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.8%, from 5.0%.

January 2026 Emerging Asia Chartbook

EM ASIA EXPORTERS END 2025 WITH A GDP BANG

• …WE RAISE OUR 2026 INDIA CPI FORECAST TO OVER 4%