Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 April 2026

Iran war hits most ASEAN factories hard; price shock immediate and big
Indonesia’s trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days
A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, January 2026

• In one line: Underlying spending growth was still in recovery mode pre-Iran war.

1 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Confirmation the GST pop in Indian IP is over; fuel-tax cut no relief

• India’s Feb. IP validates our above-consensus call, but the post-GST pop in consumer goods is done…
• …Output looks poised to hit a wall in March; last week’s fuel-tax cuts buy consumers time, not relief.
• Thai consumption was having a decent Q1 pre-war, amid an easing in structural high-debt headwinds.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, February 2026

• In one line: Likely as good as we’ll get in H1, if not 2026 at large.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 27 March 2026

Two-way trade in the Philippines was picking up steam before the war

30 March 2026 Emerging Asia INR's 'record' fall in context; more a threat to Q2 growth than inflation

• The INR fell below the symbolic 94 level versus USD last week; the threat is to growth, not so much CPI.
• The BSP held at its off-cycle meeting last Thursday, while likely inadvertently setting a high bar for hikes.
• The global energy shock is hitting inflation harder in Thailand; we’ve raised our 2026 forecast to 0.9%.

March 2026 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

CPI FORECASTS UP ACROSS THE BOARD IN EM ASIA

• …BUT FROM LOW STARTING POINTS; ONLY SBV SET TO HIKE

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Taiwan, February

• In one line: Q1 consumption remains firm.

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, February 2026

• In one line: Fundamental downward pressure on the THB is building rapidly.

26 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Oil surge will pull Thailand's current account into modest deficit in 2026

• Thailand’s customs trade deficit in February was a big miss, but this has been deteriorating for a while.
• The oil-price spike will likely see a current account deficit of -1.5% this year, after +3.1% in 2025.
• The BoT won’t mind if the THB falls further though, as it rightly has been more worried about strength.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 March 2026

Iran war, unsurprisingly, hits India's PMIs immediately

25 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor War hitting Indian industry hard and fast; PMIs point to 6% GDP for Q1

• India’s PMIs have been softening for a while, but the Iran-war hit is notable, especially in manufacturing…
• …The complete PMIs for Q1 back our downbeat call for GDP of 6.1%; the long-term outlook is unfazed.
• Taiwanese retail sales—ex-vehicles—are better than they look; the war is unlikely to hurt tourist inflows.

24 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Singapore inflation still ticking up in Q1, but worse is yet to come

• Singapore’s combined January-to-February CPI suggests that inflation is still ticking up in Q1...
• …We note an alarming increase in health insurance premiums, which is being reined in for Q2.
• The Middle East energy crisis looks set to push inflation above 2% in Q2.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 March 2026

Inflation broadly accelerating in Singapore in Q1

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, February 2026

• In one line: Infrastructure sectors carrying more of the weight alone; overall momentum still solid.

23 March 2026 Emerging Asia BSP's April meeting 'live', but a hike for signal sake would be misguided

• Last week’s fuel-price gains in the Philippines and the firmer oil outlook will lead to 4%-plus inflation…
• … A hike is now on the table for April, but it would be rash, given the more forgiving backdrop this time.
• The start of modest fuel-price rises in Thailand will help lift the economy out of outright deflation.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 19 March 2026

Malaysian headline export growth in Q1 still up from Q4, despite February miss
Inflation at bay, for now

20 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian Q1 exports stronger than expected, thanks to AI boom

• Malaysian current average Q1 expor ts are growing by 15.1%, meaning Q1 GDP will likely be strong…
• …Inflation was held at bay in Februar y but will now likely rise, because of higher crude oil prices.
• Taiwan’s central bank left rates on hold, and seems to be too sanguine about growth in 2026.

19 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor India should be able to stomach oil at $150 this year; main risk is 2027

• Oil at $150 should pose no urgent CPI risk to India; fiscally, it’s better placed to manage this shock…
• …Main threat would be higher imported inflation from late-2026, as the CA deficit would blow up.
• Indonesia could see an 11% rise in subsidised fuel prices this year—more than in 2022—with $150 oil.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17 March 2026

Electronic exports in Singapore continue to boom