AN—UNWELCOME—FEELING OF DEJA VU FROM BI
- …GDP GROWTH IN DEVELOPED ASEAN PICKS UP IN Q1
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s customs trade balance missed widely in March; the adjusted gap sank to a 19-month low…
- …Export leading indicators remain lacklustre, while import growth is getting a lift from global oil prices.
- Vietnam’s trade surplus collapsed in April; it looks like export growth truly has peaked, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Downward pressure on the Thai baht continues to intensify
Correction in Vietnamese exports bleeds into Q2
Ignore the headline; retail sales growth in Vietnam is still wobbling
Expect a further leg up in Vietnamese inflation in May, the likely peak
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We would choose the SBV if we had to pick the source of a third monetary policy shock this year.
- Malaysian headline and core inflation have been below 2.0% for over a quarter now...
- … And we see little risk of a blow-out to either figure, other than a mismanaged subsidy withdrawal.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BI surprised yesterday with a 25bp hike, yet again citing a need to stabilise the IDR; this is just overkill.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth in March barely stayed in the black; price effects saved the day…
- …Real wage growth continues to tread water around zero percent, making a Q2 turnaround unlikely.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The strong 2024 run in India’s PMIs continued in April, but they still point to sub-8% GDP growth…
- …Hiring appears to have regained momentum recently, but the hard EPFO data remain sluggish.
- Continued headline disinflation in Singapore will be tough, as the low-hanging fruit has been picked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Post-festive spending fatigue hits growth.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Firmer employment cushions a marginal softening in orders and output in India’s April manufacturing PMI
India’s services PMI remains comfortably above 60; thankfully, April saw an easing in price pressures
Singapore's inflation outlook remains challenging, depsite the March drop
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s surplus leapt unexpectedly to a 13-month high, with exports reversing their 2024 drop.
- The outlook for key commodities has brightened, pointing to an imminent return to positive growth…
- …Real demand from China also looks set to pop, but this probably won’t be felt until Q2, at the earliest.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Things are suddenly turning up for Indonesian exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Recovering external demand supports Malaysian manufacturing in Q1 Domestic export growth falls on subdued commodity prices
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The recovery in manufacturing that supported Q1 GDP growth in Malaysia is likely only to improve...
- …Prompting us to raise our 2024 full-year growth forecast to 4.8%, from 4.4% previously.
- Subdued commodity prices weighed on March exports, despite an improvement in electronics.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Sharp drop in pharmaceuticals drags on Singaporean exports
Indonesian retail sales benefit from an election pop in February
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth plummeted in March, but our advice is to take the figure in your stride...
- ...As the headline was dragged down by a series of one-off factors that should unwind in April.
- Indonesian retail sales growth spiked during the February election; don’t expect any follow-through.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Net sales growth in the Philippines remains in the red; remittances now look unlikely to save the day.
- The consumer debt binge is lasting much longer than we thought, but the payback is looming.
- The much-needed savings rebuild looks to be reversing, and confidence is now plunging.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian industrial production growth rebounded in February, but the climate remains challenging…
- …The inventory-to-sales ratio continues to deteriorate, while consumer demand is sagging.
Core inflation fell to a new low in March; thankfully, food-price stickiness isn’t impacting expectations.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Little real good news from the smallest deficit in nearly a year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A simultaneous easing in manufactured products and fuel & power deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
