Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

23 July 2024 US Monitor It's much too early to make election-driven changes to macro forecasts

  • All bets are off for November, so it makes little sense to change macro forecasts at this point.
  • The further fall in pending home sales in May points to a steep decline in existing home sales in June.
  • We expect a weaker labor market and ongoing lack of supply to mean sales remain subdued for some time.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

22 July 2024 US Monitor Taylor rules signal faster rate cuts than the Fed and markets expect

  • Interest rate rules monitored by the FOMC suggest rates should already have been reduced to 4%.
  • Policy rules are sensitive to the assumed neutral rate, but also to unemployment, which will rise further.
  • The latest readings for a raft of leading indicators suggest that lower housing inflation is here to stay.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed

Claims boosted by auto plant shutdowns and Hurricane Beryl, but the underlying trend is rising.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: Housing Starts, June 2024

Tentative signs of recovery in the multi-family sector, but single-family starts look set to fall further.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

19 July 2024 US Monitor Equipment investment likely surged in Q2, but expect a Q3 partial unwind

  • Equipment investment likely leapt by about 7% in Q2, driven by surging transport and computer spending...
  • ...But these components are volatile; high borrowing costs will weigh on capex unrelated to the AI boom.
  • The jump in jobless claims was due to auto plant closures and Hurricane Beryl, but the trend is rising too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

18 July 2024 US Monitor Q2's rapid growth in manufacturing output will be a one-off

  • The manufacturing downturn is over, but growth in output in the second half of this year will be sluggish.
  • High mortgage rates and excess new home inventory suggest single-family housing starts will fall further.
  • We look today for a pick-up in initial jobless claims, but the data are prone to unpredictable swings in July.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, June

Real consumption likely grew at a near-2% rate in Q2, down from 2023’s rapid pace.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

17 July 2024 US Monitor Hot June retail sales likely weather-related; the consumer is slowing

  • The jump in core retail sales in June has the hallmarks of a weather-related blip; expect a pullback in July.
  • We expect partial recoveries in June housing starts and building permits, but a poor outturn for Q2 overall. 
  • Manufacturing output likely grew briskly in both June and Q2, but the recovery will slow in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

16 July 2024 US Monitor Homebase data usually give a poor steer in July; best to cast a wider net

  • Our Homebase model points to a 200K rise in private payrolls, but its errors in prior Julys have been big...
  • ...So we will place more weight this time on the NFIB, S&P Global, ISM and regional Fed business surveys. 
  • Headline retail sales probably fell in June, due to a slump in sales of autos and gasoline.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

15 July 2024 US Monitor June core PCE likely to print near 0.15%, teeing up September rate cut

  • The June core PCE deflator likely undershot the Fed’s implied forecast pace for a second straight month.
  • The jump in PPI trade services looks like noise; margins likely will come under renewed pressure in Q3.
  • People expect higher unemployment and lower inflation; the Fed needs to ease, soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

12 July 2024 US Monitor June CPI data bolster the case for multiple Fed easings this year

  • Plunging airline fares flattered June’s tiny rise in the core CPI, but most services prices were subdued too.
  • CPI data and our PPI forecasts map to a 0.17% rise in the core PCE deflator, but our estimate will shift today.
  • The Michigan consumer sentiment index probably rose slightly in July, lifted by a surging stock market.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

11 July 2024 US Monitor Auto insurance likely drove an above-trend rise in the June core CPI

  • Auto insurance prices likely rebounded in June, driving a 0.3% increase in the core CPI...
  • ...But we look for chunky falls in vehicle prices and a modest increase in core-core services prices.
  • We look for a rise in jobless claims today, as auto plant and school closures overwhelm the seasonals.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

10 July 2024 US Monitor Powell stays quiet on rate cut timing, but emphasizes labor market risks

  • Mr. Powell still wants more good inflation data, but the tiring job market is gaining more of his attention.
  • The NFIB survey ticked up in June, but pressure on the economy from high rates remains intense.
  • The pick-up in Redbook sales almost certainly overstates current momentum in consumers’ spending.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

9 July 2024 US Monitor Will the June jobs data trigger dovish testimony from Chair Powell today?

  • Job gains are no longer “strong”; Powell might signal rates will be cut swiftly if the slowdown continues.
  • Consumers are increasingly worried about losing their jobs, and for good reason.
  • NFIB survey likely to suggest that small businesses remain under pressure from high rates.  

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Employment Report, June

Weakening in private payroll growth points to multiple rate cuts in H2. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

8 July 2024 US Monitor Fears of a labor market downturn will supplant inflation worries at the Fed

  • Private payroll growth slowed sharply in Q2; revisions could easily worsen the picture.
  • Tight monetary policy is the primary cause; employment growth will slow further in Q3.
  • Wage growth now is consistent with the 2% inflation target; the Fed will ease multiple times in H2.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

5 July 2024 US Monitor The Sahm unemployment rule will be triggered soon, but probably not today

  • We’re sticking with our forecast that payrolls rose by 160K in June, below the 190K consensus.
  • The unemployment rate likely was unchanged at 4.0%, but large sampling error creates uncertainty.
  • Neither the ISM or S&P services PMI is clearly better than the other; the truth likely lies between the two.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,