- Auto insurance prices likely rebounded in June, driving a 0.3% increase in the core CPI...
- ...But we look for chunky falls in vehicle prices and a modest increase in core-core services prices.
- We look for a rise in jobless claims today, as auto plant and school closures overwhelm the seasonals.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mr. Powell still wants more good inflation data, but the tiring job market is gaining more of his attention.
- The NFIB survey ticked up in June, but pressure on the economy from high rates remains intense.
- The pick-up in Redbook sales almost certainly overstates current momentum in consumers’ spending.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Job gains are no longer “strong”; Powell might signal rates will be cut swiftly if the slowdown continues.
- Consumers are increasingly worried about losing their jobs, and for good reason.
- NFIB survey likely to suggest that small businesses remain under pressure from high rates.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Weakening in private payroll growth points to multiple rate cuts in H2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Private payroll growth slowed sharply in Q2; revisions could easily worsen the picture.
- Tight monetary policy is the primary cause; employment growth will slow further in Q3.
- Wage growth now is consistent with the 2% inflation target; the Fed will ease multiple times in H2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We’re sticking with our forecast that payrolls rose by 160K in June, below the 190K consensus.
- The unemployment rate likely was unchanged at 4.0%, but large sampling error creates uncertainty.
- Neither the ISM or S&P services PMI is clearly better than the other; the truth likely lies between the two.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Layoffs still trending higher, but the data will be noisy over the coming weeks.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chair Powell sounds more optimistic on inflation, but wants to see no further rise in unemployment.
- We expect initial claims above the consensus for the fifth time in six weeks; summer data will be volatile.
- The June ISM services survey will probably provide further signs of disinflation ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Revisions to Homebase data and the latest business surveys support our 125K private payrolls forecast.
- High rates are increasingly subduing construction; private fixed investment likely was unchanged in Q2.
- Manufacturing continues to struggle, with little sign of that changing anytime soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
The economy’s main engine of growth is looking a lot weaker.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Real consumption set for another 1.5% increase in Q2; a rising saving rate will slow growth further soon.
- The 0.08% core PCE print was driven by noisy components, but underlying services inflation eased too.
- We look for another sub-50 ISM manufacturing index in June; tight monetary policy is preventing a revival.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Probably depressed marginally by Juneteenth; the trend remains upwards.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We’re are lowering our Q2 GDP forecast to 1.0%, from 1.5%, due to May’s poor trade and orders data.
- We estimate that the core PCE deflator rose by just 0.11% in May; a run of sluggish increases beckons.
- Real consumption likely rose by 0.3% in May, with growth of less than 2% looking likely for this quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Consistent with slowing consumption growth and a gently rising unemployment rate.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We look for a small dip in initial claims to 235K, due to Juneteenth, but the trend still is rising.
- May’s durable goods orders likely will point to a big drag on Q2 GDP growth from equipment investment.
- Net trade also looks set to weight heavily on Q2 growth, even if the goods trade deficit narrowed slightly in May.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
THE SLOWDOWN IS REAL, AND WILL PERSIST…
- …THE FED IS RUNNING THE RISK OF DELAYING TOO LONG
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The latest services surveys point to lower underlying inflation and a further slowdown in wage growth.
- New home sales probably dipped in May, reflecting the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year.
- Conference Board confidence data signal slower spending growth and rising unemployment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Shipping costs have rocketed, but they likely will add less than 0.1pp to core PCE inflation next year.
- The spike in shipping costs probably will unwind after tariff-related risks have abated.
- Consumer confidence likely dropped in June, with adverse implications for consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
New mortgage rates still far too high for transactions to recover
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Stocks will like Fed easing, but will be less enamored of a potentially steep drop in gross margins.
- Existing home sales fell a bit further in May and a sustained recovery looks a long way off.
- The pick-up in the employment index of S&P Global PMI survey in June is probably a red herring.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
