Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Claims are still very low, but trouble ahead?
- The annual revisions to the CPI today are a black box, but they are unlikely to change the big picture.
- Core disinflation will persist, regardless of changes made to the data for last year.
- The Atlanta Fed wage tracker strongly suggests that the spike in January AHE is noise, not signal.
- The recent past is not always a good guide to the near future, especially in the labor market.
- Rising layoff announcements and weakening hiring intentions signal slower payroll growth in the spring.
- Huge residual seasonality will push down mortgage applications this month, but the trend is rising.
- The weakness of the household employment measure probably is not significant…
- …It’s a vastly inferior measure of short-term labor market trends than payrolls—and they’re not great.
- Consumer credit growth likely plunged sharply in December, after November’s inexplicable leap.
Services sector maintains its momentum
- Growth in bank lending to businesses is grinding to a halt; the SLOOS survey signals continued weakness.
- The jump in ISM services prices will matter only if it is sustained; brief swings usually are just noise.
- The sharp drop in unit auto sales in January means total retail sales likely were little changed.
Head-scratching numbers kill March stone dead, and threaten May too
- Whatever really happened to payrolls in January, leading indicators point to much slower gains in Q2.
- The spike in hourly earnings likely reflects the mis-measurement of hours, not a rebound in the trend.
- The January data have killed any chance of a March Fed easing, but we still expect the first cut in May.
- We think total payrolls rose by about 225K in January, comprising 175K private and 50K government.
- Similar gains are likely through the end of Q1, but we expect a meaningful slowing in job gains in Q2.
- Don’t worry about the jump in ISM prices paid; it’s an unreliable guide to CPI core goods prices.
Manufacturing still in the doldrums
Low ECI print makes a March easing more likely
- The Fed wants to see confirmation of its base-case forecast that inflation is headed to target…
- …If the data before March are favorable, the first ratecut will come at that meeting, but no guarantees.
- The ISM manufacturing survey likely will show that the industrial economy is still in a hole.
Consumers show little sign of tiring
- The Fed probably will abandon the idea of further hikes today, but won’t commit to easing timing.
- The Q4 employment costs index today is key; a further slowing would make a March easing more likely.
- The jump in December job openings is noise; the falling quits rate is much more important.
- We’re much more interested in the JOLTS quits rate than the headline job openings number…
- …Surging quits warned of the 21-to-22 jump in wage gains; the signal now is to the downside.
- Soaring stocks and cheaper gas are boosting consumers’ sentiment; will spending follow?
Core inflation falling steadily across all three components.
- Consumption is on track for another solid increase in Q1, but cashflow growth is slowing…
- Spending growth likely will moderate in the spring, but a serious weakening requires rising layoffs.
- Core inflation is slowing on all fronts; faster margin compression would intensify the downward pressure.
Lower mortgage rates driving sales up
Inflation matters more than the GDP overshoot, and it looks great.
- The excellent Q4 inflation numbers are much more important than the overshoot in Q4 GDP growth.
- The core PCE deflator likely rose 0.2% in December, but 0.1% is much more likely than 0.3%.
- Pending home sales probably rebounded strongly in December, with further gains ahead.