Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)

9 February 2024 US Monitor CPI revisions today are a wild card

  • The annual revisions to the CPI today are a black box, but they are unlikely to change the big picture.
  • Core disinflation will persist, regardless of changes made to the data for last year.
  • The Atlanta Fed wage tracker strongly suggests that the spike in January AHE is noise, not signal. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 February 2024 US Monitor Straws in the wind point to a weaker labor market in the spring; watch out

  • The recent past is not always a good guide to the near future, especially in the labor market.
  • Rising layoff announcements and weakening hiring intentions signal slower payroll growth in the spring.
  • Huge residual seasonality will push down mortgage applications this month, but the trend is rising.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 February 2024 US Monitor The household jobs data are deeply unreliable, especially in the short-term

  • The weakness of the household employment measure probably is not significant…
  • …It’s a vastly inferior measure of short-term labor market trends than payrolls—and they’re not great.
  • Consumer credit growth likely plunged sharply in December, after November’s inexplicable leap.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 February 2024 US Monitor Bank lending to businesses is barely rising; no real relief in the SLOOS

  • Growth in bank lending to businesses is grinding to a halt; the SLOOS survey signals continued weakness.
  • The jump in ISM services prices will matter only if it is sustained; brief swings usually are just noise.
  • The sharp drop in unit auto sales in January means total retail sales likely were little changed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: US Employment, January

Head-scratching numbers kill March stone dead, and threaten May too

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 February 2024 US Monitor Whatever the truth about January jobs, the outlook for spring is much weaker

  • Whatever really happened to payrolls in January, leading indicators point to much slower gains in Q2.
  • The spike in hourly earnings likely reflects the mis-measurement of hours, not a rebound in the trend.
  • The January data have killed any chance of a March Fed easing, but we still expect the first cut in May.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 February 2024 US Monitor Government hiring likely juiced January jobs, but alarm bells for Q2

  • We think total payrolls rose by about 225K in January, comprising 175K private and 50K government.
  • Similar gains are likely through the end of Q1, but we expect a meaningful slowing in job gains in Q2.
  • Don’t worry about the jump in ISM prices paid; it’s an unreliable guide to CPI core goods prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 February 2024 US Monitor Cautious Fed holding to May, pending confirmation of the inflation story

  • The Fed wants to see confirmation of its base-case forecast that inflation is headed to target…
  • …If the data before March are favorable, the first ratecut will come at that meeting, but no guarantees.
  • The ISM manufacturing survey likely will show that the industrial economy is still in a hole.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 January 2024 US Monitor The Fed will inch towards easing today, but will commit to nothing, yet

  • The Fed probably will abandon the idea of further hikes today, but won’t commit to easing timing.
  • The Q4 employment costs index today is key; a further slowing would make a March easing more likely.
  • The jump in December job openings is noise; the falling quits rate is much more important.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 January 2024 US Monitor The JOLTS quits rate is more important than headline job openings

  • We’re much more interested in the JOLTS quits rate than the headline job openings number…
  • …Surging quits warned of the 21-to-22 jump in wage gains; the signal now is to the downside.
  • Soaring stocks and cheaper gas are boosting consumers’ sentiment; will spending follow?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 January 2024 US Monitor The consumer looks set fair in the first quarter; later outlook is more cloudy

  • Consumption is on track for another solid increase in Q1, but cashflow growth is slowing…
  • Spending growth likely will moderate in the spring, but a serious weakening requires rising layoffs.
  • Core inflation is slowing on all fronts; faster margin compression would intensify the downward pressure.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: GDP, Q4 advance

Inflation matters more than the GDP overshoot, and it looks great.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 January 2024 US Monitor Inflation is tamed, and that matters more to the Fed than strong growth

  • The excellent Q4 inflation numbers are much more important than the overshoot in Q4 GDP growth.
  • The core PCE deflator likely rose 0.2% in December, but 0.1% is much more likely than 0.3%.
  • Pending home sales probably rebounded strongly in December, with further gains ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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