Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Samuel Tombs

11 February 2025 US Monitor Core CPI likely rose 0.3% in January; risks skewed towards a lower print

  • Manufacturers have hiked prices to game pre-tariff demand, but prices for autos and clothing likely fell.
  • Revisions to the seasonals should temper the residual seasonality in the services price data.
  • New tariffs on steel and aluminum will have minimal impact on overall inflation.

Samuel TombsUS

10 February 2025 US Monitor Stabilizing jobs numbers remove the need for near-term Fed easing

  • The recent upward inflexion in payroll growth likely will be tempered by revisions...
  • ...But January’s numbers likely were depressed by bad weather; expect a better print in February.
  • A mid-year slowing in payroll growth still looks likely, but we now look for the FOMC’s next easing in June

Samuel TombsUS

7 February 2025 US Monitor Faster AI rollout in 2025 to favor productivity at the expense of jobs

  • Output per hour rose an impressive 2.3% in 2024; surveys point to higher IT spending by firms in 2025.
  • AI spending, however, poses near-term downside risks to employment and more disinflation pressure.
  • Mixed signals on federal spending so far, but DOGE likely will drag slightly on demand and employment.

Samuel TombsUS

6 February 2025 US Monitor 2024 payroll growth to look much slower after a trio of revisions

  • March 2024 payrolls likely will be revised down by about 670K after benchmarking to UI records...
  • ...The birth-death model’s contribution to payroll growth since then probably will be revised down too.
  • We see some evidence of tariff “front-running” in December trade data; expect a lot more to come.

Samuel TombsUS

5 February 2025 US Monitor Falling job openings symptomatic of too tight monetary policy

  • Job openings are still trending down; catch-up growth in healthcare hiring is fizzling out.
  • JOLTS net hiring in December was more muted than payroll growth; January jobs will probably disappoint. 
  • Auto sales likely were hit by bad weather in January: pre-tariff purchases probably have further left to run.

Samuel TombsUS

4 February 2025 US Monitor Unusually cold weather likely depressed January payroll growth

  • We look for a 125K increase in January payrolls, well below the 170K consensus.
  • Survey indicators present an incoherent picture, but unusually cold weather likely hit employment.
  • The small fall in continuing claims points to a stable unemployment rate, but the risks are to the upside.

Samuel TombsUS

3 February 2025 US Monitor A growth scare looms, as tariffs hit and the saving rate rebounds

  • The tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump will lift consumer prices by 0.6%, if they are maintained.
  • Recent strong growth in consumption can be largely attributed to preemptive purchases of imports.
  • A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable; expect sub-2% GDP growth soon, as consumption growth slows.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, January 25

Continuing claims consistent with flat unemployment in January.

Samuel TombsUS

31 January 2025 US Monitor Consumption underpins solid GDP growth, but for how much longer?

  • GDP rose by 2.3% in Q4, and measures of underlying momentum were even stronger...
  • ...But growth is now extremely dependent on consumption, which likely will slow markedly from here. 
  • Expect a modest 0.8% rise in the Q4 ECI today, and smaller increases over coming quarters.

Samuel TombsUS

30 January 2025 US Monitor Don't mistake "a little language clean up" for a FOMC view shift

  • Chair Powell said revisions to the FOMC’s statement were “not meant to send a signal”.
  • We’re revising our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, from 2.0%, due to weak trade and inventories data.
  • Federal government payrolls could easily drop by between 100K and 200K by October. 

Samuel TombsUS

29 January 2025 US Monitor GDP growth still solid, but the cracks are becoming clearer

  • We think GDP rose by around 2% in Q4, driven mainly by another strong increase in consumption.
  • Tariffs muddy the waters, but we expect growth to be much weaker this year than in 2024.
  • The FOMC is unlikely to signal less easing after only one month’s better than expected labor market data.

Samuel TombsUS

28 January 2025 US Monitor Support to spending growth from credit will unravel by mid-year

  • People are using credit, despite its high cost, to bring forward big-ticket purchases to avoid tariffs.
  • Credit cards supported spending growth by 0.2pp in Q4; expect a similar boost in Q1, then a hefty drag.
  • Business investment probably will continue to stagnate over the next few quarters.

Samuel TombsUS

27 January 2025 US Monitor The idea of a post-election "vibes" shift is unsupported by surveys

  • Business confidence is net unchanged since before the election, while consumers are more downbeat.
  • PMI data signal strong growth in January payrolls, but other indicators point to renewed weakness.
  • We doubt Mr Trump can engineer a both boom in oil output and much lower rates in the short term.

Samuel TombsUS

January 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

RISING UNEMPLOYMENT TO SPUR FURTHER FED EASING…

  • …INFLATION WILL STILL FALL UNDER MOST TARIFF SCENARIOS

Samuel TombsUS

24 January 2025 US Monitor Housing inflation is set to slow gradually, rather than collapse

  • Ignore the Q4 plunge in the BLS new tenant rent index; it is usually revised up sharply...
  • …CPI housing inflation still looks set to slow this year, contributing to a fall in overall core inflation.
  • California wildfires lifted initial claims last week, but the pick-up in continuing claims has deeper roots.

Samuel TombsUS

23 January 2025 US Monitor The federal hiring freeze will be a small but noticeable drag on payrolls

  • The federal hiring freeze likely will reduce monthly payroll growth by about 15K from February to April.
  • Federal jobs account for just 2% of total payrolls, making a very big drag on the headline unlikely.
  • Measures of economic policy uncertainty have shot up; that’s usually a bad sign for payroll growth too.

Samuel TombsUS

22 January 2025 US Monitor Core inflation still likely to be lower by year-end in most tariff scenarios

  • The tariff outlook is uncertain, but core PCE inflation probably will be lower at the end of 2025 than now.
  • The upward impact on prices likely will be mitigated by a diversion in trade flows, among other factors.
  • Beware forecasts for January payrolls derived from Homebase data, which are extremely seasonal.

Samuel TombsUS

21 January 2025 US Monitor Trump inflation risks abound, but the 1970s are a misleading comparison

  • Tariffs are inflationary, despite claims to the contrary, and we see other upside risks during Trump 2.0…
  • …But a repeat of the runaway inflation seen in the latter half of the 1970s seems very unlikely.
  • The Fed provides a far more effective backstop against sustained inflation now than it did back then.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US CPI, December

Disinflation still progressing; core PCE deflator likely up just 0.2%.

Samuel TombsUS

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