Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

8 September 2025 US Monitor Payrolls warrant much looser policy, but 50bp next week is unlikely

  • Payrolls lack momentum, but the first estimate for August jobs typically is revised upwards.
  • Labor market slack is building, but less quickly than a year ago, when the FOMC eased by 50bp.
  • The upcoming easing cycle, however, will be prolonged; we still look for 150bp cut by mid-2026.

5 September 2025 US Monitor Sticking with 75K for August jobs, despite ADP's modest recovery

  • ADP reports average monthly private payroll gains of 79K in Q3, up from 22K in Q2...
  • ...But the link with the official data is loose and unstable; more reliable indicators remain weak.
  • ISM and S&P services surveys point to a renewed rise in services inflation, challenging our base case.

4 September 2025 US Monitor Home equity lending: A hidden lifeline for consumers' spending?

  • Home equity lending has grown considerably in recent years, but remains a shadow of its former self.
  • Weak confidence, tight lending standards, and falling home prices suggest a big spending boost is unlikely.
  • Fewer job openings than unemployed people for the first time since April 2021 will suppress wage growth.

2 September 2025 US Monitor Real consumption growth will remain listless through H2

  • Near-real time data imply July’s 0.3% increase in real spending was followed by another solid rise in August...
  • ...But spending has been stimulated by further tariff fears; real after-tax income growth is slowing.
  • Households have exhausted their excess savings and a strong positive wealth effect is no longer in play.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, July 2025

Further falls in prices likely needed to get sales moving again.

29 August 2025 US Monitor Preliminary benchmarking to imply 750K fewer jobs created in year to March

  • QCEW data up to Q4 2024 imply payrolls have been overestimated substantially; Q1 data will be weak too...
  • ...But QCEW data are revised too; the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision is usually too downbeat.
  • The birth-death model has been too generous again; unauthorized workers also will be removed from the data.

28 August 2025 US Monitor August payrolls likely will maintain the pressure for looser Fed policy

  • We look for a mere 75K rise in payrolls, despite the rebound in stock prices and decline in tariff uncertainty.
  • Reliable surveys of hiring intentions have remained weak; consumers report worsening job availability.
  • A rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August is likely too, given the latest continuing claims data. 

27 August 2025 US Monitor Tariff revenues are likely to rise sharply in Q4

  • Tariff revenues crept up by just $2B to $32B in August, but likely will reach $45B soon.
  • Tariffs have risen this month; imports from high tariff nations will rebound; the de minimis exemption will end.
  • We doubt the jump in underlying durable goods  orders in July is a sign of things to come. 

PM Datanote: US Chair Powell Jackson Hole Speech, August 2025

A September easing looks nailed on, with more likely to follow.

26 August 2025 US Monitor July orders likely to highlight the weakness of fixed investment

  • A weak month at Boeing likely hit headline orders, but orders ex-transportation probably were soft too.
  • Tariff-related uncertainty still seems to be weighing heavily on companies’ capex plans.
  • A big inventory overhang points to a further decline in new residential construction ahead.

24 August 2025 US Monitor We think a September easing will be the first of many

  • Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech flags a September easing, with more cuts likely to follow.
  • High long-term Treasury yields reflect policy risks rather than the Fed losing its inflation credibility…
  • …We think the Trump administration should step back and let the FOMC do its job.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI / Existing Home Sales

The rebound in growth implied by the PMI looks too good to be true.

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, July 2025

July’s weak employment report means inflation worries look overblown.

22 August 2025 US Monitor A big re-acceleration in economic growth still looks unlikely

  • The S&P Global PMI points to underlying growth returning to the rapid pace seen in 2024. 
  • That seems unlikely to us, given the many headwinds to growth, mostly due to tariffs.
  • We doubt the jump in services inflation suggested by the PMI will materialize either.

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, July 2025

July bounce in starts likely noise; underlying trends remain weak.

21 August 2025 US Monitor Prices probably need to fall to get the housing market moving again

  • Home sales have remained very weak despite recoveries in both supply and mortgage applications. 
  • That suggests to us that asking prices are too high, and need to come down for the market to clear.
  • Home prices have already fallen by about 1% since March and we think a further grind lower lies ahead.
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