Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, August 2025

Turnaround in consumers’ spending built on shaky foundations.

26 September 2025 US Monitor Early estimates of GDP are often wayward; payrolls are a better guide

  • We are raising our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 2.5%, from 2.0%, after August’s advance indicators...
  • ...But advance GDP estimates missed the last three major downturns; payrolls are a better gauge.
  • Residual seasonality depresses continuing claims in September; the labor market is still weakening.

25 September 2025 US Monitor The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment rate will miss the mark

  • The Chicago Fed’s new unemployment tracker relies on several inputs with a poor track records.
  • The weights of the inputs are currently unclear;  other—useful—indicators have been overlooked too.
  • The 20.5% leap in new home sales in August looks implausible to us, and the outlook remains dim. 

24 September 2025 US Monitor Only take the prices indexes of the S&P composite PMI survey seriously

  • The composite PMI is alone in signalling a return to 3% GDP growth in Q3; its margin of error is wide.
  • But the signal of slowing producer price inflation is reliable, consistent with a transitory tariff impact.  
  • We think new home sales dropped back in August, adding to the woes of homebuilders.

September 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

GDP LIKELY REGAINED SOME MOMENTUM IN Q3...

  • ...BUT CONTINUED CAUTIOUS HIRING WILL SPUR FURTHER EASING

23 September 2025 US Monitor Every indicator of future wage growth has turned south

  • The openings-to-U6 ratio has fallen materially this year, and job switchers are no longer rewarded.
  • The NFIB, regional Fed, Indeed and NY Fed consumer surveys all signal slower wage growth ahead.
  • The tariffs are chiefly responsible; wage growth has slowed most at businesses on the front line.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, September

Unemployment fears resurge; discretionary spending likely to remain subdued.

22 September 2025 US Monitor Business capex will keep struggling, despite looser financial conditions

  • Financial conditions have improved for large firms; the bond refinancing headwind has almost gone...
  • ...But the option value of waiting for more information is high; the federal policy outlook is uncertain.
  • Small businesses still face tight credit conditions; FDI is costlier; and profits are now being squeezed.

PM Datanote: US Producer Prices, August 2025

The puzzle of retailers’ margins has just been revised away.

18 September 2025 US Monitor FOMC likely to ease a further 50bp this year, but expect close votes

  • The median FOMC participant expects to ease by a further 50bp this year, but several envisage less.
  • The risks to the FOMC’s unemployment forecast are skewed to the upside; rates will fall to 3% next year.
  • Last week’s surge in mortgage refinancing is unlikely to endure; new rates are still too high.

17 September 2025 US Monitor Real consumption likely grew at an unsustainable 2% pace in Q3

  • Inflation-adjusted retail sales continued to climb in August, despite the tariffs...
  • ...But consumer have endured only one-third of the tariff costs; Q4 sales likely will be much weaker.
  • Manufacturing output edged up again in August, but capex is impeded by tariff uncertainty.

16 September 2025 US Monitor Mostly upside risk to the consensus for August retail sales

  • We look for a 0.5% rise in total retail sales in August, slightly above the consensus...
  • ...Auto sales likely fell by about 1%, but most indicators of the control measure point to solid growth. 
  • Homebase data are robust for the payroll survey week; shame they are no longer a bellwether.

15 September 2025 US Monitor FOMC too nervous about inflation to endorse fully the market curve

  • A 25bp easing this week is highly likely, but the vote probably will be split three ways.
  • Committee members are still divided on whether rising inflation or unemployment is the bigger risk...
  • ...That discord will rule out clear guidance on future easing, though markets will still price-in a big shift.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, September 6, 2025

Surge driven by Texas; the trend is still gently upward sloping.

PM Datanote: US CPI, August

Tariffs continuing to lift goods prices; pass-through only one-third complete.

12 September 2025 US Monitor August's spike in services prices won't last; the details are reassuring

  • Tariffs continued to lift goods prices in August; we think pass-through is now about one-third complete.
  • Airline fares and accommodation services prices are unlikely to rise much further after leaping in August.
  • The outsized August jump in CPI rents is just noise around a slowing trend; nothing to worry about.

11 September 2025 US Monitor Pressure on retailers' margins is building, thanks to the tariffs

  • Retailers’ margins began to buckle in August under tariff pressure; expect a significant squeeze ahead.
  • Producer prices for goods are still rising in response to tariffs, but the underlying cost picture is benign.
  • The core PCE deflator likely rose briskly in August, but no sign of the services price surge implied by the ISM.
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