Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

21 May 2025 US Monitor Homebase signals solid May jobs, but its track record is subpar

  • Homebase data signal a 150K rise in May private payrolls, matching the average of the last three months...
  • ...But its skew towards hospitality means it is a poor overall indicator; others have a better track record.
  • Major consumer confidence surveys have diverged markedly; we suspect political bias is the problem. 

Samuel TombsUS

20 May 2025 US Monitor How stimulative will fiscal policy be if the "Big Beautiful Bill" passes?

  • The reconciliation bill implies a 1.8% boost to the deficit, relative to the baseline of a small fiscal tightening. 
  • But more pay-fors likely will be added in order to pass Congress, and tariffs will offset most of the boost.
  • Temporary and short-term jobs are holding up well, providing some reassurance about employment.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, May

 Extremely low response rate and partisan divide raise questions over reliability.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, May

 Pointing to a sharp fall in new home sales & residential construction.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, April

Recent resilience unlikely to last beyond the summer.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US PPI, April

Pointing to a mere 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator, and margin pressure for distributors.

Samuel TombsUS

19 May 2025 US Monitor April data consistent with consumers bearing nearly all the tariff costs

  • April import price data damage the theory that overseas manufacturers will absorb some tariff costs.
  • PPI trade services prices—gross margins—usually are revised up; retailers are planning June price hikes.
  • Residential construction payrolls are vulnerable to a drop in housing starts; the market is oversupplied.

Samuel TombsUS

16 May 2025 US Monitor Resilience in consumers' spending on goods unlikely to last

  • Retail sales held up relatively well in April, clinging on to nearly all their solid gains in March.
  • But sales volumes are likely to falter soon, as the wave of pre-tariff purchases unwinds in earnest.
  • A more substantial pass-through from tariffs to retail prices probably will soon weigh on sales volumes too. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

15 May 2025 US Monitor How high will inflation rise in plausible scenarios for tariffs?

  • The current menu of tariffs would lift the core PCE deflator by about 1pp, mostly over the next year.
  • But uncertainties persist over the speed and extent of pass-through, and the tariff rates themselves. 
  • Ending exemptions and applying the threatened reciprocal tariffs could push core inflation as high as 4%.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

14 May 2025 US Monitor Services inflation will keep trending down, offsetting some tariff pressure

  • The April CPI report contained early signs of tariffs pushing up goods prices, with much more to come…
  • …But services inflation remains relatively muted, and we think further declines are in the pipeline. 
  • The April NFIB survey points to much weaker capex spending and relatively subdued services inflation.

Samuel TombsUS

13 May 2025 US Monitor Inflation outlook little changed by China deal, but exports will be firmer

  • The inflation outlook is little changed by the China “deal”; less trade will be rerouted via lower tariff nations.
  • The export outlook, however, is brighter, so we are lifting our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1½%, from 1¼%.
  • We look for unchanged April retail sales, but 0.5% gains in both sales ex-autos and the control measure.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Productivity, Q1

Mismeasurement likely distorting the Q1 numbers; underlying trend solid.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

12 May 2025 US Monitor April CPI set to show inflation had been tamed, before the tariff shock

  • We look for a below-consensus 0.2% gain in the April headline CPI; the egg price surge likely unwound…
  • …But rising vehicle prices and a partial rebound in hotel room rates likely drove a 0.3% rise in the core CPI.
  • It's too soon to see major tariff-related price hikes, and weak demand suggests airline fares stayed lower.

Samuel TombsUS

9 May 2025 US Monitor Limited pre-tariff stockpiling suggests little buffer against inflation

  • The monthly inventories data show very little in the way of pre-tariff stockpiling in most industries... 
  • ...Consistent with trade data showing that the Q1 jump in imports was limited to a few specific goods. 
  • Mismeasurement of pharma inventories suggests Q1 GDP growth was underestimated by around 1pp. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, April

We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

8 May 2025 US Monitor An unhurried, uncertain FOMC likely to remain inactive in June

  • The FOMC sees little cost in waiting to discover which side of its dual mandate needs most attention.
  • A lot more tariff-sensitive data and news will come between the June and July meetings; the FOMC will wait.
  • BED data point to a 20K fall in the birth-death model’s contribution to monthly payroll growth ahead.

Samuel TombsUS

7 May 2025 US Monitor FOMC to remain non-committal on the 2025 rate outlook

  • Markets have relaxed and the economy is holding up, so the FOMC needn’t signal a June easing today.
  • The FOMC will have two more CPI reports and news on reciprocal tariffs if it waits until July.
  • The latest trade data suggest pre-tariff stockpiling was very limited outside of a couple of sectors.

Samuel TombsUS

6 May 2025 US Monitor Lower oil prices will provide very little boost to the economy at large

  • The 20% drop in oil prices since early April probably will provide no real boost to the overall economy...
  • ...the lift to consumers’ real incomes will be offset by weaker spending in energy-intensive areas.
  • The ISM services prices index jumped in April, but other survey indicators suggest no cause for alarm. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

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