PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, June

Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

28 July 2025 US Monitor Headline GDP likely jumped by 3% in Q2, obscuring underlying weakness

• We think headline GDP leapt by around 3% in Q2 overall, but underlying growth was much weaker…
• …Look for a tepid 1½% gain consumers’ spending and a drop of about 2½% in fixed investment…
• …But measurement issues likely meant a huge contribution from net trade was only partly offset elsewhere.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US S&P Global PMI / New Home Sales

Bounce in the PMI looks too good to be true.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, July 19

Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, June

Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

25 July 2025 US Monitor. Trade deal progress implies little change in average tariff rates

• Recent completed and rumoured trade “deals” mean August 1 looks like less of a tariff cliff-edge. 
• But these agreements imply little change in the overall average effective tariff rate on US imports. 
• The weakness in new home sales in June probably is here to stay, weighing further on housing starts. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

24 July 2025 US Monitor The slide in the dollar looks like all pain and no gain

• We expect a partial recovery in the dollar as the President rows back some of his wilder tariff threats…
• …But the sharp dollar decline this year so far will add, at the margin, to the upward pressure on inflation.
• Continued uncertainty around trade policy probably will prevent a meaningful dollar boost to exports. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

23 July 2025 US Monitor Further fall in housing inflation will give the Fed some breathing room

• Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
• …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
• It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

22 July 2025 US Monitor State-level payrolls cast further doubt on a migrant exodus

• BLS data suggesting the foreign-born workforce is already rapidly shrinking look implausible.
• Sector-level payrolls in California and Texas suggest most undocumented workers remain in their jobs.
• A bird’s eye view of employment growth in the other 48 states and DC tells a similar story.

Samuel TombsUS

July 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...

• ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, June

The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, July

Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, July 12

Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, June

Sales growth less impressive in real terms; consumer slowdown continues.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

21 July 2025 US Monitor Will the unwinding of June's jump in education jobs depress Q3 payrolls?

• The jump in June education jobs is more likely to be revised away than to unwind over coming months.
• June education jobs were revised down in 2022, 2023 and 2024; no other data corroborate the 2025 jump.
• A structural break following a mid-2024 methodology change makes the Michigan survey hard to believe.

Samuel TombsUS

18 July 2025 US Monitor Clearer signs of tariff-induced weakness in June retail sales volumes

• The modest gains in nominal retail sales in June were boosted by price rises; sales volumes were stagnant.
• Real consumption likely rose by just 1½% in Q2 and is on track for even slower growth in Q3.   
• The cost of new tariffs has so far been borne entirely by US importers, rather than foreign exporters. 

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US PPI, June

Services disinflation is partly countering the tariff uplift to goods prices.

Samuel TombsUS

17 July 2025 US Monitor PPI data show tariffs are inflationary, but only for goods

• PPI and CPI data collectively point to a 0.28% increase in the June core PCE deflator; tariffs mostly to blame.
• The core PPI was unchanged partly due to a plunge in prices charged for accommodation, which are volatile.
• Announcing a shadow fed Chair is a bigger risk than removing Mr. Powell immediately from his post.

Samuel TombsUS

16 July 2025 US Monitor Tariff-related price hikes hit in June, with worse to come in July

The June rise in core goods prices, ex-autos, was the biggest in three years; import-sensitive prices leapt...

...But only a quarter of the tariff costs has come through so far; expect even bigger price rises in July.

CPI services inflation will continue to cool, but it will offset only about half the pick-up in goods inflation.  

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US CPI, June

A knock-out punch to the tariff inflation deniers.

Samuel TombsUS