UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Most supermarkets can raise wages by just 4% in 2024 and remain compliant with the National Living Wage...
- ...They no longer need to pay staff a larger-than-usual premium over the NLW, given the rise in unemployment.
- Firms told the Low Pay Commission they doubt they will pass on higher labour costs in 2024 as much as in 2023.
Samuel TombsUK
- The composite PMI edged above 50 in November, for the first time since July; consumer demand is reviving...
- ...Firms, however, are still reducing employment slightly, and output prices are rising more slowly than a year ago.
- By May, the labour market will have loosened and CPI inflation fallen enough for the MPC to start to cut rates.
Samuel TombsUK
- The OBR judges the Autumn Statement measures lift aggregate demand relative to supply by 0.1% at most.
- Fiscal policy remains set to be tightened substantially next year, almost as much as previously planned.
- Mr. Hunt might cut more taxes in March, but the rise in gilt yields after his NI announcement will instil caution.
Samuel TombsUK
- Public borrowing in October exceeded the OBR’s March Budget forecast for the first time this year.
- Revisions by the OBR to its economic assumptions likely will not lower the borrowing forecast materially.
- Mr. Hunt’s fiscal rules don’t rule out tax cuts, but he likely will delay most until after the election to buy some votes.
Samuel TombsUK
- On Thursday, Ofgem will likely announce that consumer electricity and natural gas prices will rise modestly in Q1.
- Businesses have essentially finished passing on higher energy costs to customers...
- ...Many have locked in high wholesale prices but can still slow the rate of price rises over the coming months.
Samuel TombsUK
- The official house price index in September was only 0.7% below its November 2022 peak...
- ...but the first estimate usually is revised down by 1%, and Q3’s rise in mortgage rates hasn’t impacted the data yet.
- The better outlook for mortgage rates, however, hints prices in Q1 will stabilise at 5%, not 6%, below their peak.
UK
- October’s 4.6% rate of CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp, largely due to services prices.
- The core CPI has risen at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of just 2.2% over the past three months...
- ...Some one-off price falls have supported the slowdown, but PPI data suggest it will largelybe sustained.
Samuel TombsUK
- Average weekly wages rose at a month-to-month annualised rate of just 2.9% in September.
- This first estimate will likely be revised up, but the slowing trend is now entrenched; labour market slack is growing.
- Growth in PAYE median pay has also slowed; the case for cutting Bank Rate gradually will be robust by May.
Samuel TombsUK
- Real interest rates will rise further in 2024 if nominal rates hold steady, encouraging extra private-sector saving.
- The effective interest rate on the stock of mortgages will continue to rise, even if Bank Rate is cut sharply.
- The fiscal consolidation will intensify next year; macro policy will remain restrictive even with rate cuts.
Samuel TombsUK
- We think services inflation fell to 6.7% in October, from 6.9% in September, 0.2pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Granted, Index Day was closer than usual to the school holidays, and rents CPI inflation likely continued to rise...
- ...But surveys show that substantially fewer firms raised prices than a year ago, when energy costs soared.
Samuel TombsUK
- On balance, survey indicators suggest payroll employee numbers merely held steady in October...
- ...This implies the claimant count rose, given further workforce growth, but it is an imperfect unemployment gauge.
- Month-to-month growth in average weekly wages likely slowed in September, despite public-sector pay deals.
UK
- Momentum in nominal GDP has meant that public borrowing has undershot the OBR’s forecast this year...
- ...But, in the medium term, the outlook for higher debt interest payments will dominate the tax receipts windfall.
- Mr. Hunt will cross his fingers and hope for scope to cut taxes in the Budget, rather than risk markets’ ire this time.
Samuel TombsUK
- We look for a 0.2% month-to-month decline in GDP in September, below the no-change consensus.
- Warmer-than-usual weather hit output in the retail and energy-supply sectors; car sales likely plunged too.
- Strikes in the health sector were more disruptive than in August but look set to moderate in Q4.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC’s forecasts imply it doesn’t expect to cut Bank Rate next year, even as modestly as markets expect...
- ...But Mr. Bailey downplayed the forecasts, and the pledge tokeeprates“restrictive” stillleavesroomforcuts.
- We expect services CPI inflation in Q4 to undershoot the MPC’s forecast, easing concerns about upside risks.
Samuel TombsUK
- The NLW looks set to rise by about 7% next April, while the Real Living Wage has just been increased by 10%.
- Fewer people than last year, however, are paid the NLW, and supermarkets may shrink their premium to the NLW.
- Now ample labour market slack will bear down on pay rises offered to the bulk of employees not on the NLW.
Samuel TombsUK
- CPI inflation likely fell sharply in October, driven chiefly by the energy component...
- ...but BRC and Eurozone data are consistent with further declines in food and core goods CPI inflation too.
- Our headline rate forecast, 4.6%, is 0.3pp below the MPC’s, but is subject to revision as more data come in.
UK
