UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- The BoE’s Q1 Inflation Attitudes survey is encouraging; long-run expectations are below average.
- A methodology change in 2020 distorted the data though, potentially biasing expectations downwards.
- YouGov’s survey, meanwhile, shows long-term expectations 0.4pp above average.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC will need to cut rates rapidly if the weak Report on Jobs survey is right about pay growth.
- The RoJ reliably shows the direction of pay but is less good at measuring the precise growth rate.
- Other—also reliable—surveys are stronger; pay is slowing, but not as much as the RoJ indicates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Weaker-than-expected inflation and wages likely raise MPC confidence in a summer rate cut.
- A stronger-than-expected growth rebound suggests some caution still.
- So, we expect no major change to the guidance at the MPC’s meeting on March 21.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP’s 0.2% month-to-month gain in January shows last year’s recession will prove fleeting.
- Stripping out the noise, GDP has been improving since the low point last October.
- We expect GDP to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, beating the MPC’s forecast of 0.1%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Slowing employment growth shows that the labour market continues to loosen gradually.
- LFS sample problems mean the MPC won’t place much weight on the unemployment rate.
- Softer-than-expected wage growth will give the MPC a little extra confidence in a summer rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think the headline rate of CPI inflation fell to 3.5% in February from 4.0% in January.
- Risks are for a lower reading, as our headline CPI inflation forecast is on the cusp of rounding to 3.4%.
- We expect services inflation to slow to 6.1% in February, from 6.5%, matching the MPC’s forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for PAYE employment to rise 30K in February and the unemployment rate to stay at 3.8%.
- We expect a 0.4% month-to-month rise in average weekly earnings ex bonuses...
- ...Leaving year-over-year wage growth on track to exceed the MPC’s Q1 forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Constrained by economic forecasts, the Chancellor mustered tax cuts of only 0.5% of GDP in 2024/25.
- That boosts GDP 0.2%, and inflation less. Duty freezes lower MPC near-term inflation forecasts 0.2pp.
- This won’t shift the economic needle, or the MPC’s thinking, much. We expect the first rate cut in June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think GDP rose 0.2% month-to-month in January, as retail sales stormed back from December’s drop.
- That is not a flash in the pan, as the PMI shows firms’ optimism in the growth outlook at a two-year high.
- We expect GDP to rise 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 3.5% in February, from 4.0% in January, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Base effects should cut services inflation, while weaker costs continue to reduce goods inflation.
- Another ONS update to the CPI weights should have only a small impact outside of airfares.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The stronger flow of consumer credit in January backs up the rebound in retail sales.
- Households’ real liquid assets are rising faster than pre-Covid, thanks to higher saving and lower inflation.
- Consumers do not need to raise their saving rate, so real wage gains will boost spending in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- The PMI output prices balance implies the underlying services CPI is still rising at a 5% annualised pace.
- Take that signal seriously; the balance has reliably captured big service inflation swings in the past.
- Other surveys support the PMI, showing still- elevated wage growth is driving services inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- House prices have continued to recover over the winter, but sales instructions are also rising alongside demand.
- Affordability will remain a key barrier for many would-be buyers this year.
- We will need to revise up our forecast for a 5% rise in prices between Q1 and Q4 if Mr. Hunt cuts stamp duty.
Samuel TombsUK
- The effective rate on the stock of mortgages likely will rise by about 50bp this year, less than 2023’s 86bp increase...
- ...Fewer households have to refinance in 2024, and the rate increase for those that do will be much smaller.
- The household debt-to-income ratio has fallen to just 122%, well below its 2015-to-2019 average, 135%.
Samuel TombsUK
- PMI data point to GDP rising 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1; firms expect the upturn to gather momentum ahead.
- The services employment index exceeds its 1998-to-2019 average, bringing the risk of labour market re-tightening.
- The recovery, however, has been supported by expectations of falling rates; the MPC needs to deliver some cuts.
Samuel TombsUK
- Public borrowing in 2023/24 is set to undershoot the OBR’s Autumn Statement forecast by about £10B.
- The OBR will revise down its forecast for debt interest payments in 2024/25 by around £14B...
- ...enabling Mr. Hunt to cut taxes materially without risking markets’ ire with higher debt issuance projections.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC will see labour market data for April, showing the impact of the NLW hike on wages, if it waits until June.
- The MPC also will have two more CPI reports to hand if it waits until June; both likely will show sub-2% inflation.
- Most Committee members would rather wait too long than cut prematurely; the cost of waiting should be low.
Samuel TombsUK
- The response rate to the Labour Force Survey of households remained low in Q4, despite reforms.
- The response rate for the “TLFS”, which is set to replace the LFS in September, is only slightly higher.
- The response rates for the business surveys used for the GDP and wages figures, however, remain high.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC won’t put much weight on news GDP fell again in Q4, not least due to the upward bias in revisions.
- The downside surprise in GDP relative to the MPC’s forecast was largely due to real government expenditure.
- Surveys of business and consumer confidence have strengthened into 2024; expect GDP to rise again in Q1.
Samuel TombsUK
- Headline CPI inflation and services CPI inflation both undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp in January.
- Sharp falls in accommodation prices and airfares helped but the underlying rate of services price rises also eased.
- The headline rate still looks set to fall below the 2% target in Q2, with core CPI inflation down to 3.0% by May.
Samuel TombsUK
