UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- We expect the flash payrolls estimate to show a 10K month-to-month fall in January.
- Stabilising single-month unemployment suggests the headline jobless rate will hold at 5.1% in December.
- Wage inflation will tick down in December, but surveys suggest that pay gains will plateau soon.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.1% in January, from 3.4% in December.
- Education, airfares and energy prices will all contribute to the inflation slowdown at the start of the year.
- But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel prices mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.
HOUSE PRICE INFLATION JUMPS IN NOVEMBER...
- ...AND BUYER DEMAND HAS FURTHER TO IMPROVE IN 2026
- The ONS updates CPI weights twice a year, in January and February.
- Our forecast of weight changes raises our inflation forecast only fractionally; by 3bp on average in 2026.
- ONS improvements to hotel price measurement will likely reduce seasonal swings in the component.
- Surveys support our call for GDP growth to have picked up to 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- A dovish MPC means we have brought forward our forecast for the next cut to March, from April.
- We think this will be the last reduction in this rate cycle, however, as wages are proving sticky.
- In one line: Dovish vote and minutes make March close call and signal a desire to cut twice this year at least.
- In one line: Construction activity to grind only modestly higher as tailwinds dissipate.
- In one line: Autos registrations will continue to rise slowly over the coming year.
- In one line: Rebounding growth as uncertainty falls and stubborn price pressures point to just one Bank Rate cut this year.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity can rise at a steady rate in 2026.
- In one line: More downbeat money and credit data, but good enough to signal economic growth close to potential.
- A dovish five-to-four MPC vote to hold rates alongside changes to guidance signal a March rate cut.
- The MPC slashed its two-year-ahead inflation projection by 30bp, justifying two rate cuts this year.
- We shift our call to a March rate cut, from April before, but think sticky pay will stop the MPC easing again.
- The January PMI hit an 18-month high, consistent with 0.3-to-0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q1.
- Jobs continue to fall, according to the PMI, as the payroll-tax hike forces firms to cut back.
- But falling jobs are structural; PMI price balances were broadly steady above inflation-target-consistent levels.
- Issuance changes, a drop in the fiscal risk premium and weaker data pushed down yields from November.
- But the gilt-market rally is reversing as political risk rises and the market prices fewer cuts from the MPC.
- We expect 10-year and 30-year yields to rise to a 2026 high of 4.60% and 5.40%, respectively, in Q3.
- Mining output likely rose sharply in December as Brent and Forties loadings surged…
- ...but falling manufacturing activity and energy supply output will drag on GDP growth.
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q4 of 0.1%, but it could tip to 0.2%.
- In one line: House price inflation will continue to steadily rise over the coming year.
- A big jump in the BRC’s shop price index provides a warning of sticky price pressures.
- The lending data for December were more downbeat than November’s, but consumers still seem content.
- We forecast a six-to-three vote for a hold at this week’s MPC meeting, and expect little change to guidance .
POST-BUDGET REBOUND AND STICKY PAY GROWTH...
- …SO THE MPC CAN CUT RATES JUST ONCE THIS YEAR
- House prices jumped in November, leaving our call for a 2.0% year-over-year gain in Q4 2025 on track.
- We expect the market to heat up in 2026, as new buyers return from the sidelines.
- House price inflation should rise to 3.0% by Q4 2026, supported by stronger demand and weak supply.
- We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at its February 5 meeting.
- The decision is a foregone conclusion, so focus will be on the guidance, which we expect to change little.
- Pay settlements likely slowing only slightly in 2026 will keep the MPC coy about the timing of the next cut.
