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  • Increased political uncertainty and high energy costs weighed on business sentiment in May.
  • But the PMI overreacts to political noise, and price pressures remain strong.
  • We stick to our July rate-hike forecast, but it’s a much closer call as downside risks to growth rise.

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Keywords for: 22 May 2026 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence