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18th May 2026 11:59UKDaily Monitor
  • Betting markets give Sir Keir Starmer only 15% chance of being Prime Minister after September.
  • So, rates markets have likely mostly priced in the impact of the Labour Party leadership changing.
  • We estimate 10-year yields would rise another 7-to-10bp should Mr. Burnham win a leadership contest.

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Keywords for: 19 May 2026 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence