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  • We will need to remove a rate hike from our forecast if the peace-plan-related energy-price fall is sustained.
  • But the April PMI suggests that firms are already contending with surging inflation pressures…
  • ...And resilient growth means that rate-setters must prioritise price pressures over output losses.

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Keywords for: 7 May 2026 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence