UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Official house price inflation reached a 26-month high in February, at 5.4%, up from 4.8% in January.
- Momentum will dip temporarily as the stamp-duty distortion unwinds…
- ...But strong wage growth and falling interest rates should still deliver house price inflation of 4% in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- New rules will cut immigration by 98K a year—0.2% of the population—according to government estimates.
- We estimate that the curbs will slow potential growth by 0.1% per year, raising the pressure for tax hikes.
- A greater sectoral mismatch between workers and jobs will likely result too, adding to wage pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Strong underlying growth momentum and President Trump’s backtracking on tariffs boost our forecasts.
- We boost our growth forecasts to 1.1% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, each up 0.2pp..
- We see risks to the consensus, and the MPC’s forecast, for April CPI skewed heavily upwards.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Small boost from tariff-front running, which likely continued as President Trump pushed back reciprocal tariffs by 90-days.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Fading consumer caution will keep GDP ticking along.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- UK GDP was surprisingly strong again in March; the economy was ticking over fine ahead of the trade war.
- We think the MPC is far too pessimistic in pegging underlying growth at 0.0% in Q1.
- We raise our forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradually easing labour market justifies further gradual rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Easter distorts the BRC, but look through that and retail sales volumes are still rising strongly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Job and pay growth improve slightly as payroll tax drag eases, but the MPC downplay the REC now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, above the MPC’s forecast, 3.4%.
- We estimate that indexed, government-set and utility prices will add 120bp to April inflation.
- We see risks to the MPC’s forecast skewed upwards, as a raft of cost rises could prompt price rises.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The labour market is easing gradually, and vacancies suggest the market is now a little ‘loose’.
- But March and April look like the low point for jobs, with jobless claims steady and redundancies falling.
- Pay growth is stronger than slack suggests, and too punchy to deliver sustainable 2% inflation soon.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Volatility at the long end of the gilt curve will fail to deter the MPC from continuing QT from October.
- The level of reserves in the system is elevated, and rate-setters are keen to dispose of APF assets.
- We expect the BoE to reduce the pace of QT only modestly in 2025/26, to £80B per year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
ACTIVITY UNWINDING AS STAMP-DUTY COSTS RISE...
- ...BUT WE STILL EXPECT HOUSE PRICES TO GAIN 4% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market slowdown will be temporary according to the RICS.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Keeping ‘gradual’ guidance disappointed market expectations, but the MPC are on track for a couple more cuts this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Dovish DMP but the survey was run in the eye of the storm, business responses would likely be different now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC turned more dovish last week, just not as dramatically as the market expected.
- The US–UK trade deal will have a small impact on trade flows but could relieve some uncertainty.
- Strong GDP growth and upward payroll revisions should maintain the sense of monetary caution.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Construction PMI improves but signals falling activity, it will remain weak for some time.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC shifted dovishly yesterday, cutting growth and inflation forecasts due to heightened uncertainty.
- But rate-setters disappointed the market, which had seen a chance of “gradual” guidance being ditched.
- We still look for two more rate cuts this year, but now in August—versus June previously—and November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Back-to-back rate cuts are likely as sentiment collapses, but accelerating inflation will keep MPC guidance cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
