Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

21 May 2025 UK Monitor Stamp-duty-induced unwind in housing market activity temporary

  • Official house price inflation reached a 26-month high in February, at 5.4%, up from 4.8% in January.
  • Momentum will dip temporarily as the stamp-duty distortion unwinds…
  • ...But strong wage growth and falling interest rates should still deliver house price inflation of 4% in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

20 May 2025 UK Monitor Immigration curbs will cut potential growth and lift inflation slightly

  • New rules will cut immigration by 98K a year—0.2% of the population—according to government estimates.
  • We estimate that the curbs will slow potential growth by 0.1% per year, raising the pressure for tax hikes.
  • A greater sectoral mismatch between workers and jobs will likely result too, adding to wage pressures.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

19 May 2025 UK Monitor Week in Review: Solid Q1, fading tariff drag boost growth forecasts

  • Strong underlying growth momentum and President Trump’s backtracking on tariffs boost our forecasts.
  • We boost our growth forecasts to 1.1% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, each up 0.2pp..
  • We see risks to the consensus, and the MPC’s forecast, for April CPI skewed heavily upwards.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, March 2025

  • In one line: Small boost from tariff-front running, which likely continued as President Trump pushed back reciprocal tariffs by 90-days.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GDP March 2025

  • In one line:Fading consumer caution will keep GDP ticking along.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

16 May 2025 UK Monitor A resilient economy heading into the global trade war

  • UK GDP was surprisingly strong again in March; the economy was ticking over fine ahead of the trade war.
  • We think the MPC is far too pessimistic in pegging underlying growth at 0.0% in Q1.
  • We raise our forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, but risks remain tilted to the downside.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, March / April 2025

  • In one line: Gradually easing labour market justifies further gradual rate cuts.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, April 2025

  • In one line: Easter distorts the BRC, but look through that and retail sales volumes are still rising strongly.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, April 2025

  • In one line: Job and pay growth improve slightly as payroll tax drag eases, but the MPC downplay the REC now.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

15 May 2025 UK Monitor. UK CPI preview: tax, energy and water-bill hikes to drive inflation to 3.6%

  • We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, above the MPC’s forecast, 3.4%.
  • We estimate that indexed, government-set and utility prices will add 120bp to April inflation.
  • We see risks to the MPC’s forecast skewed upwards, as a raft of cost rises could prompt price rises.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

14 May 2025 UK Monitor Labour market continues to ease, but wage growth is too high

  • The labour market is easing gradually, and vacancies suggest the market is now a little ‘loose’.
  • But March and April look like the low point for jobs, with jobless claims steady and redundancies falling.
  • Pay growth is stronger than slack suggests, and too punchy to deliver sustainable 2% inflation soon.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

13 May 2025 UK Monitor BoE to continue unwinding its balance sheet in 2025/26

  • Volatility at the long end of the gilt curve will fail to deter the MPC from continuing QT from October.
  • The level of reserves in the system is elevated, and rate-setters are keen to dispose of APF assets.
  • We expect the BoE to reduce the pace of QT only modestly in 2025/26, to £80B per year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

May 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

ACTIVITY UNWINDING AS STAMP-DUTY COSTS RISE...

  • ...BUT WE STILL EXPECT HOUSE PRICES TO GAIN 4% IN 2025

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, April 2024

  • In one line: The housing market slowdown will be temporary according to the RICS.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, May 2025

  • In one line: Keeping ‘gradual’ guidance disappointed market expectations, but the MPC are on track for a couple more cuts this year. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, April 2025

  • In one line: Dovish DMP but the survey was run in the eye of the storm, business responses would likely be different now.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

12 May 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: MPC cautiously more dovish

  • The MPC turned more dovish last week, just not as dramatically as the market expected.
  • The US–UK trade deal will have a small impact on trade flows but could relieve some uncertainty.
  • Strong GDP growth and upward payroll revisions should maintain the sense of monetary caution.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, April 2025

  • In one line: The Construction PMI improves but signals falling activity, it will remain weak for some time.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

9 May 2025 UK Monitor MPC review: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected

  • The MPC shifted dovishly yesterday, cutting growth and inflation forecasts due to heightened uncertainty.
  • But rate-setters disappointed the market, which had seen a chance of “gradual” guidance being ditched.
  • We still look for two more rate cuts this year, but now in August—versus June previously—and November.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, April 2025

  • In one line: Back-to-back rate cuts are likely as sentiment collapses, but accelerating inflation will keep MPC guidance cautious.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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