UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity will continue to recover from the tariff-induced slowdown.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but watch for chunky revisions in the final release.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI’s headline activity index fell in July and signals quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.1% in Q3.
- But a short-lived rise in global trade policy uncertainty likely spooked firms, so we expect an upward revision.
- The PMI overstates job market weakness because of a sample seemingly skewed towards large firms.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Vacancies are one of the least accurate leading indicators of near-term job growth.
- Moreover, high-frequency data suggest that vacancies have stabilised...
- ...In part as small firms’ hiring intentions recover sharply from payroll-tax-hike-induced falls in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that most of the fall in payrolls since October has been driven by payroll-tax hikes.
- 35K of the payroll drop likely reflects mismeasure-ment, as workers switch to self-employed status.
- Job growth should ease as firms complete their adjustment to the tax hikes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Sticky wage and price gains are being caused in part by falling MPC credibility.
- Household inflation expectations sit higher than their relationship with inflation implies, and are still rising.
- The UK is an outlier in Europe, where inflation expectations seem to have behaved much better.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Potential future tax hikes hit hiring sentiment, but wage growth is slowing only gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Recovering as the Stamp Duty disruption fades
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We reluctantly brought forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.
- Underlying GDP is trending up, retail sales will bounce strongly in June, and payroll falls seem to be easing.
- We continue to expect above-target inflation out to end-2027 after sticky wage growth and inflation data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Surprise! Payrolls were revised to show jobs falling less than half as much this year as previously thought.
- The payrolls trend is improving, and surveys suggest job falls are ending, while pay growth is proving sticky.
- We reluctantly bring forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Food, a motor fuels base effect and unwinding clothes discounting drove up June CPI inflation to 3.6%.
- We think the inflation surprise represents genuine news rather than noise that will unwind in July.
- We raise our forecasts, now expecting CPI inflation to average 3.6% in H2, up from 3.5% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The ONS BICS survey is timely, samples seven times more firms than the PMI and covers all the economy.
- The BICS survey suggests stickier services inflation than the PMI and a stronger job recovery since April.
- US tariffs are having a small impact on the UK economy, with 78% of firms unaffected.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect real household disposable income to grow by 2.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
- Elevated inflation expectations will likely keep wage growth slowing only gradually.
- Our call for 1.5% year-over-year consumption growth over 2025-to-27 needs only a modest saving rate fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A second consecutive drop in GDP raises the chances that the MPC cuts rate again in August.
- But GDP should bounce in June, as real estate and car output improves and retail sales gain.
- We expect May’s payrolls fall to be revised much smaller and CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
