Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July 2025

  • In one line: Manufacturing activity will continue to recover from the tariff-induced slowdown.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, July 2025

  • In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but watch for chunky revisions in the final release.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

25 July 2025 UK Monitor Flash PMI falls, but expect an upward revision in the final release

  • The PMI’s headline activity index fell in July and signals quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.1% in Q3.
  • But a short-lived rise in global trade policy uncertainty likely spooked firms, so we expect an upward revision.
  • The PMI overstates job market weakness because of a sample seemingly skewed towards large firms.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

24 July 2025 UK Monitor Signs of stabilising vacancies bode well for an easing in job falls

  • Vacancies are one of the least accurate leading indicators of near-term job growth.
  • Moreover, high-frequency data suggest that vacancies have stabilised...
  • ...In part as small firms’ hiring intentions recover sharply from payroll-tax-hike-induced falls in April.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, June 2025

  • In one line:Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

23 July 2025 UK Monitor Payroll falls should ease as tax hike drag begins to fade

  • We estimate that most of the fall in payrolls since October has been driven by payroll-tax hikes.
  • 35K of the payroll drop likely reflects mismeasure-ment, as workers switch to self-employed status.
  • Job growth should ease as firms complete their adjustment to the tax hikes.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

22 July 2025 UK Monitor The UK has an inflation problem; expectations are deanchoring

  • Sticky wage and price gains are being caused in part by falling MPC credibility.
  • Household inflation expectations sit higher than their relationship with inflation implies, and are still rising.
  • The UK is an outlier in Europe, where inflation expectations seem to have behaved much better.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, May / June 2025

  • In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Official House Price Index, May 2025

  • In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, June 2025

  • In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, June 2025

  • In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, June 2025

  • In one line: Potential future tax hikes hit hiring sentiment, but wage growth is slowing only gradually.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, June 2024

  • In one line: Recovering as the Stamp Duty disruption fades

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

21 July 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: hawkish data means 'one-and-done' cut

  • We reluctantly brought forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.
  • Underlying GDP is trending up, retail sales will bounce strongly in June, and payroll falls seem to be easing.
  • We continue to expect above-target inflation out to end-2027 after sticky wage growth and inflation data.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

18 July 2025 UK Monitor Job falls easing, and pay growth too high for 2% inflation

  • Surprise! Payrolls were revised to show jobs falling less than half as much this year as previously thought.
  • The payrolls trend is improving, and surveys suggest job falls are ending, while pay growth is proving sticky.
  • We reluctantly bring forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 July 2025 UK Monitor Most of June's CPI inflation rise was genuine

  • Food, a motor fuels base effect and unwinding clothes discounting drove up June CPI inflation to 3.6%.
  • We think the inflation surprise represents genuine news rather than noise that will unwind in July.
  • We raise our forecasts, now expecting CPI inflation to average 3.6% in H2, up from 3.5% previously.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

16 July 2025 UK Monitor The ONS's BICS survey is a goldmine of information

  • The ONS BICS survey is timely, samples seven times more firms than the PMI and covers all the economy.
  • The BICS survey suggests stickier services inflation than the PMI and a stronger job recovery since April.
  • US tariffs are having a small impact on the UK economy, with 78% of firms unaffected.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

15 July 2025 UK Monitor Consumer spending to be supported by solid income growth

  • We expect real household disposable income to grow by 2.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
  • Elevated inflation expectations will likely keep wage growth slowing only gradually.
  • Our call for 1.5% year-over-year consumption growth over 2025-to-27 needs only a modest saving rate fall.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

14 July 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: underlying growth is improving as uncertainty fades

  • A second consecutive drop in GDP raises the chances that the MPC cuts rate again in August.
  • But GDP should bounce in June, as real estate and car output improves and retail sales gain.
  • We expect May’s payrolls fall to be revised much smaller and CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 September 2024 UK Monitor Government debt on an unsustainable trajectory

  • The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
  • Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
  • Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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