Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Momentum fades as mining weakens, while domestic demand holds firm.
- In one line: Activity slips again as headwinds build.
- Brazil’s IBC-BR signals a tightening-driven slowdown, hitting industry & services; agriculture eases the pain.
- Chile’s polarised first-round election results reshape political alliances, setting the stage for the run-off.
- Peru’s BCRP held rates at 4.25%, as soft inflation and resilient activity encounter a cautious global backdrop.
- In one line: On hold, reflecting a cautious global backdrop despite continued soft inflation.
- Colombia’s sticky services inflation, indexation pressures and wage risks limit BanRep’s options.
- The resilient domestic demand and job market are sustaining growth despite fragile external conditions.
- Fiscal uncertainty, political noise and a widening trade deficit challenge BanRep’s cautious stance into 2026.
- In one line: Weak end to Q3 confirms sluggish household demand amid tight financial conditions.
- Inflation in Brazil fell markedly in October, driven by a stronger BRL and softer domestic demand.
- Services are the main growth anchor, while retail sales have weakened due to tight credit and uncertainty.
- The hawkish hold from the COPOM prepares markets for gradual 2026 rate cuts amid ongoing risks.
- Brazil — Rally extends as confidence builds
- Argentina — Soars on election relief, but risks ahead
- Colombia — Outlook still bright but cautious
- Flat CPI in Chile in October confirms easing inflation momentum, allowing gradual BCCh rate cuts ahead.
- Robust trade and capex offset softer consumption, maintaining Chile’s balanced growth in Q4 and Q1.
- Fiscal fragility remains a key medium-term issue, demanding renewed consolidation efforts.
- In one line: Inflation eases, pointing to softer Q4 average.
- In one line: Headline inflation drops again in October, supporting Banxico’s cautious easing path.
- Core inflation in Mexico remains stubborn near 4%, prompting Banxico to add a hawkish tilt to its tone.
- GDP growth is weakening as industry shrinks and consumption stagnates amid tighter credit conditions.
- Further rate cuts will hinge on stable inflation, fiscal prudence and limited trade disruption.
- In one line: Cautious COPOM holds steady amid uncertainty.
- The COPOM held the Selic at 15%, reaffirming its hawkish stance amid slow disinflation and global risk.
- Inflation expectations continue to ease, but the Board stressed patience and vigilance before any rate cut…
- …That first cut is now likely delayed to January as the BCB prioritises credibility and inflation convergence.
- In one line: Under pressure, but conditions likely will improve in Q1.
- Brazilian Real — Slips modestly on global headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Choppy gains as carry holds
- Chilean Peso — Political clarity and BCCh caution
- Brazil’s industrial output shrank again, highlighting persistent weakness across key sectors.
- The labour market—the economy’s last major support pillar—is softening amid tariff shocks and high rates.
- We expect the COPOM to hold rates at 15% today, but easing signals are likely as disinflation gains traction.
- High inflation and wage pressures reinforce BanRep’s cautious policy normalisation stance.
- The fiscal strategy has shifted towards revenue measures, as structural rigidities limit spending cuts.
- Chile’s broad-based rebound in September confirms domestic demand strength and easing mining issues.
- In one line: A poor Q3, but early Q4 indicators hint at tentative stabilisation.
- BCCh’s cautious pause reflects sticky core inflation, fragile job data and sensitivity to election-driven noise.
- …Disinflation, a stable CLP and lower energy tariffs will justify a 25bp cut in December.
- Mexico’s GDP shrank in Q3 as industry weakened further and services plateaued; Q4 will be better.
