Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)

19 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Banxico delivers another 50bp rate cut amid weak growth

  • Banxico cut rates again, but its tone was more cautious due to the recent uptick in Mexico’s inflation.
  • Economic activity is weak, and inflation is within the target range, supporting the case for further easing.
  • Argentina’s inflation slowed sharply in April, defying expectations after the FX liberalisation.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, March, 2025

  • In one line: Retail finishes Q1 strongly, but headwinds still limit momentum.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

16 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Banxico sticks to the script; Brazil's retailers perform strongly in Q1

  • Banxico delivered another unanimous 50bp cut, to 8.50%, and pointed to more easing ahead.
  • Brazil’s resilient consumption masks mounting pressures from inflation and weak services… 
  • …Tighter financial conditions are also a drag, but retail and labour data offer cautious optimism.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

15 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Rebounding on receding global trade risk

  • Brazil — Receding risk and foreign inflows
  • Mexico — Rebounding, but volatility set to continue 
  • Chile — Boosted by tariff truce and domestic tailwinds

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

14 May 2025 LatAm Monitor US-China tariff truce brings limited, though welcome, relief for LatAm

  • LatAm will see muted benefit from the tariff rollback, as global demand and prices remain under pressure.
  • The temporary truce reduces uncertainty but does not reverse regional capex and confidence headwinds.
  • Chile’s disinflation is gaining traction, offering room for further monetary policy normalisation in H2.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

13 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation stable on the surface in LatAm, but pressures linger beneath

  • Brazil’s headline inflation is stable, but services and food prices signal still-sticky underlying pressures.
  • The COPOM will hold rates steady as inflation risks linger, amid strong demand and volatile food costs.
  • Colombia’s inflation accelerated in April, challenging BanRep’s easing plans and credibility.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, April, 2025

  • In one line: Inflation steady in April, but underlying pressures persist, for now.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

12 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation ticks higher in Mexico, but underlying pressures are contained

  • Headline and core inflation in Mexico rose in April, driven mainly by seasonal services price rises…
  • …But underlying trends are contained and demand remains subdued, allowing Banxico to cut this week.
  • Peru’s BCRP cut rates to 4.50% and signalled a shift towards neutral, as inflation is well anchored, for now.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, April, 2025

  • In one line: Underlying pressures remain in check, despite a bad start to Q2.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Chile, April, 2025

  • In one line: Disinflation resumes, and the near-term outlook remains benign.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

9 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's COPOM sticks to the script but signals a long pause

  • The COPOM signalled a pause to rate hikes amid persistent inflation and emerging economic cooling.
  • Balanced inflation risks and global uncertainty drive the BCB’s flexible, data-dependent approach.
  • We see the end of the tightening cycle, with potential rate cuts delayed until late Q4 or early 2026.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

8 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Tariff pause brings relief to LatAm currencies

  • Brazilian Real —  Stability tested as external risks mount
  • Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief, but…
  • Chilean Peso — Buoyed by copper and strong real data

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

7 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile's BCCh holds rates amid global risks and domestic fragilities

  • BCCh held the policy rate at 5.0%, as external risks remain elevated and inflation is volatile.
  • Resilient growth masks deeper job-market weaknesses, limiting the scope for near-term easing.
  • Commodity-price declines highlight Chile’s vulnerability to shifting global trade dynamics.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

5 May 2025 LatAm Monitor BanRep resumes easing with caution

  • Colombia’s central bank resumes its cautious easing cycle amid fragile growth and persistent inflation risks.
  • BanRep balances disinflation momentum with fiscal slippage and intensifying external noise.
  • Uncoordinated policy signals undermine credibility as Colombia faces deteriorating  fundamentals.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, April, 2025

  • In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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