Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: External weakness and mining dragged GDP lower in Q1.
- In one line: Activity softened at the end of Q1.
- Government spending and resilient household demand continue to support activity in Colombia.
- Construction, housing and tradeable sectors remain weak, limiting productive-capacity growth.
- Persistent domestic demand reinforces inflation pressures and strengthens the case for rate hikes.
- In one line: Inflation persistence is becoming harder for the BCRP to dismiss.
- Durable goods and targeted credit programmes continue to cushion consumption in Brazil.
- Food inflation and softer essential spending point to growing pressure on household purchasing power.
- Fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulus support near-term activity but complicate the disinflation process.
- Manufacturing continues to drag on activity in Mexico, due to weak demand and capex.
- Construction volatility and the uneven execution of public investments are limiting a broader recovery.
- Mining and AI-linked exports offer partial support, but industry still points to subdued growth in H2.
- Brazil — Domestic issues cool the external-driven rally
- Mexico — Consolidating after a solid rally
- Colombia — Local flows prevent an uglier picture
- Food, fuel and services inflation in Brazil continue to rise, complicating the COPOM’s easing.
- Extractive industries and autos are supporting activity, while manufacturing and capex remain weak.
- Higher oil prices and still-elevated real rates are exposing the fragile composition of growth.
- Services inflation and labour-cost indexation are driving higher inflation in Colombia.
- Food and weather shocks add pressure, but excess demand increasingly dominates the outlook.
- BanRep likely will continue to hike, as persistent inflation will require more action ahead.
- In one line: Inflation jumped on fuel prices, but underlying pressures remained contained.
- In one line: Industrial activity continues to recover, but momentum remains fragile.
- In one line: Banxico cuts rates, likely ending the easing cycle.
- Chile’s weak goods production and softer capex are offsetting decent consumer spending growth.
- The fuel-related inflation surge reinforces BCCh’s caution, even if domestic-driven forces are curbed.
- External shocks, oil volatility and weaker activity leave policymakers facing a difficult trade-off.
- In one line: Core inflation remains sticky, keeping Banxico cautious.
- Banxico’s split vote highlights growing fears over persistent inflation and narrowing room for rate cuts.
- Weak growth and greater economic slack justify final rate cut despite elevated inflation concerns.
- External risks from oil prices, Fed uncertainty and MXN volatility dominate Banxico’s reaction function.
- Mexican peso — Resilient rebound as USD softens
- Colombian peso — Rally fades as policy doubts cap gains
- Chilean peso — Partial recovery as external issues ease
- Mexico’s broad-based decline in growth in Q1 reflects weakening consumption and capex.
- A temporary Q2 rebound driven by the World Cup and seasonal factors will not sustain stronger growth.
- Limited monetary easing and fragile fiscal dynamics constrain policy support; downside risks prevail.
- In one line: Activity is stabilizing at the margin, but the industrial sector remains a clear drag.
- BanRep’s unanimous hold risks misinterpretation as inflation rises; the policy stance is behind the curve.
- Rising expectations and resilient demand expose insufficient tightening, reinforcing the need for more.
- Fiscal slippage and market repricing tighten conditions independently, increasing pressure ahead.
- In one line: BanRep pauses, but credibility questions linger.
