Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Activity holds up, but signs of cooling are emerging.
- In one line: Q2 starts weak due to tight financial conditions.
- Brazil’s retail sales fell sharply in April, with weakness concentrated in credit-sensitive categories.
- Consumer confidence and sectoral data suggest household spending is gradually losing momentum.
- Softer activity supports further easing, but inflation limits the scope for larger cuts.
- Food and regulated prices lifted Argentina’s inflation, but underlying pressures continue to ease gradually.
- Lower sovereign spreads and reserve accumulation reflect improving confidence in fiscal sustainability.
- Stable ARS demand and restrictive financial conditions should support further disinflation ahead
- In one line: Food and utilities keep inflation elevated.
- In one line: Inflation improves, but the balance of risks remains hawkish.
- Food and electricity prices pushed inflation higher in Brazil, limiting room for further monetary easing…
- …Inflation expectations are still rising, as weather and geopolitical risks threaten further inflation pressures.
- Softer inflation supports a rate pause in Peru, but risks increasingly point away from further easing.
- The rebound in Mexico’s industry eases recession fears, but manufacturing activity is far from a boom.
- Services remain Brazil’s main growth engine, supported by resilient domestic demand…
- …But persistent inflation and softer surveys suggest services growth will moderate further.
- Brazil — Fiscal worries cap upside
- Mexico — Rally pauses as investors reassess risks
- Colombia — Elections dominate the equity story
- In one line: Inflation eased in May, but persistent services inflation will keep Banxico cautious.
- Lower electricity tariffs and softer food prices pushed Mexico’s headline inflation back into target range.
- Persistent services inflation and housing costs continue to delay a sustained downward trend.
- Oil prices, USMCA uncertainty and El Niño keep inflation risks tilted upward.
- Colombia’s inflation pressures are broadening, delaying further progress towards BanRep’s target…
- …Housing, services and food are keeping Colombian inflation elevated despite restrictive monetary policy.
- Chile’s benign CPI suggests the oil-price pass-through is limited and largely contained, for now.
- Industrial output in Brazil enters Q2 solidly, supported by commodities and resilient demand.
- Manufacturing and capital goods continue to lag, highlighting weak capex and high real rates.
- Persistent inflation and tariff risks threaten to prolong industry’s uneven recovery in H2.
- Markets favour Keiko Fujimori, but Peru’s run-off will still test confidence in institutional stability…
- …Inflation is heading north, leaving the next administration with less room for policy mistakes.
- Food prices eased in Colombia, but services, rents and utilities keep inflation pressures elevated overall.
- Brazilian Real — Rally pauses as policy risks rise
- Mexican peso — Strong fundamentals, but risks abound
- Colombian peso — Politics now the market driver
LATAM’S DISINFLATION STORY IS BREAKING DOWN
- OIL, POLITICS AND FISCAL RISKS KEEP CENTRAL BANKS ON ALERT
- El Niño could complicate LatAm’s inflation outlook just as geopolitical risks keep energy prices elevated.
- Argentina stands to benefit, while Colombia faces the region’s largest inflation risk.
- Disruption to food, energy and logistics could widen macroeconomic divergences across the region.
- Mr. de la Espriella enters Colombia’s run-off with momentum, likely backed by Ms. Valencia’s voters.
- Chile’s recovery remains fragile as mining weakness persists; non-mining sectors are struggling…
- …Business confidence points to a recovey ahead, but activity data remain stubbornly weak.
