Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)

PM Datanote: Inflation, Brazil, January, 2025

  • In one line: Modest January pressures offer little relief to a challenging inflation outlook.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

12 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Temporary disinflation in Brazil; Mexico's industrial sector woes

  • Brazil’s inflation dipped slightly in January, but the near-term outlook remains bleak…
  • …But pressures will ease in H2 as weakening domestic and external demand weigh on inflation.
  • A very, very ugly outlook for Mexico’s industrial sector under Trump 2.0; it could be avoided though.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

11 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Balancing act for BanRep and BCCh as inflation sees 'temporary' shocks

  • Colombia’s disinflation has paused, complicating BanRep’s efforts to support activity.
  • Increased political noise, elevated fiscal strain and external uncertainty are challenges for policymakers.
  • Chile’s electricity-tariff hike sparks an inflation surge, dimming hopes for further rate cuts.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, February, 2025

  • In one line: A larger cut; improving inflation outlook allows for bolder action.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation, Mexico, January, 2025

  • In one line: A good start to the year, supporting further policy normalisation. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, January, 2025

  • In one line: Inflation spikes in January, driven by electricity tariffs.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

10 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Banxico accelerates easing, but US policy will influence the outlook

  • Banxico signals further rate cuts amid disinflation, economic slowdown and easing external pressures.
  • The better inflation outlook, however, faces threats from US policy risk and domestic policy noise.
  • The Board will likely cut rates to 8% this year, if President Trump doesn’t get in the way.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, December, 2024

  • In one line: The first quarterly contraction in more than a year, and the outlook is difficult.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

7 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial slowdown emerging; inflation fully under control in Peru

  • Brazil’s industrial output beat consensus in December, yet leading indicators point to a weakening trend.
  • January’s COPOM minutes reveal a hawkish stance, despite economic activity softening.
  • Peru’s inflation remains well on target, paving the way for a final rate cut in Q2, assuming a stable PEN.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

6 February 025 LatAm Monitor A solid start for LatAm currencies, but external noise remains a threat

  •  Brazilian Real — Resilience in the face of adversity
  • Mexican Peso — Complex economic and external waters
  • Colombian Peso — Trade and fiscal issues in the spotlight 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

5 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile's economy shone brightly in Q4, and the outlook is positive

  • The industrial and commerce sectors are driving Chile’s growth, despite persistent issues in services.
  • Confidence indicators are on the mend, as activity navigates complex reforms and external pressures.
  • The BCCh will have to take a cautious approach amid sluggish employment growth and high inflation.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, December, 2024

  • In one line: The recovery continues, and expect further good news in Q1. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Temporary trade-war pause signals Mexico and US will collaborate

  • Presidents Sheinbaum and Trump agreed to pause tariffs, focusing on border-security cooperation.
  • BanRep held interest rates at 9.5%, surprising the consensus, citing inflation and Petro-Trump tensions.
  • Increasing inflation expectations and high labour costs are further threats, but BanRep will cut again.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

3 February 2025 LatAm Monitor US trade threats cast shadow over Mexico's 2025 economic outlook

  • Mexico’s economic fragility is exposed as US trade policy pushes activity to the verge of recession.
  • Banxico will have to balance slowing growth, potential US tariffs and the MXN’s performance.
  • Chile’s landmark pension reform strengthens social security and dismantles systemic uncertainty.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

January 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

EXTERNAL RISKS ARE FORCING A CAUTIOUS APPROACH…

  • …THE PETRO-TRUMP SAGA HIGHLIGHTS THE GROWING THREAT

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q4, 2025

  • In one line: A terrible end to the year, and downside risks have increased.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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