Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING AND DISINFLATION IS CONTINUING…
- …ENABLING CENTRAL BANKS TO PURSUE FURTHER RATE CUTS
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian inflation overshot in March due to elevated food prices, yet core pressures are stable.
- We expect disinflation to gather momentum in Q2 as weather conditions ameliorate.
- The COPOM meeting minutes hint at further rate reductions of 50bp in May and possibly June.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s BanRep ramped up the easing pace to 50bp, taking rates to a still-eye-watering 12.25%.
- The March decision was a divided vote, with future rate cuts expected to be data-dependent.
- BanRep will have some flexibility, given lower inflation, better external conditions and weak GDP.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The improving inflationary outlook has allowed Banxico to start an easing cycle, by 25bp to 11.00%.
- The forward guidance continues to indicate the potential for further cuts, depending on the data.
- The room for policy easing at the next meetings remains wide open, as inflation will continue to fall.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The Board exercises caution, as forward guidance is limited to one meeting.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor start to the year, but conditions will improve soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM voted unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 50bp, as expected, but has exercised caution.
- The forward guidance has been limited to one meeting ahead, due to increased uncertainty.
- A further 50bp rate cut in May is likely, with subsequent decisions contingent on the data.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula’s cabinet meeting to address issues
- Argentina — Senate rejects mega-decree
- Colombia — Petro wants a new constitution
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economy started the year strongly, despite the prevailing high interest rates.
- Private consumption, especially services, is strengthening, offsetting the industrial sector’s sluggishness.
- We expect the COPOM to cut the Selic rate by another 50bp today and retain its dovish stance.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economy had a poor end to 2023, due to still-high interest rates and uneven consumer demand…
- …But the big picture is of an economy gradually gathering speed, and the outlook is upbeat.
- The recovery will likely continue this year, accompanied by healthy external accounts.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The significant reduction in LatAm’s current account deficit last year appears promising…
- …But it was primarily due to weaker domestic demand; exports showed only modest resilience.
- The deficit is likely to widen again as the economy recovers, but better global demand will offset the hit.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Argentina’s inflation data for February highlights challenges, with emerging optimism for the future.
- President Milei’s reforms are driving confidence amid economic stabilisation efforts.
- The government will need to hone its approach to avoid stifling the economy and causing social unrest.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Facing mixed influences, but outlook upbeat
- Colombia — Positive trend, but politics a threat
- Chile — Solid domestic and external conditions
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Another 50bp rate cut is warranted in Brazil next week, with underlying inflation in check.
- We still see the possibility of a bigger cut in Q2, but challenging external conditions are posing a threat.
- Mexico’s industrial sector faces challenges despite the good start to Q1; future prospects are bright.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- US job market data stabilises yields, boosting LatAm currencies and easing pressure on policymakers.
- Colombia’s disinflation pace eased in February but will soon gather speed, as domestic demand is struggling.
- The COP’s stability will also help, assuming President Petro continues to face challenges in Congress.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Overshooting expectations, once again, by far.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets by keeping rates on hold but reducing reserve requirements.
- Chile’s inflation surged in February, due to the CLP sell-off, posing challenges for the BCCh.
- Risks and uncertainty loom as the CLP faces depreciation pressures due to the unattractive carry.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Falling inflation raises expectations of an interest rate cut this month.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The swift decline in inflation in Mexico paves the way for a potential interest rate reduction this month.
- Services inflation remains sticky, but softening economic activity indicates an upcoming downtrend.
- Brazil’s industry had a bad start to 2024, but leading indicators point to brighter conditions on the horizon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
