Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Global Publications

Below is a list of our Global Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

Global Datanote: US CPI, May

Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

12 June 2024 Global Monitor European election aftermath rattles markets

  • US - September easing remains a decent base case, despite May payrolls
  • EUROZONE - Domestic political risk returns to Eurozone financial markets
  • UK - Labour market data help the chances of an August rate cut
  • CHINA+ - China’s exports turn the corner; on track for modest growth this year
  • EM ASIA - An August RBI rate cut seems both so close and yet so far
  • LATAM - Brazil’s economic momentum hits a speed bump after promising Q1

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

5 June 2024 Global Monitor A landslide election result in Mexico

  • US - Core PCE numbers are improving, but more progress needed for rate cuts
  • EUROZONE - All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week
  • UK - Forecast review: Persistence means patience for the MPC
  • CHINA+ - US tariffs on “new trio” to have limited impact on Chinese exports
  • EM ASIA - The devil’s in the details of India’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP print
  • LATAM - Landslide victory in Mexico gives MORENA strong political capital

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

29 May 2024 Global Monitor The Bank of Korea is waiting for the Fed

  • US - Indicators pointing to a worsening labor market still in the majority
  • EUROZONE - German GDP growth will slow in Q2, but the recovery is durable
  • UK - Services inflation surprise means MPC will wait until August to cut
  • CHINA+ - BoK signals delay to rate cuts on rising inflation risks
  • EM ASIA - Here comes the downshift in Indian GDP growth from 8%-plus
  • LATAM - Banxico navigates sticky headline inflation amid slowing growth

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

22 May 2024 Global Monitor A bit for everyone in the detailed EZ inflation data for April

  • US - GDP growth is set to slow—but not collapse—squeezing down inflation
  • EUROZONE - Sticky services inflation still the key threat to the outlook for rates
  • UK - Sticking to June rate cut, as MPC words lately matter more than data
  • CHINA+ - China’s activity data mixed, ahead of incoming support policies
  • EM ASIA - Why you shouldn’t hang your hat on Thailand’s Q1 GDP surprise
  • LATAM - Brazil’s activity index rebounds in Q1, but risks looming for H2

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

15 May 2024 Global Monitor April data to show tentative improvement in China's recovery

  • US - Initial claims better at flagging labor market upturns than downturns
  • EUROZONE - Rise in food inflation in April not the start of a new trend
  • UK - June is live after MPC chops inflation forecasts
  • CHINA+ - April data likely to show tentative improvement in China’s recovery
  • EM ASIA - Weak consumers still point to a 2024 slowdown in the Philippines
  • LATAM - Banxico keeps rates on hold and strikes a more hawkish tone

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

8 May 2024 Global Monitor A dovish hold from the BoE this week

  • US - April’s payrolls likely mark the start of a shift to much weaker trend 
  • EUROZONE - Still three more SNB cuts this year, despite rising inflation in April 
  • UK - MPC Preview: set to signal more cuts than the market expects
  • CHINA+ - China’s broadening services recovery will go only so far
  • EM ASIA - Taiwan’s Q1 GDP as good as it’ll likely get in 2024
  • LATAM - Mexico’s GDP slowing amid macro concerns and policy dilemma

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

1 May 2024 Global Monitor Strong Q1 EZ GDP doesn't rule out first ECB cut in June

  • US - Does Chair Powell still see no signs of cracks in the labor market? 
  • EUROZONE - Higher GDP won’t impede first rate cut in June, as core inflation falls 
  • UK- Forecast Review:  strong growth and stubborn services
  • CHINA+ - BoJ stands fast, refusing to bow to currency-market pressure
  • EM ASIA - A strong—but frankly foolish—policy response from BI
  • LATAM - Mexico to hold rates amid inflation surprise and economic rebound

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

24 April 2024 Global Monitor Chinese GDP growth accelerated in Q1, defying expectations

  • US - Slowing incomes and a rising saving rate threaten consumption
  • EUROZONE - A decade covering the EZ; what have we learnt, and what’s next?
  • UK - Inflation surprise cannot be dismissed as Easter volaility
  • CHINA+ - China begins to flesh out its consumer goods trade-in plan
  • EM ASIA - Malaysian manufacturing growth will only pick up further from Q1
  • LATAM - Brazil’s economy starts 2024 on a solid footing, but challenges loom

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

17 April 2024 Global Monitor GDP growth in the UK is rebounding

  • US The core PCE deflator for March likely will scrape in just below 0.3%
  • Eurozone  Hunting for early Easter effects in the German and French CPIs
  • UK Bernanke Review a missed opportunity for the BoE
  • China+ China begins to flesh out its consumer goods trade-in plan
  • EM Asia Singaporean manufacturing on a gradual recovery path, at best
  • LATAM Broadening disinflation paves way for bold COPOM rate cut in May

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

10 April 2024 Global Monitor A dovish hold from the ECB this week; rates will be cut in June

  • U.S. - No softening yet in job growth, but Q2 likely will be very different 
  • EUROZONE - All set for a dovish hold by the ECB this week; rates will be cut in June 
    U.K.- Forecast Review: MPC has the confidence to cut, gradually
  • CHINA+ - BoK likely to sit tight until Q3, mindful of rising cost pressures
  • EM ASIA - Singaporean retail sales growth spikes in February on festive demand
  • LATAM - Will Brazil’s industrial sector improve after a poor start to 2024?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

3 March 2024 Global Monitor Net trade will power up Singaporean GDP in Q1

  • U.S. - Core PCE back on track following the January jump
  • EUROZONE - EZ inflation likely fell to just over 2% in March; what now, ECB?
  • U.K. - House prices to rise 4% in 2024 as confidence returns
  • CHINA+ - China’s residential property market still festering; no big policy shift yet
  • EM ASIA - Firmer external demand should power up Singapore’s Q1 GDP
  • LATAM - Disinflation continues in Brazil, despite food-related pressures

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

27 March 2024 Global Monitor The SNB cut rates before the Fed, ECB and BoE

  • U.S. - Manufacturing output is stabilising, but a real rebound remains distant
  • EUROZONE - How will the ECB deal with inflationary fiscal tightening?
  • U.K. - How fast and how far can the MPC cut interest rates?
  • CHINA+ - Japan’s wage-price spiral still in its infancy; BoJ admits it moved early
  • EM ASIA - CBC hikes to nip the impact of higher electricity tariffs in the bud
  • LATAM - Banxico finally joins the LatAm easing party, but with caution

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

20 March 2024 Global Monitor BoE rate cuts are a few months away

  • U.S. - The wall between the Fed and the private sector is gone; rates now hurt
  • EUROZONE - How resilient is the consensus position on the ECB?
  • U.K. - No trigger for change by the MPC; rate cuts still a few months away
  • CHINA+ - China’s credit data point to a dull economy; policy uplift yet to come
  • EM ASIA - Raising our 2024 CPI forecast for India, and delaying the first RBI cut
  • LATAM - Chile’s recovery to continue, along with robust external accounts

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

13 March 2024 Global Monitor Fiscal policy to be the main driver of Chinese GDP growth this year

  • U.S. - Job growth is on the verge of a serious slowdown, perhaps in March 
  • EUROZONE - EZ economy at a standstill in Q4; Q1 will be better
  • U.K.- Strong real incomes to deliver an economic rebound in 2024
  • CHINA+ - NPC: China’s ramps up fiscal support, notably for industrial development 
  • EM ASIA - Be wary of extrapolating the solid start to 2024 in ASEAN’s PMI
  • LATAM - Rapid disinflation in Mexico opens the door to a rate cut this month

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

6 March 2024 Global Monitor Is services inflation too high for an BoE cut?

  • U.S. - Job growth is set to slow in spring, and cyclical job growth could stop
  • EUROZONE - Services inflation too hot for an ECB rate cut in April; June it is then 
  • U.K.- Forecast Review:  Sticky wage growth makes MPC cautious to cut 
  • CHINA+ - China’s Lunar New Year holiday-spending splurge won’t last
  • EM ASIA - 8% growth in India unsustainable, with consumption still lacking
  •  LATAM - Brazil’s economy stagnates in H2; bold rate cuts still needed

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

28 February 2024 Global Monitor Is EZ inflation falling quickly enough for a spring rate cut? We still think so

  • U.S. - Q: Where is the AI boom in the GDP numbers? A: Fast approaching
  • EUROZONE- Inflation to wobble around Easter; PMI implies recovery still coming 
  • U.K.- £20B package of tax cuts coming, despite fragile public finances
  • CHINA+ - BoK edging towards a rate cut; Q3 still most likely timing
  • EM ASIA - Chickens have come home to roost in Thai GDP; what an abysmal Q4
  • LATAM - Banxico to act on further evidence of Mexico’s slowdown and disinflation

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

21 February 2024 Global Monitor China tries to boost home demand, will it work?

  • U.S. - Most of last week’s numbers tell us little about trends, or the outlook
  • EUROZONE- Is the Eurozone falling behind the US on productivity, again? 
  • U.K.- Underlying Services Price Rises Still Slowing, Bolstering Rate Cut Hopes 
  • CHINA+ - China’s big five-year LPR cut signals focus on boosting home demand 
  • EM ASIA - Subianto’s decisive victory a short-term positive for continuity
  • LATAM - December’s IBC-Br confirms activity in Brazil ended Q4 on a strong note

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

14 February 2024 Global Monitor China is still exporting deflation in goods

  • U.S. - Fiscal policy is likely to be a headwind for growth this year
  • EUROZONE- Up close and personal with the seasonally adjusted EZ HICP data 
  • U.K.- Services CPI inflation likely rose above the MPC’s forecast in January 
  • CHINA+ - Chinese pricing trends signal weak activity; ignore the holiday noise
  • EM ASIA - Vehicle sales boost to Singaporean retail sales set to unwind in January 
  • LATAM - Finally, Banxico explicitly signals rate cuts; normalisation to start in March

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

7 February 2024 Global Monitor Where will bond yields in the Eurozone go in 2024?

  • U.S. - Whatever the truth about January jobs, the outlook for spring is weaker
  • EUROZONE- Presenting the EZ bond market in 2024, assuming a soft landing 
  • U.K.- Multiple rate cuts this year signalled, but not as many as investors expect
  • CHINA+ - Korea trade en route to a healthy recovery on strong WDA growth
  • EM ASIA - Philippines’ consensus-beating Q4 benefited hugely from soft cushions
  • LATAM - Central banks embrace policy normalisation, but with some caveats

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

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