In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Expect payback for May’s below-trend rise in the CPI over the summer
- EUROZONE - Jumbo cut from SNB incoming; EURUSD rally should peter out
- UK - MPC preview: on hold, but more open to a cut in August
- CHINA+ -China’s productivity opportunity can cushion demographic pressure
- EM ASIA - Malaysian retail sales remain weak, but high debt is no major worry
- LATAM - Mexico’s inflation rises again in May; Banxico to ease cautiously
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Mr. Trump is right; the labor market will need substantial Fed easing soon
- EUROZONE - Irish distortions return; we revise down our Q2 EZ GDP forecast
- UK - CPI preview: we still think May inflation will match the MPC’s call
- CHINA+ - China’s residential market enjoying only a modest boost
- EM ASIA - RBI’s surprise front-loading of cuts doesn’t mark the finish line
- LATAM - Uncertainty and caution behind Mexico’s faltering domestic demand
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rose as US importers rushed orders ahead of Tariff reprieve expiry.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: China's monthly exports rebounded in May, thanks to tariff reprieve.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
- In one line: Disinflation remains on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Front-loading most of this year’s remaining cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: China's manufacturing activity shrinks at a slower pace in May due to US tariff reprieve
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: Japan's core CPI surprise points to continued squeeze on real wages
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: BoK cuts to 2.50% on weaker growth outlook amid tariff war impact
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
- In one line: A bounce of sorts, but manufacturing is still shaky.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Korea's exports set back less severe than expected, as tariff reprieve offers breathing space
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
Plunge in Caixin manufacturing gauge won't trigger a knee-jerk policy response
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
In one line: All set for doves to take charge of ECB policy over the summer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Below zero; brace for a 50bp cut from the SNB.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Weaker consumers’ spending and higher core inflation lie ahead
- EUROZONE - Soft inflation data signal dovish ECB and SNB meetings in June
- UK - Forecast review: Stronger growth and sticky inflation take away a cut
- CHINA+ - China’s residential market enjoying only a modest boost
- EM ASIA - India’s investment-led Q1 leap is unreliable; consumers still in doubt
- LATAM - Solid start for Chile’s Q2 growth; subdued inflation pressures in Peru
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Manufacturing remains under pressure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
- In one line: Recovery maintaining a solid pace, but external headwinds still loom.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
