- In one line: A halfway-house approach in response to the grim Q3 GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Pointing to downside risks still, but probably overdoing it.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - November payrolls to indicate the trend is still slowing
- EUROZONE - ECB likely to cut by 25bp this month, and the same in January
- UK - MPC splits into three camps to match its three scenarios
- CHINA+ - Tokyo headline inflation jump mostly due to food and energy inflation
- EM ASIA -India’s disastrous Q3 GDP print has been long in the making
- LATAM -Brazil facing rising inflation and economic issues ahead of rate hikes
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Solid, but high interest rates will be a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
Tentative signs of improvement, but still weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
- In one line: Moving closer to the lower bound of BI’s target range; S/T stability coming.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A narrow and likely short-lived uptick.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Rising enough to prevent a 50bp cut in December, we think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - How expansionary will fiscal policy really be under President Trump?
- EUROZONE - November PMIs won’t be enough for a 50bp cut in December
- UK - Wage growth will exceed the MPC’s forecast
- CHINA+ - Japan’s core inflation is steady, despite headline dip in subsidies
- EM ASIA - BI stays on hold, spooked by Trump, but easing is far from over
- LATAM - Banxico faces challenges despite falling inflation and weak demand
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: A plunge, defying leading indicators.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Stung by falling activity and new orders; 12-month outlook slightly improved.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - October core PCE likely up 0.30%, but details will reassure the FOMC
- EUROZONE - What are the SNB’s options as it edges closer to a policy rate of 0%?
- UK - Mr. Trump’s tariffs will have a limited direct impact on UK GDP
- CHINA+ - China’s household spending boosted by policy; GDP growth target in reach
- EM ASIA - Don’t get carried away by Thailand’s scorching hot Q3 GDP
- LATAM - The LatAm service is on holiday this week, returning next week.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: An overdue bounce in demand from India moves the export recovery forward.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid Q3, but downside risks have emerged.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A December rate cut is only just barely alive; a weak Q3 GDP print could still sway things.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Mr. Trump’s win likely slams the door on rapid Fed normalization next year
- EUROZONE - Early elections in Germany will pave the way for looser fiscal policy
- UK - A cautious MPC will cut rates once per quarter at most
- CHINA+ - China refrains from knee-jerk response to Mr. Trump’s election win
- EM ASIA - GDP growth in Indonesia slips below 5% in Q3, as we predicted
- LATAM - LatAm central banks to adopt a hawkish stance post-US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Headline inflation rebounds as electricity tariffs rise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Rising inflation pressures on the back of bad weather conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
