In one line: Hanging on for dear life, but also likely underestimating the pace of growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: PMI lower by weakness in manufacturing; services and consumer sentiment are looking much better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Poor, but GDP growth is stronger than implied by the headlines.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - It’s much too early to make election-driven changes to macro forecasts
- EUROZONE - The ECB is less sure about a September rate cut than markets
- UK - Services inflation too strong for the MPC to cut rates in August
- CHINA+ - PBoC swings into action with early rate cuts to support growth
- EM ASIA - Malaysian 2024 GDP growth likely to beat government’s forecast
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: "September is wide open”, apparently.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: No signal of a cut in September; we look for such a signal at the press conference.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Another month, another hold; we still see cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - The June core PCE deflator likely rose by just 0.15%, below the Fed’s forecast
- EUROZONE - Will the ECB signal a September rate cut this week? We think so
- UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
CHINA+ - China hits a soft patch in Q2, as domestic demand dwindles
- EM ASIA - Manufacturing recovery likely still on the cards in Singapore
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Slip in export growth should be short-lived.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Vegetable prices are rearing their ugly head, again; industry is back to a two-track growth, this time with consumer durables racing ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Optimistic on growth but increased uncertainty on inflation.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Temporary pressures but underlying trends under control.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Core improvement amid weather-driven pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - Fears of a labor market downturn will supplant inflation worries at the Fed
- EUROZONE - Right wing in France suffers defeat, as do French pollsters
- UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
- CHINA+ - PBoC preparing to boost long-term bond yields
- EM ASIA - June CPI laying the groundwork for BSP and BoT cuts next month
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic tightrope; the COPOM faces a balancing act
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Upward revision doesn’t change picture of cooling output growth in June.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - May’s PCE data show the Fed has already done more than enough
- Eurozone - We’re lifting our EZ GDP growth forecasts for Q2, by 0.1pp to 0.3%
- UK - Forecast review: Cutting through a storm of strong data
- China+ - China’s light industry outperforms heavy industry, amid soft demand
- EM Asia - Thailand’s year-end digital cash handout will be no silver bullet
- LatAm - Banxico holds rates steady but signals potential for future cuts
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Virtually unchanged, but still on track for around 2% by August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Struggling as domestic demand falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Food disinflation intensifies, returning the headline back to BI’s target.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
