- In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Consumption growth is stabilizing, at a sluggish pace
- EUROZONE - EZ goods trade surplus nears zero as US exports continue to slide
- UK - Stabilising jobs and strong wage gains limit the MPC’s room to cut
- CHINA+ - China’s domestic demand swoons in the scorching summer heat
- EM ASIA - A fairly decent Q2, but Thai GDP growth will now slow more sharply
- LATAM - Banxico slows pace of easing as core inflation pressures persist
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation eases as demand cools.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - Pass-through from the tariffs slows, but is not complete yet
- EUROZONE - What can a New Keynesian Phillips curve say about EZ inflation?
- UK - The MPC are cautious, we expect no more rate cuts this year
- CHINA+ - Chinese exporters less willing to absorb higher tariffs in their margin
- EM ASIA - Philippines’ market-beating Q2 GDP doesn’t stand up to scrutiny
- LATAM - Banxico slows pace of easing as core inflation pressures persist
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, but risks linger.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Holding—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Dire July employment report makes a September easing far more likely
- EUROZONE - Our ECB and SNB rate cut calls now hang in the balance
- UK - Payroll falls should ease as tax hike drag begins to fade
- CHINA+ - China’s Politburo strikes confident tone about trade risks
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s retail sales shrink in Q2; downside risk to our 6.4% GDP call
- LATAM - Brazil holds rates steady as tariffs cloud growth and inflation outlook
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
- In one line: Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
- In one line: Mining volatility drags on Q2, but growth outlook holds firm.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Discount the base effects lifting food inflation; the headline should now stabilise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Export growth is in for a weaker H2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
