Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: A genuine surprise; at least three more cuts this year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, December

• In one line: Ignore the volatility, the trade surplus is growing, slowly.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: CPI, India, December

• In one line: Carpet being rolled out for a February rate cut.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, November

• In one line: A credible pop in growth, Diwali noise aside.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, December

• In one line: Reassuringly unchanged readings to close out 2024.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, December

• In one line: Let down by developed members.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: An anti-climactic end to the year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: A pause that will probably hold for the first few meetings in 2025.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, November

• In one line: A not-so-welcome leap in the trade surplus.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Nov. CPI & Oct. IP, India

In one line: No major surprises; red carpet being relaid for rate cuts.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision

• In one line: A halfway-house approach in response to the grim Q3 GDP.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, November

• In one line: Moving closer to the lower bound of BI’s target range; S/T stability coming.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, November

• In one line: A narrow and likely short-lived uptick.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Spooked by Trump’s win.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, October

• In one line: An overdue bounce in demand from India moves the export recovery forward.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: October CPI & September IP, India

• In one line: A December rate cut is only just barely alive; a weak Q3 GDP print could still sway things.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, October

• In one line: A quiet start to Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Expect easing to resume in November.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: The overdue turn we’ve been waiting for; expect another follow-up cut in December.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global