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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Eurozone, November 2023

In one line: A big decline; base effects in energy point to a snap-back in December.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, EZ, Q3

In one line: Hit by falling inventories; productivity fell further.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, October 2023

In one line: Confirming that output fell in each of the big four in October.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, October 2023

In one line: Not enough to convince us that net trade was a boost to GDP in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor

  • EZ GDP growth was stung by falling inventories in Q3, offsetting a rise in public and private spending.
  • The slowdown in investment is intensifying, but the outlook for household consumption is brightening.
  • We now think EZ GDP will rise by 0.5% this year, and next year too; no upward inflation pressures here.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor Italy Still in the Doldrums Despite Upward Revision to Q3 GDP

  • Italian GDP increased in Q3 rather than flat-lined, as the advance release had suggested...
  • ...It is still more likely to fall than rise in Q4, and we are lowering our forecasts for H1 2024.
  • BTPs are rallying, and we look for further gains; we see yields falling to just over 3% by mid 2024.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor ECB Will Cut Rates in H1 2024; the Only Question Is When

  • An ECB pivot is underway; it will be confirmed at next week’s policy meeting, and by the new forecasts.
  • The January HICP report and wage data remain risks to our call for a first rate cut in March.
  • Early data from France and Spain suggest euro area manufacturing slowed further at the start of Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor Swiss Inflation Slides; SNB Can Hold Fire Again Next Week

  • Swiss inflation fell in November and has now been in line with the SNB’s target for six months...
  • ...It will likely slide further in H1 next year, after a probable small base-effects driven rise in December.
  • Coupled with weak growth, the stars should align for the SNB to start cutting its key rate by March.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, December 2023

In one line: A modest rise, but still consistent with upside risks for the PMI.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, October 2023

In one line: Net exports in goods seem on track for a rise in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Switzerland, Q3 2023

In one line: Outperforming the EZ and defying the slump in the surveys.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor What Is the Likelihood of an Upturn in Manufacturing in Q1?

  • EZ manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial production remains on track for a decline in Q4.
  • Manufacturing employment is now falling steadily; will it pull the broader labour market down?
  • It’s early days, but we’re starting to feel excited about better-looking manufacturing surveys in Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence