In one line: Going nowhere, but turnover jumped in February.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Industrial production in the Eurozone likely jumped in February but fell over Q1 as a whole.
- Retail sales data point to a subdued EZ consumer in Q1, but the services numbers will look better.
- Our Nowcast model points to EZ GDP stagnating in Q1, but it is too downbeat; a 0.2% rise is more likely.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation surprised to the downside in March, but not enough for the ECB to pull the trigger next week.
- Services inflation was sustained by the early Easter in March; it will come down sharply in April.
- We expect EZ headline inflation to stabilise around 2% from August through to Q1 next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ inflation on track to undershoot the consensus tomorrow.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Early HICP numbers point to downside risks to EZ inflation, but beware Easter effects in Germany.
- A soaring French budget deficit in 2023 raises the risk of a confidence-denting income tax hike in 2024.
- The Eurozone money supply data are picking up, supporting a further rebound in the composite PMI.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
ECB MONETARY EASING WILL BEGIN SOON...
- ...APRIL IS LIVE, BUT JUNE IS MORE LIKELY
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid, but is fiscal tightening now a downside risk?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German consumer confidence remains depressed, but the headlines are poor indicators of spending.
- Rising real income growth and a stabilisation in the labour market are tailwinds for German consumers…
- ...But early-Q1 data on retail and car sales point to near-term downside risks for consumption growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boosted by a soaring surplus in goods.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Lifted by strong momentum in Southern Europe.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Better, but likely not enough to prevent another decline in GDP in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: On track for a rise in Q1, surprisingly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Investor sentiment is still rising; a dovish plunge in EZ labour cost growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Falling imports are still lifting EZ net trade in goods.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation dipped in February, matching the first estimate; upside risks are now building for March.
- An upward surprise in the March and April inflation reports would put a June rate cut in jeopardy.
- We still struggle to see a perfect landing for inflation at 2%; how will the ECB respond to this?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
