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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, February 2024

In one line: The core is sticky, but will fall back soon; beware an incoming rebound in food inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor Don't bet on the March HICP to deliver an April rate cut

  • Comments from ECB policymakers are keeping hopes of an April rate cut alive, but we still see June.
  • The bar is high for the March HICP to deliver a down- side surprise big enough for the ECB to cut in April.
  • We think bond yields will drift lower over the summer, before an inflection point in late Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, January 2024

In one line: Likely the beginning of a more sustained softening in net exports.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ economy at a standstill in Q4; Q1 will be better

  • The EZ economy remained stuck in the mud in Q4; we think growth is now rebounding, slightly.
  • A rise in consumers’ spending and a lift from inventories should be key drivers of growth in 2024.
  • Industrial output in Germany and Spain rose in January, but a plunge in Ireland will drive the EZ headline.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, March 2024

In one line: Virtually similar to January, which is now a hawkish line. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, January 2024

In one line: Ignore volatility in major orders; the trend in core orders is still down.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor ECB gives the green light for a 25bp rate cut in June

  • The ECB will cut its policy rate in June, barring a big upside surprise in the inflation numbers.
  • Markets now see 100bp-worth of cuts this year; we think the ECB is happy with this picture.
  • Factory orders in Germany crashed in January, but mostly due to volatility in major orders.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, January 2024

In one line: Soft, but manufacturing likely will only be a small drag on Q1 GDP growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor ECB to take a victory lap this week; core inflation is still sticky

  • The ECB will open the door to a June rate cut this week, while emphasising the risk of sticky inflation.
  • Staff projections will show a downgrade to the ECB’s headline inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
  • Utility margins in the Eurozone are soaring; this will soon become a hot potato for policymakers.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor Services inflation too hot for an ECB rate cut in April; June it is then

  • Hopes for a spring ECB rate cut have been dashed; we now see the first of four 2024 rate cuts in June.
  • Services inflation in the Eurozone is still running hot; it likely won’t drop much below 3% this year.
  • Absent a negative shock, underlying inflation in the EZ will struggle to return to 2% on a sustained basis.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, February 2024

In one line: Pegged back by a plunge in food inflation; the core HICP likely fell.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France,

In one line: Inflation fell further, but less than we anticipated; January spending was resilient to plunge in auto sales.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation fell in February, likely matching consensus expectations

  • EZ inflation fell further in February, probably to 2.5%; we think core inflation dipped by 0.3pp, to 3.0%.
  • Consumers’ spending in the EZ got off to a slow start in Q1, but don’t write off the recovery just yet.
  • The Swiss economy defied our expectations in Q4, boosted by strong growth in domestic demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumer Confidence, Germany & France, Mar/Feb 2024

In one line: Mixed, but consistent with a modest recovery in consumption growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

February 2023 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE ECB IS DONE HIKING; EASING WILL BEGIN SOON

  • ...WE STILL SEE A FIRST RATE CUT IN APRIL

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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