Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
- Swiss inflation fell sharply in January, beneath our below-consensus forecast...
- ...We are sticking to our call that the SNB will first cut its key policy rate in March, by 25bp to 1.50%.
- It will likely follow this up with 75bp-worth of cuts, split between 50bp in June and 25bp in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss GDP likely fell in Q4 last year; it will recover this year as real disposable income growth rebounds.
- But base effects mean GDP growth will slow to 0.7% this year, from 1.2% last year.
- Inflation will stay low, the SNB will match ECB cuts to starve off CHF appreciation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Advance GDP data show the EZ economy barely budged last year.
- Spanish inflation rose in January; we see no reason to alter our French and German calls in response...
- ...But we are revising up our EZ inflation forecast by 0.1pp to 2.4%.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- ECB hawks will pounce on signs from the PMI of continued upward price pressures in services...
- ...But the PMIs continue to suggest the EZ economy remains in a rut & manufacturing costs are sliding.
- January’s inflation read will be more decisive for the timing of the ECB’s first rate cut; March is our call.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Lending standards were tightened again in Q4, albeit less than in Q3; banks blamed risk perception.
- Demand for loans again fell across the board, partly reflecting the continued rise in interest rates.
- ECB doves can use the BLS to argue that financial conditions can ease, but will they?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The fall in EZ residential house prices was extended in Q3, and likely again in Q4.
- In 2024, house prices should recover somewhat as demand rebounds, but not until the end of the year.
- We look for house prices to fall by 3.5% this year after a likely near-2% decline in 2023.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian industrial output fell in November, defying the otherwise decent trail of hard data for Q4.
- We are sticking to our call for a 0.2% slide in GDP, setting up a weak base for this year.
- Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth will rebound this year, but the recovery will be gradual and tepid.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The small increase in Swiss inflation in December leaves it in line with the SNB’s target...
- ...Inflation will fall back soon, despite the VAT hike; we look for the Bank to cut its policy rate in March.
- EZ unemployment will rise, though only marginally; still-low joblessness need not deter ECB rate cuts.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP is likely to rebound from Q1 next year, albeit slowly; consensus expects a quicker recovery.
- Inflation will fall more sharply than the consensus or ECB expects in H1, if we are correct on January…
- ...If so, the ECB will cut rates five times next year, starting in March, earlier than consensus expects.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German consumer confidence is on the rise but risks to our consumption call remain to the downside.
- The EZ current account surplus climbed in October; the trend in the euro suggests it will decline soon.
- EZ construction started Q4 on a rough note, and all signs point to the struggle stretching into 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BTP-Bund spread is currently around 175bp, but we think it will fall to 100bp by end-2024...
- ..In line with the current spread between Spanish government-bond yields and Bund yields...
- ...Faster QT than we anticipate risks preventing the spread from falling to 100bp.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian GDP increased in Q3 rather than flat-lined, as the advance release had suggested...
- ...It is still more likely to fall than rise in Q4, and we are lowering our forecasts for H1 2024.
- BTPs are rallying, and we look for further gains; we see yields falling to just over 3% by mid 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Interest-rate and core-inflation differentials suggest the EUR is currently undervalued against the USD...
- ...Political uncertainty measures suggest it is right where it should be, at 1.10...
- On balance, we think EURUSD will trade between 1.10 and 1.15 for most of 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The second estimate of Q3 GDP confirms it fell; we look for another decline in Q4 and a short recession.
- Investor sentiment data suggest the tide will turn in Q1, in line with our forecast for a rebound in GDP.
- Indeed, wage data suggest wage growth eased further at the start of Q4, but only marginally.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Retail sales slid in each month in Q3, making it a quarter to forget for the sector.
- Services spending rose in August, picking up the slack; surveys suggest it won’t do so again in Q4.
- We are revising down our consumption call for Q4 and therefore now look for a shallow EZ recession.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The slide in Swiss inflation appears to have stalled but we do not think the SNB needs to panic-hike.
- GDP in Switzerland likely fell in Q3—following in Ger- many’s footsteps—and likely will decline again in Q4.
- The election outcome means we should expect “more of the same” on the Swiss fiscal front.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
