Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Easing M1 growth offset by falling inflation, for now.
DOVISH INFLATION DATA SET UP A NERVY Q1 FOR THE ECB...
- …BUT THE BAR FOR FURTHER EASING REMAINS HIGH
- Money supply and credit data signal a stable trend in EZ GDP growth, at 0.3% quarter-to-quarter.
- The headline ESI index jumped to a post-Covid high in January, signalling upside risk to growth.
- ESI selling price expectations eased in January, but upside risk to services inflation lingers.
In one line: Solid details, but will it be sustained?
- EURUSD eyeing 1.20 and beyond adds to the dovish pressure on the ECB ahead of the January HICP…
- …A EURUSD move above 1.22 in coming weeks would likely lower the ECB’s core inflation forecast.
- Italian survey data support our view that a turn in the inventory cycle boosted Q4 GDP.
In one line: Stable, with little change in the key components.
- The EU and India, against a challenging global trade backdrop, have signed the mother of all trade deals.
- Both sides made concessions on agriculture and climate to reach a “win-win” free trade agreement.
- The direct boost to EU GDP from rising exports to India is small, but the indirect lift could be greater.
- We see downside risks to the early inflation data for January in Germany and Spain, out this week…
- …But we’re slightly above the consensus on Eurozone Q4 GDP growth, at 0.3%.
- Will the January jump in the services output price PMI be replicated in the EC survey? We doubt it.
In one line: Decent, but now signals downside risks relative to official forecasts.
In one line: Strength in manufacturing, but PMIs signal weakness in services.
- EZ PMIs were resilient in January but now signal downside risk to growth relative to official forecasts.
- The risk of a dovish surprise in the PMIs in Q1 has increased, given upbeat growth expectations.
- Rising output prices in services are a key hawkish detail in the January PMIs; will this be sustained?
- President Trump has backed down on Greenland, bringing relief to Nuuk, Copenhagen and markets.
- The EZ budget deficit widened in Q3, driven mainly by a significant increase in Germany’s deficit.
- Risks to Germany’s fiscal push remain tilted towards near-term disappointment on growth.
- Investor sentiment soared at the start of 2026, but geopolitical tremors now hint at a slide in February.
- EZ construction output fell in November, but we still look for a decent gain over Q4 as a whole…
- …Leading indicators for construction in France and Germany are improving, slowly.
- Can the EU and Denmark find an off-ramp for Mr. Trump in Greenland that avoids war? We hope so.
- The downward revision to EZ inflation in December underscores dovish risk to ECB policy bets in Q1.
- We see EZ inflation falling to 1.6% in January, though these data are a wild card due to one-off effects.
In one line: The probability of further ECB easing is underpriced.
- The Mercosur trade deal is an opportunity for Europe to regain regional influence it has ceded to China…
- …We think EU farmers are better off than without the deal, despite their continued opposition.
- The plunge in German inflation in December is confirmed; how far will inflation fall in January?
In one line: Upside risks building for Q4 GDP growth.
In one line: Back to growth; reversal of net trade drag a big upside risk to 2026 growth.
In one line: One more decline coming in January before a rebound.
- GDP growth looks set to beat the MPC’s forecast in Q4 2025, after November’s 0.3% gain.
- The recovery in autos manufacturing has little further to run, but underlying activity looks solid to us.
- Construction output is falling rapidly, closing the gap on the PMI and representing a downside risk to GDP.
