- Headline inflation in Singapore rose in May, as higher COE prices pushed up transport inflation…
- …But the real story is core inflation staying at 3.1% for a third straight month, due to sticky services.
- The Taiwanese retail outlook looks weak for now, but the likelihood of stronger wage growth has risen.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Weakness in consumer demand remains, despite improvement in headline.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Core inflation in Singapore remains unchanged in May, despite headline rise
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A not-so-emphatic return to the black, once adjusted for seasonality.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A decent end to Q2 for India's sky-high, if questionable, PMIs
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s sky-high PMIs were mixed in Q2; services lost steam, but manufacturing hit new heights…
- …The year- over-year story is soft, though, with both gauges combined pointing to sub -6% GDP growth.
- Hiring has supposedly gone up a level in recent months, but the hard data tell a very different story.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A non-event; expect more of the same through Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Export growth surprises to the upside, as electronics roar ahead
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysia’s export growth surprised to the upside in May, thanks to a sharp rise in electronics exports…
- …This more than compensated for a fall in commodity exports and a drag from re-exports.
- Adverse base effects aside, electronics exports still has more fuel in the tank for a further recovery.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The 2024 volatility in Indonesian exports continued in May, this time resulting in a hefty bounce-back…
- …The overall trend is still range-bound though, and China’s uneven recovery continues to pose a risk.
- We have upgraded our current account forecast, with real import demand deteriorating further.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Semiconductor export growth makes an impressive recovery in Singapore
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- It’s not often that a growth figure of -0.1% brings joy, but it did in the case of Singapore’s May exports...
- ...We found much to celebrate, as semiconductor exports are finally showing signs of life.
- We still expect the recovery in exports to be gradual but now see stronger signs of its likely durability.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Upstream core price pressures are now clearly reviving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Food CPI in India will soon tank on base effects, but don’t underestimate the improving monthly story…
- …Inflation expectations remain unfazed, though more signs are pointing to a U-turn in core inflation.
- Average inflation should still fall to 4.6% this year, but we have raised our 2025 forecast to 4.5%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Tapping an RRR hike to cool the property market.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The CBC made no change to its policy rate yesterday, but raised its RRR by 0.25pp...
- ...To stymie the flow of credit to the property sector, which has brushed off previous cooling measures.
- We expect the CBC to stay on hold, but upside risks to inflation might provoke another hike in Q3.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia