Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- GDP growth in Thailand fell to 1.5% in Q3, from 1.8% in Q2, missing the consensus for a bounce...
- ...Quarterly growth firmed up, but only because imports hit a wall; the destocking cycle has begun.
- We have cut our GDP outlook and still see a further slowdown in 2024 to 2.2%, from 2.4% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP held its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, following October’s out-of-cycle hike...
- ...Its hawkish blind spot fails to recognise that policy will tighten markedly in 2024 even if it stays on hold.
- Two-way trade growth in Indonesia continued to recover in October, but the devil is in the detail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s trade deficit plunged to an historic low of -$31.5B in October, due partly to painful seasonals.
- Negative oil effects will soon reverse, and we welcome the October bounce in non-oil imports.
- Upstream price pressures remain benign, making soon-to-be-sticky CPI inflation easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect India’s Q3 GDP at end-November to show a big drop in growth to 4.2%, from 7.8% in Q2.
- The flattering boost from discrepancies in Q2 is unreliable, and consumption was weak in Q3.
- Disinflation, which continued in October, will likely partly unwind in the short run, due to onion prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines surprised to the upside in Q3, leaping to 5.9%, from 4.3% in Q2...
- ...But largely thanks to an unsustainable bounce in public spending; fiscal consolidation isn’t over.
- Consumption continues to slow amid weak balance sheets, while lacklustre investment is here to stay.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in the Philippines plunged in October, making the BSP’s recent hike look more reckless...
- ...The U-turn in rice prices is now feeding through, and the unbroken core disinflation is far from over.
- Outright deflation has taken hold in Thailand, but it should be relatively mild and last until early Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Indonesia slowed to 4.9% in Q3, from 5.2% in Q2, falling just shy of expectations...
- ...Public and private consumption were largely to blame, and improvement any time soon is unlikely.
- Exports were grim, but the worst is over; the same cannot be said, however, for equipment capex.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BNM maintains the overnight policy rate at 3.00% at its November meeting...
- ...As it prioritised supporting domestic demand while using FX intervention to support the MYR.
- We expect the BNM to hold rates steady for most of 2024, cutting rates only once by 25bp in Q4.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
