Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Indonesian GDP growth rebounded slightly to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.9% in Q3, in line with expectations...
- ...But the uptick owes a lot to inventories, which can’t be relied on, with external demand still fragile.
- Private domestic demand ended 2023 softly; we still expect annual growth to slip to 4.8% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines cooled only modestly in Q4 to 5.6%, from 6.0% in Q3...
- ...Trade and government spending were big drags, offset inconsequentially by inventories and noise.
- Fixed investment was the only real bright spot, but this is also benefiting still from the Covid catch-up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The MAS maintained the appreciative slope of its S$NEER policy band at its January meeting...
- ...As it reiterated the current elevated core inflation outlook, while downplaying growth concerns.
- We see the MAS digging in to rein in core inflation, maintaining the policy band for the rest of 2024.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s partial trade numbers for January point to a sharp monthly correction in two-way flows.
- The absolute retail sales numbers cast a lot of doubt over the supposedly gentle slide in growth.
- Headline inflation is likely to remain sticky in H1, but it should inevitably follow the core rate down.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BNM remained on hold at its January meeting, keeping its policy rate at 3.00%...
- ...Even though core and headline inflation are falling; significant uncertainty surrounds the outlook.
- The pace and strength of the recovery in export growth should determine the BNM’s next move .
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean inflation picked up unexpectedly in December to 3.7%, from 3.6% in November...
- ...As a rise in transport and services inflation offset the impact from continued food disinflation.
- With inflation uncomfortably high, while the growth outlook remains weak, the MAS is likely to hold.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in Malaysia cooled last year, dropping to 2.5%, from 3.4% in 2022...
- ...Helped by fuel deflation in early 2023, while food disinflation gathered strength in Q4.
- The BNM is likely to stay put at tomorrow’s meeting, with inflation below its pre-pandemic average.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean non-oil domestic export growth fell into the red in December, as we predicted...
- ...With support to the headline from volatile categories unwinding, and electronics weakening.
- Sticking to our Q2 call for BI rate cuts; policy easing has started in less urgent conditions in the past.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Net trade will likely shave 0.4pp off Indonesia's Q4 GDP growth, supporting our soft 4.7% forecast...
- ...But the underlying trends are positive; import base effects and stalling tourism will be to blame.
- India’s trade gap has narrowed swiftly from the record low in October; we examine the main drivers.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in India rose modestly in December, to 5.7%, on the back of a—final—leap in food inflation.
- The core inflation picture keeps improving; ultimately this will dictate the path of the headline.
- The year-long upswing in industrial production growth is over, leaving aside the acute Diwali noise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian retail sales growth increased to 4.4% in November, from 3.9% in October...
- ...Supported by friendlier base effects and seasonal spending, which offset moderating price growth.
- We expect retail sales growth to stabilise around 5-to-6% this year, as employment growth wanes.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We look for a massive downward surprise in India’s December CPI, as onion prices have collapsed.
- Unofficial core inflation likely softened further too, falling below 4% for the first time since end-2019.
- Indonesian retail sales growth slowed unexpectedly in November; sub-zero prints are around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s 7.3% advance estimate for 2023/24 GDP growth implies a consensus-beating Q4 and Q1...
- ...But the PMIs already point to a big expectations miss in Q4; at least core price pressures are fading.
- Base effects and vehicle sales play starring roles in Singapore’s retail sales in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s scorching Q4 GDP print is no ‘mission accomplished’; the result is somewhat misleading.
- Sequential momentum appears to have peaked in Q3, and the Q4 jump in industry looks fragile.
- The second half of 2023 benefited hugely from the initial—and likely unrepeatable—bounce in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Q4 GDP growth in Singapore surprised to the upside, jumping to 2.8%, from 1.0% in Q3...
- ...Boosted by a rebound in the manufacturing sector and robust construction activity.
- We will look to upgrade our 2024 forecast of 1.7% if external demand continues to hold up in Q1.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia’s rebranded benchmark rate—the BI rate —was held at 6.00%, as universally expected.
- BI understandably urged caution on food inflation, but base effects here will soon give a helping hand.
- With the core still subdued, the headline should fall below BI’s new target in Q2, paving the way for cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian export growth fell in November, but this was expected, due to unfriendly base effects…
- … And it should not be extrapolated as a sign of slowing export growth momentum.
- Headline growth in December will likely increase on the back of a turnaround in electronics exports.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth finally returned to the black in November after 13 months…
- …But the recovery is likely to be gradual, as weak demand weighs on the pace of inventory clearance.
- The slow march in electronics exports will likely show more strongly next year.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas left its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% this month, as expected.
- The Board’s statement still sounds very hawkish, but we think this facade is starting to crumble…
- …Governor Remolona has been MIA, and we see no belief behind their 4.2% inflation forecast for 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Underlying the softer-than-expected November bounce in Indian inflation is fading food pressures…
- …We’re happy with our below-consensus 3.5% call for 2024, especially with core inflation still falling.
- We see no reason to celebrate IP growth leaping to a 16-month high in October; it’s just Diwali noise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
