Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- We look for a massive downward surprise in India’s December CPI, as onion prices have collapsed.
- Unofficial core inflation likely softened further too, falling below 4% for the first time since end-2019.
- Indonesian retail sales growth slowed unexpectedly in November; sub-zero prints are around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s 7.3% advance estimate for 2023/24 GDP growth implies a consensus-beating Q4 and Q1...
- ...But the PMIs already point to a big expectations miss in Q4; at least core price pressures are fading.
- Base effects and vehicle sales play starring roles in Singapore’s retail sales in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s scorching Q4 GDP print is no ‘mission accomplished’; the result is somewhat misleading.
- Sequential momentum appears to have peaked in Q3, and the Q4 jump in industry looks fragile.
- The second half of 2023 benefited hugely from the initial—and likely unrepeatable—bounce in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia’s rebranded benchmark rate—the BI rate —was held at 6.00%, as universally expected.
- BI understandably urged caution on food inflation, but base effects here will soon give a helping hand.
- With the core still subdued, the headline should fall below BI’s new target in Q2, paving the way for cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas left its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% this month, as expected.
- The Board’s statement still sounds very hawkish, but we think this facade is starting to crumble…
- …Governor Remolona has been MIA, and we see no belief behind their 4.2% inflation forecast for 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Underlying the softer-than-expected November bounce in Indian inflation is fading food pressures…
- …We’re happy with our below-consensus 3.5% call for 2024, especially with core inflation still falling.
- We see no reason to celebrate IP growth leaping to a 16-month high in October; it’s just Diwali noise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales grow th has made a steady recovery lately, but historically it remains sub-par…
- … A return to the red in Q1 can’t be ruled out; catchup growth will weaken and confidence is fading.
- Malaysian retail sales grow th drops to a 22-month low, as slowing real wage growth takes its toll.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s brief spell of CPI deflation should end in January, despite November’s downside surprise.
- We still believe average inflation will fall sharply in 2024, even if power tariffs shoot up next month.
- Sales growth in the Philippines kicked off Q4 poorly, but the nascent and fragile recovery remains intact.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s PMIs combined, are the softest they’ve been in a year, pointing clearly to a GDP payback in Q4.
- Food inflation in the Philippines is reversing, but don’t forget about entrenched core disinflation.
- Singaporean retail sales growth has fallen to an eight-month low, but fundamentals remain strong.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in India slowed trivially in Q3, to 7.6%, but the flattery of discrepancies remains absurd.
- The drop in consumption growth is no one-off; finances are weakening and the credit binge is over.
- The impact of tightening is surfacing more clearly in M3, with cash growth down and deposit growth up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT finally hit pause yesterday after eight straight hikes, leaving the policy rate, at 2.50%...
- ...We continue to expect 50bp of easing next year; the Bank is behind the curve on GDP and CPI.
- Vietnam’s growth recovery is becoming more broad-based; we now expect Q4 GDP of 5.4%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai exports and imports in October grew year-over-year—together—for the first time in 13 months.
- But downside risks to exports prevail, and oil effects are largely behind the return of import growth.
- Malaysian inflation cooled further to 1.8% in October, from 1.9%, dropping to a 29-month low.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BI stood pat yesterday after October’s surprise hike; we maintain that easing is just around the corner.
- We no longer expect a fourth 50bp rate cut from the SBV, with M2 growth now clearly turning a corner.
- Jump in Singaporean inflation in October should not distract from a likely sharp drop in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand fell to 1.5% in Q3, from 1.8% in Q2, missing the consensus for a bounce...
- ...Quarterly growth firmed up, but only because imports hit a wall; the destocking cycle has begun.
- We have cut our GDP outlook and still see a further slowdown in 2024 to 2.2%, from 2.4% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP held its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, following October’s out-of-cycle hike...
- ...Its hawkish blind spot fails to recognise that policy will tighten markedly in 2024 even if it stays on hold.
- Two-way trade growth in Indonesia continued to recover in October, but the devil is in the detail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s trade deficit plunged to an historic low of -$31.5B in October, due partly to painful seasonals.
- Negative oil effects will soon reverse, and we welcome the October bounce in non-oil imports.
- Upstream price pressures remain benign, making soon-to-be-sticky CPI inflation easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
