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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

30 August 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor No Miracle in Sight in Q3 to Help Vietnam Hit its 2023 GDP Target

  • Vietnam’s economy continued to hit and miss in August, supporting our 4.3% GDP call for Q3.
  • Industry is doing much of the heavy lifting, but it still faces big downside risks locally and externally.
  • The August pop in inflation was due just to easing in transport deflation; we still expect a fourth SBV cut.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 25 August 2023

Demand from EM Asia is—yet again—letting Thai exports down
Friendly base effects and moderating food inflation weigh on headline CPI in Malaysia

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

29 August 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Consumption Base Effects will Flatter India's Q2 GDP Print

  • Indian GDP growth likely firmed up to 6.9% in Q2, from 6.1% in Q1, but will fall short of expectations...
  • ...Consumption base effects will do a lot of heavy lifting, masking a further drop in quarterly growth.
  • Malaysian inflation fell to 2.0% in July, from 2.4% in June, on helpful base effects and food disinflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

  • In one line: Another month, another hold; rinse and repeat until November, at least.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 August 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Charting the Real Struggles of Indonesian Households

  • Bank Indonesia yesterday left its 7-day reverse repo rate at 5.75%, as near-universally expected.
  • We continue to believe that slowing inflation will open the door to modest cuts from December.
  • The apparent strength in private consumption in the GDP data is dubious; our charts show why.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 August 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Watch Out, as Helpful Base Effects in Singaporean Inflation Wane

  • Headline inflation in Singapore continues to fall, aided by helpful base effects and fuel disinflation...
  • ...But keep a close eye over the coming months, as these sources of disinflation start to lose strength.
  • The pace of disinflation will likely moderate from October, especially with core showing stickiness.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

22 August 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai GDP Just Avoids a Contraction in Q2, Thanks Solely to Consumers

  • Thai GDP growth slowed to 1.8% year-over-year in Q2, from 2.6% in Q1, well short of expectations.
  • Still-punchy consumption helped avert an outright quarterly contraction, but spending is on thin ice.
  • Exports continue to face a rocky short-run outlook, though capex should reawaken by year-end.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18 August 2023

Weak external demand takes a toll on Q2 Malaysian GDP
Malaysian export growth continued to languish in the red in July

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 August 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Weak External Demand Pummels Malaysian GDP Growth in Q2

  • Enter some text here...The sharp fall in merchandise trade drags Q2 Malaysian GDP growth to a new post-Covid low...
  • ...With little reprieve in sight, as commodity prices will likely remain subdued on soft global growth.
  • Keep a close eye on domestic demand in H2, as this will probably be the main source of growth.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

  • In one line: Expect another easy hold in September, before big decisions need to be made in Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 August 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Tough Start to Q3 for Singaporean Non-Oil Domestic Exports

  • Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore fell deeper into the red in July...
  • ...And a sharp turnaround is off the table, although signs of a bottoming-out are appearing.
  • The BSP is sounding more worried about growth, strengthening our call for rate cuts in Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 August 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Rupiah's Trade Cushion to Deflate Completely by Mid-2024

  • Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in July, due largely to a big bounce in consumer goods imports.
  • The outlook for exports remains weak, and the surplus will probably vanish in Q2 next year.
  • We have cut our 2024 current account call to -2.4% of GDP, implying a huge drop from -0.2% this year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, July

  • In one line: A temporary pause in the steady consolidation of the deficit.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, May

  • In one line: The tomato price surge wreaks more havoc, but the worst of the headline surge should be over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 August 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor India's Economy Still Quite Disinflationary, Food Risks Aside

  • India’s headline CPI and WPI numbers leapt in July, as the tomato-price surge continues...
  • ...But the worst of this year’s crisis is over, and the wider backdrop remains largely disinflationary.
  • Inflation expectations are still rolling over, firms have arguably fading price power, and stocks are ample.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, July

  • In one line: Food prices rear their ugly head at the wholesale level.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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