PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 October 2025

The RBI’s pause continues, but further easing is still very much on the table
A sturdy—but narrow—end-Q3 bump in ASEAN manufacturing
Ignore the August jump in Indonesia's surplus; import demand is crashing
Food inflation is firming up fast in Indonesia, but core disinflation is a strong anchor

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, July

• In one line: A collapse long in the making; still some way to go before growth falls back down to earth.

2 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Still a matter of when, not if, the RBI will cut again; we look for December

• The RBI stayed on hold yesterday, but two members called for more dovish implied forward guidance…
• …Its latest GDP forecasts reveal no real faith in the stimulative impact of GST 2.0; we concur.
• Bank on ASEAN’s robust September PMI at your own risk, as underlying it is a very skewed picture.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 September 2025

Real import demand in the Philippines has had a bleak Q3, so far

1 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's IP Q3-to-date: more robust than Q2, but with a few caveats

• Ignore the miss in Indian IP in August; the recent stasis is breaking, and the fixed capex signal is solid.
• Retail sales growth in Thailand crashed back down to earth in July, but expect much more softness…
• …Consumption growth is seeing some stability alongside tourist arrivals; local demand is still weak.