July 2024 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

MALAYSIA'S AND VIETNAM’S ‘HOT’ Q2 IN CONTEXT

• …FOOD PRICE PRESSURES IN INDIA ARE REBUILDING; UGH

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 19 July 2024

Malaysia's economy fired on all cylinders in Q2

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

22 July 2024 Emerging Asia Malaysian 2024 GDP growth likely to beat government's forecast

• Malaysia’s advance GDP growth print for Q2 was much stronger than consensus, at 5.8%...
• ... As construction activity picked up and stronger external demand boosted manufacturing growth.
• We still see GDP growth in 2024 at 5.2%, higher than the government’s forecast of 4-to -5%.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18 July 2024

Base effects dominate Malaysian trade figures in June

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 July 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian export growth to benefit from commodities uplift in H2

• Malaysian headline export growth slowed in June on weaker re-export and electronics growth…
• …Adverse base effects dominated the headline damage though, masking a monthly improvement.
• The electronics recovery and stronger commodities exports should support headline growth in H2.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Another month, another hold; we still see cuts in Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17 July 2024

Disappointing Q2 end for Singaporean NODX

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 July 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Singaporean export growth to see a more durable recovery in H2

• Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore ended H2 on a disappointing note…
• …As electronics and non-monetary gold exports slumped, even as intermediate goods rose.
• Electronics exports look unlikely to regain May’s high, but H2 should still see a growth recovery.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, June

• In one line: Overdue crash in oil imports masks a further—welcome—rise in non-oil imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 July 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Expect a hefty net trade boost in Indonesia's Q2 GDP

• Two-way goods trade in Indonesia rebounded robustly in Q2, mainly thanks to EM demand…
• …But the tourism recovery is still waning; expect a 0.9pp net trade lift to GDP, up from -0.2pp in Q1.
• Food price pressures in India are building again, forcing us to raise our 2024 and 2025 CPI outlook.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia