Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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PMIs indicate a decent start to Q3 for India’s economy
US front-loading in Thailand is still going strong
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s PMIs continued to regain momentum in July on a three-month rolling basis, despite services dip.
- They point to waning downside risk to GDP growth this year, but the clouds over 2026 are darkening.
- Thailand’s near-full Q2 trade data point to a smaller but still-big net GDP boost, at +4.4pp from +7.0pp.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s retail sales were worse than we expected in June, as they declined by 2.9% year-over-year.
- This spells trouble for consumption in next week’s Q2 GDP; overall growth should still come in strong.
- Malaysian inflation fell yet again, to 1.1%, while the government has announced more fuel subsidies.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Indian core IP growth rose for a second straight month in June, to 1.7%, after its April plunge…
- …Refined petroleum product growth has recovered and should stabilise from here on out.
- Overall momentum is still deteriorating, however, with the electricity slump particularly worrying.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A skin-deep reprieve, if at all, from waning underlying momentum.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian GDP growth rose in Q2, beating consensus and exactly matching our 4.5% forecast .
- Still, manufacturing and mining are showing worrying signs and face further headwinds.
- Singapore’s surprisingly strong Q2 GDP likely will be just a respite; expect a sharper slowdown in H2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia surprised the thin consensus for a hold yesterday with its fourth 25bp rate reduction…
- …We continue to see an end-2025 rate of 4.75%, especially given BI’s rising anxiety over loan growth.
- Indian net exports were grim in Q2, even with US front-loading, but this won’t be seen year-over-year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s two main inflation gauges were very soft in June, with food prices now deflating at all levels…
- …Food deflation at the retail level will likely persist until the end of 2025, due in part to base effects.
- We have downgraded our average CPI forecasts for this year and next to 2.5% and 4.9%, respectively.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Outright food deflation is here, as predicted.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysia’s retail sales are still weak; sales volumes registered no month-to-month increase in May.
- Real wage growth has been stagnant since the pandemic, weighing on disposable incomes.
- Q2 GDP will get no lift from consumption, but the recent rate cut could help Q3
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Modest, on-and-off deflation looks set to be the theme for H2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Front-loaded exports from EM Asia will start to correct in H2, even if US “reciprocal” tariffs soften.
- A few economies are much less exposed, though; we note a couple of sector-specific upside risks.
- Longer term, we maintain that EM Asia exports will have a brighter future, supporting their markets.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesian sales remain tepid, at best… stimulus ‘pop’ looking small
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BNM made its first rate cut in five years, reducing the overnight policy rate to 2.75% from 3.00%.
- The Bank is clearly prioritising weak consumption and exports above the risk of re-sparking inflation.
- Indonesian retail sales remain subpar in spite of the May bounce; no early signs of a stimulus boost.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Another month of exports above 30% in Taiwan, as they fail to moderate despite our expectation.
- This will be good news for Q2 GDP year-over-year, which is highly correlated with exports.
- Food and housing costs are finally down consistently, helping to keep inflation below 2%.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Vietnam jumped to 8.0% in Q2 from 7.1% in Q1, comfortably outstripping all forecasts…
- …But brisk export front-loading to the US will unwind shortly, especially with a ‘deal’ now in place.
- We have raised our 2025 GDP forecast to 6.9%, implying an H2 slowdown to an average of 6.4%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A few more months of modest Thai deflation on the cards
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
