The Philippines’ Q2 GDP was a skin-deep, consensus-beating print
Sales numbers show worsening momentum heading into Q3
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Philippines’ Q2 GDP beat expectations slightly, with yearly growth ticking up to 5.5% from 5.4%…
- …But this was down largely to a misleading U-turn in net exports, masking a weakening domestically.
- We reiterate our below-consensus 5.3% forecast for 2025, implying a renewed slowdown in H2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The RBI holds—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down
An initial sign that the front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US is over
A decent start to Q3 for still-depressed Vietnamese retail sales
Transport deflation re-steepens in Vietnam; it's here to stay, for now
June leap in Thai food inflation reverses completely
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI stood pat this month, commendably in the wake of the tariff outcry; we still see one more cut.
- Vietnamese exports comfortably beat expectations in July, but US front-loading looks finally to be over.
- Taiwan inflation edged up, on higher education and entertainment costs, though this is likely temporary.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Big investment rebound drives Indonesia’s Q2 upside surprise
July should mark the low for Philippine inflation, but short-term downside risks dominate
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s Q2 GDP defied expectations, with growth rising to 5.1% on the back of investment…
- …Consumption was stable, unsurprisingly, but our more realistic proxy series shows a Q2 jump.
- The Philippines’ soft July CPI print was no surprise to us, but should mark the low of the current cycle.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now
Indonesian export growth is in for a weaker H2
Discount the base effects lifting Indonesian food inflation; the headline should now stabilise
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI returned to the black in July, just, for the first time since “Liberation Day ”…
- …But leading indicators remain bleak; the US’s ‘final’ tariffs are at least broadly a win for EM Asia.
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore paused and set a high bar for more easing in the short run.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A—slightly—more credible print; consumption, in reality, slowed further in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese GDP growth rose to 8.0% in Q2, from 5.5%, driven by extremely strong exports…
- …Other components were basically non-existent; investment suffered a sharp slowdown.
- Exports may not be driven purely by front-loading, as genuine demand exists for chips, thanks to AI.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
Philippine trade was flattered hugely by base effects in June
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
BI CUTS IN JULY; NEW BOT CHIEF TO RESTART EASING
- …EARLY Q2 GDP RESULTS ALL SEE UPSIDE SURPRISES
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Two-way trade in the Philippines easily beat the consensus in June, but base effects helped hugely…
- …Still, underlying the inflated headlines are real recoveries in chip exports and capital goods imports.
- Net exports will be the star of the show in next week’s Q2 GDP; we now see the headline at 5.3%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian IP growth sank to a 10-month low in June, but the huge upgrade to May cushions this blow.
- Overall momentum continues to deteriorate, pouring a lot of cold water over the rosy PMIs…
- …The slump in consumer firms continues, but expect to see ‘better’ manufacturing in Q2 GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s Q2 fiscal belt-tightening is reassuring in terms of policy credibility, if bad for growth,…
- …The urgency to restrain spending should fade from Q3, with revenue growth set to recover gradually.
- The overtly dovish Mr. Vitai has been chosen to head the BoT; we now see two 25bp rate cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
PMIs indicate a decent start to Q3 for India’s economy
US front-loading in Thailand is still going strong
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s PMIs continued to regain momentum in July on a three-month rolling basis, despite services dip.
- They point to waning downside risk to GDP growth this year, but the clouds over 2026 are darkening.
- Thailand’s near-full Q2 trade data point to a smaller but still-big net GDP boost, at +4.4pp from +7.0pp.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s retail sales were worse than we expected in June, as they declined by 2.9% year-over-year.
- This spells trouble for consumption in next week’s Q2 GDP; overall growth should still come in strong.
- Malaysian inflation fell yet again, to 1.1%, while the government has announced more fuel subsidies.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Indian core IP growth rose for a second straight month in June, to 1.7%, after its April plunge…
- …Refined petroleum product growth has recovered and should stabilise from here on out.
- Overall momentum is still deteriorating, however, with the electricity slump particularly worrying.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
