EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, April 2026

• In one line: An insurance hike; most probably a “one and done”.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 April 2026

Indian PMIs rebounding on the back of the fragile ceasefire

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, April 2026

• In one line: Another month, another hold, as global assumptions are downgraded further.

23 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor BI's IDR worries are skin-deep; it's right to expect some retracement

• BI remained on hold for a seventh straight meeting; the consensus, like us, now expects a long pause.
• BI’s attention remains on IDR stability, for now, but the speed of the sell-off so far is manageable. 
• We agree with the Bank that the IDR is looking undervalued; it should start to find its feet next year.

22 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI surveys show no material and immediate threat to underlying CPI

• The H2 oil outlook is still largely improving, but normalising food CPI remains the issue in India…
• …Reassuringly, inflation expectations are still subdued, and firms are set to swallow higher costs.
• Taiwanese export growth surprised substantially in March, with electronics still flying.

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, March 2026

• In one line: Grim end to an already forgetful Q1; glaring war impact on fertiliser output.

21 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor GDP growth in Singapore and Malaysia markedly lower in Q1

• We were correct about Singapore’s GDP growth moderating sharply in Q1; it fell to 4.6%…
• …The MAS increased the rate of appreciation for its  policy band; it is rightly worried about inflation.
• Malaysian GDP growth cooled in Q1, as widely expected, with services slowing sharply.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 20 April 2026

Malaysian electronic exports are down, just when commodities perk up

20 April 2026 Emerging Asia Has Singapore taken Hong Kong's crown as a financial hub for Asia?

• We think GDP growth in Singapore will slow to 3.0% this year, with risks tilted to the downside.
• Singapore has cemented its role as a financial hub in Asia, which has been helped by policy...
• ...But further expansion could be limited if Hong Kong manages to lure back banks and workers.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, March 2026

• In one line: Not as bad as we all thought.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 April 2026

RBI is keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause

9 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI's April CPI forecasts alreadydated; we cut our 2026 call to 3.7%

• The RBI stayed on hold, as expected, while its new CPI outlook already looks dated, post-ceasefire…
• …A smaller diesel-price hike is now likely, and food gains have peaked; we see 2026 CPI at 3.7%.
• Taiwan’s inflation fell more than expected in March; the CBC‘s red line looks secure, for now.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Thailand, March 2026

• In one line: The bigger jolt will come in April.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 April 2026

Oil surge leads to an immediate breach of the BSP’s target range
Recovering domestic demand will soon hit a brick wall

8 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's solid Q1 GDP may be as good as it gets in 2026

• GDP growth in Vietnam cooled just a tad in Q1, to 8.0% from 8.3%, if stripping out residual seasonality.
• We still see full-year 2026 growth moderating to 7.5%; high export base effects are now in the frame.
• This oil shock is looking worse for Vietnam than the one in 2022; we’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to 4.8%.

7 April 2026 Emerging Asia Indonesia's austerity drive partly a catch-up play; fuel hike still likely

• Indonesia made a host of current spending cuts last week, but we still think a fuel-price hike is likely.
• Real GST growth in India held steady in March, indicating no rapid hit from the war or INR fallout.
• We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Thailand further, to 1.3%, given the latest diesel-price rise.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 April 2026

Iran war hits most ASEAN factories hard; price shock immediate and big
Indonesia’s trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days
A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects

2 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Inflation, not growth, is a bigger near-term issue for ASEAN factories

• Stagflationary signs were seen in ASEAN’s PMI, as in India, but inflation is a bigger worry for the former.
• Indonesia’s soft March CPI is a big misdirect; we now see an eventual fuel price hike of 5% this year…
• …February’s export print was a let-down, but should mark the year’s low, as commodities will soon help.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, January 2026

• In one line: Underlying spending growth was still in recovery mode pre-Iran war.

1 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Confirmation the GST pop in Indian IP is over; fuel-tax cut no relief

• India’s Feb. IP validates our above-consensus call, but the post-GST pop in consumer goods is done…
• …Output looks poised to hit a wall in March; last week’s fuel-tax cuts buy consumers time, not relief.
• Thai consumption was having a decent Q1 pre-war, amid an easing in structural high-debt headwinds.