26 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Silicon Valley's capex spree spells good long-term news for Taiwan

• Taiwan is experiencing a boom in demand for its electronics, namely semiconductors and AI servers.
• These are key components in the large data centres being built by Big Tech firms in the AI arms race.
• Taiwanese exports are likely to stay strong if Big Tech continues with its capex plans.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 August 2025

India’s flash PMIs for August shrug off Trump’s 50% tariff threat

EM Asia Datanote: Core IP, India, July

• In one line: A reassuring and much-needed turn in overall momentum and, especially, in electricity production.

22 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Recovery in India's PMIs finally entering a meaningful stage

• India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
• …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
• Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, August 2025

• In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.

21 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BI's urgency to cut faster since July in context; expect at least one more

• Bank Indonesia surprised again this month by lowering the BI rate by a further 25bp to 5.00%…
• …We reiterate our 4.75% end-2025 call; the recent food CPI pop is skin-deep and the core is fading.
• Malaysian exports surprised everyone by expanding in July, after two months of contraction.

19 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor A fairly decent Q2, but Thai GDP growth will now slow more sharply

• Thai GDP growth in Q2 was largely in line with expectations, cooling to 2.8% from 3.2%…
• …Export front-loading was still a big part of the story, but this lift should now unwind quickly in H2.
• We still see a broad slowdown, but our 2025 and 2026 forecasts now stand at 2.0% and 1.8%.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18 August 2025

US tariff themes aplenty in Thailand’s Q2; expect a faster slowdown in H2

18 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Demographics, demographics, demographics...still a big boon

• EM Asia's contribution to world growth continues to rise, thanks in no small part to its demographics…
• …Working-age populations won’t peak for another two decades, but chinks in the armour are emerging.
• We expect a further softening in Thai GDP growth in Q2, to 2.7%; look for a much smaller q/q trade lift.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 August 2025

The Philippines’ Q2 GDP was a skin-deep, consensus-beating print
Sales numbers show worsening momentum heading into Q3

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 August 2025

The RBI holds—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down
An initial sign that the front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US is over
A decent start to Q3 for still-depressed Vietnamese retail sales
Transport deflation re-steepens in Vietnam; it's here to stay, for now
June leap in Thai food inflation reverses completely

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 August 2025

Big investment rebound drives Indonesia’s Q2 upside surprise
July should mark the low for Philippine inflation, but short-term downside risks dominate

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 August 2025

Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now
Indonesian export growth is in for a weaker H2
Discount the base effects lifting Indonesian food inflation; the headline should now stabilise

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, May

• In one line: A—slightly—more credible print; consumption, in reality, slowed further in Q2.