In one line: Transport, hospitality and insurance are key drivers of sticky services inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Transport, hospitality and insurance are key drivers of sticky services inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Semiconductor export growth makes an impressive recovery in Singapore
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Inflation pressures reassuringly absent, given the surge in shipping costs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our Homebase model points to a mere 125K rise in private payrolls in June, the least since October.
- Retail sales likely recovered in May from a subpar April, but the trend looks less robust.
- Industrial production likely picked up in May; surveys have nudged up and hours worked have risen.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s economic activity stalled in April, and down-side risks are intensifying, due mainly to the floods.
- The COPOM is likely to pause its easing this week, amid inflation concerns and despite faltering growth.
- Peru’s economy is rebounding in Q2, boosted by primary sectors, and the outlook remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s May activity data point to a modest uptick in consumer spending on services and appliances.
- Industrial-equipment upgrade policies are propelling fixed asset investment growth.
- Expect little shift in policy direction; the focus will be on the implementation of existing policy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The EZ hourly labour cost growth data were the final wage indicators to be published for Q1…
- ...The data confirm wage growth picked up in Q1, but mainly due to one-offs in Germany.
- Wage growth will slow in due course, but a July rate cut is off the table; September is not certain either.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The next government will inevitably raise taxes and public spending more than budgeted for currently.
- We expect that to support sterling by helping to keep market interest rates elevated.
- We forecast GBPUSD to rise to 1.33 at the end of the year, with risks to the upside.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China activity bolstered by equipment upgrade and home appliance trade-in policies, despite weak property and auto sales
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A further slowdown in consumption growth seems increasingly likely.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Government bond issuance props up credit creation, as M1 takes a dive
Duncan WrigleyChina+