In one line: Disappointin manufacturing in Italy, a still-rising Sentix and political drama in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The NY Fed survey shows wage growth and long-run inflation expectations are in line with the 2010s.
- People plan to spend 5% more over the next year, but expectations correlate poorly with actual spending.
- Tight credit conditions are weighing heavily on small firms, an ominous sign for the economy at large.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s trade surplus is holding steady, despite exports slowing amid challenging conditions…
- …Imports are showing signs of recovery, but tight financial conditions are limiting growth.
- Colombia’s current account deficit has shrunk, despite weak domestic demand and ongoing challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Europe has swung to the right in the EP elections, but not dramatically so; Greens and Liberals lost big.
- Snap parliamentary elections in France could well hand Marine Le Pen the job of prime minister.
- Would a RN government ruin the party’s chance of a successful presidential bid in 2027? Perhaps.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC forecast.
- We estimate that half of the April services inflation surprise was a one-off that will drop out in May.
- The MPC can still cut Bank Rate in August as long as inflation keeps slowing, but it will be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in May, driven mainly by valuation effect of exchange rate
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan's revised Q1 GDP still points to miserable domestic demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: The labour market bottoms out.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Upside pressures will keep policymakers on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Upside pressures will keep policymakers on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Modest core pressures point to further monetary easing this month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Modest core pressures point to further monetary easing this month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Net exports did the heavy lifting, but the trend in consumption looks decent.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Fret not, the recovery in electronics exports is still in place.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Sign of life in manufacturing; is real net trade weakening?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A cut in August now certainly looks off the table.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
An RBI cut in August now certainly looks off the table
The policy-induced upswing in Thai inflation shouldn’t bother the MPC
Don’t put too much stock into the April leap in Philippine sales
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China's robust May export growth largely propelled by shipments to ASEAN
Duncan WrigleyChina+
