- In one line: Cautious consumers keep private sales falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Tough start to Q2 for Singaporean consumption
No breach of the BSP’s inflation target range to see here
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The trend in German jobless claims points to a rise in the national unemployment rate to above 6%.
- Surveys signal a rebound in employment growth, but the trend in vacancies is still depressed.
- Real wage growth in Germany soared at the start of 2024, but vacancies point to downside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Is the rise in jobless claims accelerating?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Retail sales bounce back from April’s catastrophe.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- US - Core PCE numbers are improving, but more progress needed for rate cuts
- EUROZONE - All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week
- UK - Forecast review: Persistence means patience for the MPC
- CHINA+ - US tariffs on “new trio” to have limited impact on Chinese exports
- EM ASIA - The devil’s in the details of India’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP print
- LATAM - Landslide victory in Mexico gives MORENA strong political capital
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The drop in the Atlanta Fed Q2 GDPNow estimate says very little; it's still far more model than tracking.
- April's JOLTS report brings further signs of labor market normalization. Lower wage growth is likely to follow.
- ADP's data and the employment index of the ISM services survey are hopeless indicators of payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s economic rebound faces a number of headwinds despite solid Q1 growth.
- High interest rates and severe floods will dampen Brazil’s growth prospects over the coming quarters.
- Inflation in Peru cooled in May, paving the way for further rate cuts amid policy uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BJP’s disappointing result in the 2024 election means the risk of coalition politics in India is back.
- The PMI for ASEAN rebounded well in May, thanks to the fragile recovery of the region’s key exporters.
- Indonesia’s softer-than-expected May CPI bolsters our dovish 2024 view on rates and inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
- Almost all the slowdown comes from core goods and services, as large base effects reduce annual inflation.
- We expect services inflation to slow but still exceed the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Korea’s export recovery continues, led by strong ICT demand and lumpy ship exports
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Manufacturing recovery fizzling out before it has even begun.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Under pressure on a sequential basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global