A solid headline number, but the labor market is a weak spot.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Slowing inflation will make the MPC happy.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
ADP is too unreliable to take seriously, though it’s consistent with our payroll forecast.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Cautious consumers keep private sales falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Tough start to Q2 for Singaporean consumption
No breach of the BSP’s inflation target range to see here
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The French sovereign debt rating downgrade passed without fanfare, but is it a sign of things to come?
- Industrial production in France rose at the start of Q2 and looks on track for a rebound after a poor Q1.
- The PMIs suggest a mild cyclical upswing is now underway in the Eurozone economy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The final composite PMI for May points to 0.25% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Firms are responding to rising output by hiring, suggesting official employment data will rebound soon.
- The PMI indicates services inflation will slow ahead of the MPC’s August interest rate decision.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The trend in German jobless claims points to a rise in the national unemployment rate to above 6%.
- Surveys signal a rebound in employment growth, but the trend in vacancies is still depressed.
- Real wage growth in Germany soared at the start of 2024, but vacancies point to downside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Is the rise in jobless claims accelerating?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Retail sales bounce back from April’s catastrophe.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- US - Core PCE numbers are improving, but more progress needed for rate cuts
- EUROZONE - All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week
- UK - Forecast review: Persistence means patience for the MPC
- CHINA+ - US tariffs on “new trio” to have limited impact on Chinese exports
- EM ASIA - The devil’s in the details of India’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP print
- LATAM - Landslide victory in Mexico gives MORENA strong political capital
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The drop in the Atlanta Fed Q2 GDPNow estimate says very little; it's still far more model than tracking.
- April's JOLTS report brings further signs of labor market normalization. Lower wage growth is likely to follow.
- ADP's data and the employment index of the ISM services survey are hopeless indicators of payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s economic rebound faces a number of headwinds despite solid Q1 growth.
- High interest rates and severe floods will dampen Brazil’s growth prospects over the coming quarters.
- Inflation in Peru cooled in May, paving the way for further rate cuts amid policy uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
